Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
602 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Saturday night)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2016

Main concern is convective trends and potential for heavy rainfall
and severe weather today. The quasi-stationary front across far
southern Kansas will be the focus for this convection where strong
instability and strong deep layer shear will be present. An elevated
cluster of storms is already underway over northwest Kansas which
should continue to move east-southeast across central Kansas through
mid-morning with some upscale growth possible. Diurnal heating
should aid in additional development by midday into the afternoon
which should sweep east-southeast across southern Kansas. Some of
this activity is expected to become severe with locally heavy
rainfall also probable. The main challenge is the progression of
the afternoon convection and how much will fester into the evening
and tonight. The latest consensus continues to support a faster
north-south demise in PoPs across the forecast area with the bulk of
the convection pushing south into Oklahoma tonight. Otherwise it
will be relatively cooler the next couple of days with periodic
chances for convection in the disturbed west-northwest flow aloft
as the moisture begins to return northward again across Kansas
later Friday into Saturday.

Darmofal

.LONG TERM...(Sunday through Wednesday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2016

Upper ridge builds in earnest over the central CONUS during the
period with the center of the high over Kansas by Tuesday and
Wednesday. This should ensure a dry and hot regime with many areas
of central Kansas at or above the century mark.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Friday morning)
Issued at 559 AM CDT Thu Jul 14 2016

EXPECTING NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP AND MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION FOR THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. SOME OF
THE STORMS COULD BECOME STRONG/SEVERE. THE ACTIVITY WILL MAINLY
AFFECT SOUTHERN KANSAS AS THE DAY GOES ON THEN BEGIN TO MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
SETTLE OVER THE AREA FOR LATER TONIGHT.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    89  67  87  68 /  60  60  40  50
Hutchinson      87  66  86  67 /  60  50  40  50
Newton          87  66  86  67 /  60  50  30  50
ElDorado        88  67  86  68 /  60  60  30  50
Winfield-KWLD   90  68  88  69 /  70  70  40  50
Russell         85  64  86  65 /  70  30  30  50
Great Bend      85  65  87  65 /  70  30  40  50
Salina          87  65  88  67 /  60  30  30  50
McPherson       86  66  86  67 /  60  40  30  50
Coffeyville     92  68  88  69 /  70  70  30  50
Chanute         90  67  87  68 /  60  60  30  40
Iola            89  67  87  68 /  50  50  30  40
Parsons-KPPF    91  68  88  69 /  60  60  30  50

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...CDJ

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
408 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-150915-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
408 AM CDT THU JUL 14 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS,
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FROM LATE
THIS MORNING UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. THE AREA AT GREATEST RISK
IS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A GREAT BEND TO MCPHERSON TO COTTONWOOD
FALLS LINE. THE MAIN RISKS WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS TO 70 MPH AND
GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED
WITH MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ON FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY. STRONG STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A SLIGHT
RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS ON FRIDAY ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL
KANSAS.

MORE INTENSE HEAT IS EXPECTED TO BUILD ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA
NEXT WEEK...WITH HEAT INDICES DURING THE AFTERNOON EXPECTED TO
CLIMB TO AROUND 105 DEGREES OR HIGHER.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS
SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

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