Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
645 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Saturday night)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Aug 11 2016

Main forecast concern for the next 24 hours will be the cold front
to push through tonight into Fri morning. This front currently
extends from northeast Nebraska into west central KS and is
continuing to push south. Storms are expected to develop soon over
west central KS as the right entrance region of a jet max slides
over the area. In addition, increased surface convergence should
also lead to development prior to 00z. Convection is expected to
increase in coverage this evening as 850-700mb moisture transport
ramps up along with most of the area under diffluent flow aloft.
While widespread severe storms are not anticipated, can't rule out
a wet microburst and small hail with any storm. With PW values
remaining around or just over 2", very high rainfall rates will be
likely with any shower or storm tonight, so wouldn't be shocked to
see a few flood warnings issued.

The good news regarding prolonged flooding is that the front will
be fairly progressive as it pushes south, before stalling out
over OK/AR Fri through the weekend. So for Fri, the better precip
chances will be over the southern portion of the forecast area
with only SE KS holding onto POPs for Fri night into Sat. The
passage of the front will return the area to more seasonal temps
with highs in the mid and upper 80s expected for Fri through the
weekend.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 307 PM CDT Thu Aug 11 2016

The next feature to keep an eye on will be a tropical impulse
that is expected to track north out of the se TX/LA Gulf coast
area. Both the GFS and ECMWF lift this energy north over the
arklatex region Sat night and into far eastern OK/AR by Sun
evening. This should enhance the areal extent of rainfall along
the stalled surface front for Sun night through Mon night. While
it still looks like the more significant rainfall will occur from eastern
Ok into southern MO and AR, cant rule out that some of it may clip
far se KS. Temps should remain fairly comfortable through these
extended periods with highs at or slightly below seasonal
averages.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 644 PM CDT Thu Aug 11 2016

Main aviation issues are timing and magnitude of convection
during this period. Strong-severe storms anticipated throughout
the evening at KRSL-KSLN-KGBD-KHUT with storms potentially waning
a bit later tonight with loss of surface heating and in absence of
strong baroclinic zone in mid levels. Current convection is ahead
of cold front, which will slowly move into the area late
tonight/tomorrow morning. Some MVFR ceilings possible in the
vicinity of front in central KS. -Howerton

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    75  88  71  87 /  50  50  30  10
Hutchinson      74  87  69  86 /  50  50  20  10
Newton          74  87  70  86 /  60  60  20  10
ElDorado        75  88  71  86 /  60  60  30  10
Winfield-KWLD   75  89  72  88 /  40  40  40  20
Russell         70  86  66  87 /  60  20  10  10
Great Bend      70  86  66  87 /  50  20  10  10
Salina          73  87  68  89 /  70  60  10  10
McPherson       73  87  69  87 /  60  60  20  10
Coffeyville     76  92  73  87 /  30  50  60  30
Chanute         75  89  72  86 /  30  50  40  10
Iola            75  88  72  86 /  40  50  40  10
Parsons-KPPF    75  91  72  86 /  30  50  50  20

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ049>053-067>072-
082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...PJH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
809 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-130115-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
809 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS,
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT
OVER MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SOME STRONG STORMS
WITH TORRENTIAL RAIN...40 TO 50 MPH WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE
LIKELY. AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WITH WINDS AROUND 60 MPH IS
POSSIBLE. LOCALIZED FLOODING IS POSSIBLE. THE STORMS WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST KANSAS OVERNIGHT...HOWEVER THE
INTENSITY OF THE STORMS IS EXPECTED TO WANE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA ON
FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN KANSAS. THE STRONGER STORMS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WILL BE CAPABLE OF 50 MPH WINDS
AND HEAVY RAIN WHICH MAY LEAD TO FLOODING. STORM CHANCES WILL
GRADUALLY DIMINISH FROM NORTH TO SOUTH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. STORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO FAR SOUTHEAST KANSAS
SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY WITH HEAVY RAIN BEING THE MAIN THREAT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
740 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

KSZ033-048>051-120130-
SALINE KS-ELLSWORTH KS-MCPHERSON KS-LINCOLN KS-RICE KS-
740 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
  ELLSWORTH COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
  WESTERN MCPHERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN LINCOLN COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
  RICE COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 739 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR GENESEO...OR
  12 MILES NORTHEAST OF LYONS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LYONS...ELLSWORTH...STERLING...WILSON...KANOPOLIS...MARQUETTE...
  LITTLE RIVER...CHASE...HOLYROOD...BUSHTON...GENESEO...BROOKVILLE...
  ALDEN...LORRAINE...WINDOM...FREDERICK...ELLSWORTH AIRPORT...
  KANOPOLIS STATE PARK...WESTFALL AND KANOPOLIS LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK FOR
MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

PERSONS IN CAMPGROUNDS SHOULD CONSIDER SEEKING STURDY SHELTER UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

&&

LAT...LON 3900 9795 3828 9768 3818 9828 3857 9847
      3887 9848
TIME...MOT...LOC 0040Z 216DEG 32KT 3850 9808

METZGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
802 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0625 PM     TSTM WND GST     2 W BUNKER HILL         38.87N 98.74W
08/11/2016  M62 MPH          RUSSELL            KS   MESONET

            DELAYED REPORT OF A MEASURED WIND SPEED BY GAUGE OPERATED
            BY UNION PACIFIC.

&&

CWH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
822 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

KSZ049-051-052-120200-
SALINE KS-MCPHERSON KS-MARION KS-
822 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SALINE COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
  MCPHERSON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN MARION COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

* AT 818 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM NEAR CULVER TO 6 MILES EAST OF INMAN...AND MOVING
  EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SALINA...MCPHERSON...LINDSBORG...MOUNDRIDGE...INMAN...GALVA...
  CANTON...MARQUETTE...GOESSEL...ASSARIA...GYPSUM...SMOLAN...
  LEHIGH...NEW CAMBRIA...FALUN...MCPHERSON AIRPORT...KIPP...
  SALINA AIRPORT...BRIDGEPORT AND ROXBURY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK FOR
MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

PERSONS IN CAMPGROUNDS SHOULD CONSIDER SEEKING STURDY SHELTER UNTIL
THESE STORMS PASS.

&&

LAT...LON 3896 9738 3861 9737 3861 9722 3817 9737
      3817 9787 3818 9787 3896 9782
TIME...MOT...LOC 0122Z 266DEG 34KT 3896 9768 3819 9766

METZGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
853 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

KSZ082-091-120245-
HARPER KS-KINGMAN KS-
853 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  HARPER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  SOUTHERN KINGMAN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 945 PM CDT

* AT 852 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR ATTICA...
  MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  ANTHONY...HARPER...ATTICA...NORWICH...NASHVILLE...WILLOWDALE...
  ZENDA...SPIVEY...BLUFF CITY...DANVILLE...FREEPORT...
  CRYSTAL SPRINGS...RAGO...RUNNYMEDE AND CORWIN.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK FOR
MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

PERSONS IN CAMPGROUNDS SHOULD CONSIDER SEEKING STURDY SHELTER UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9835 3738 9835 3739 9846 3753 9846
      3753 9781 3701 9780
TIME...MOT...LOC 0153Z 266DEG 34KT 3716 9823

METZGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
917 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

KSZ068-083-120300-
SEDGWICK KS-HARVEY KS-
917 PM CDT THU AUG 11 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN SEDGWICK COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  HARVEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1000 PM CDT

* AT 915 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR HALSTEAD...
  MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  NEWTON...HESSTON...HALSTEAD...NORTH NEWTON...SEDGWICK...
  WHITEWATER...BENTLEY...WALTON AND NEWTON AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK FOR
MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

PERSONS IN CAMPGROUNDS SHOULD CONSIDER SEEKING STURDY SHELTER UNTIL
THIS STORM PASSES.

&&

LAT...LON 3783 9763 3809 9761 3818 9716 3817 9715
      3790 9715
TIME...MOT...LOC 0217Z 250DEG 34KT 3796 9752

METZGER