Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
658 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2016

Low confidence forecast. Models have been struggling with
outflow/convective trends of late, and given synoptic pattern,
see little change in predictability beyond about the first period.
Some small chance for storms this afternoon/evening in southeast
KS, but based on current observations/trends, thinking cap will
hold. Current thinking is cumulus field on satellite extending from
Northwest to Southeast KS may portend the track of storms
tonight. Thinking high plains storms will eventually develop
somewhere in Northwest KS near/after sunset, then track southeast
during the night along rich moisture axis. Will trend pops that
way. This will result in extensive clouds/precipitation lingering
on Friday across forecast area, and trended temperatures down a
bit. That said, if storms do not develop overnight, chances for
strong-severe storms increases ahead of surface boundary in the
afternoon. Given uncertainty in precipitation and resultant
temperatures tomorrow, opted not to extend heat advisory at this
time. Beyond that, the entire forecast will hinge on amount/extent
of convection and location of ouflow boundaries. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 313 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2016

Little change in extended forecast with front potentially hung up
somewhere in the forecast area by both GFS/ECMWF taken at face
value. However similar to the short term, predictibilty in timing
of shortwaves moving through mainly zonal flow and resultant mcs
is low. Clouds/precipitation will have significant impact on
temperatures as well, with some days warmer/some cooler than
initialization grids. -Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Friday evening)
Issued at 656 PM CDT Thu Jul 7 2016

Expecting mainly VFR conditions overnight into early Fri with main
concerns being nocturnal convective chances. Still could have an
very small chance of an isolated storm along a weak outflow boundary
to the north of KCNU in ern KS, but this chance looks too small to
mention in the KCNU Taf.

Will keep an eye on convective trends to the west of the forecast
area, either in NW KS or SW KS. If convection in either location can
grow upscale overnight, this convection will drift east-southeast
overnight, potentially impacting portions of Central and South
Central KS. Not alot of confidence in either area growing upscale,
but think the better chance appears to be over South Central KS as
SW KS convection will be fed by increasing low level moisture
transport into SW KS.  So will go with a VCTS for both the KGBD and
KHUT Tafs late tonight after 10z/Fri. Could see some of this shower
activity linger across South Central KS into Fri morning, so will
include a VCSH for KICT as well.

Ketcham

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    73  91  71  90 /  20  40  40  30
Hutchinson      72  89  70  89 /  30  40  40  30
Newton          72  89  70  87 /  20  40  50  40
ElDorado        73  90  71  86 /  20  40  50  40
Winfield-KWLD   74  92  72  91 /  20  40  50  40
Russell         69  89  68  91 /  40  40  50  20
Great Bend      70  89  69  91 /  40  40  40  20
Salina          72  92  71  89 /  30  30  50  30
McPherson       71  89  69  88 /  30  40  50  30
Coffeyville     75  93  72  88 /  10  40  50  50
Chanute         74  92  72  86 /  10  30  50  50
Iola            74  91  72  84 /  10  30  50  50
Parsons-KPPF    74  92  73  85 /  10  40  50  50

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for KSZ049>053-067>072-
082-083-091>096-098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...KETCHAM

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
831 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

KSZ070-071-080200-
WOODSON KS-GREENWOOD KS-
831 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHWESTERN WOODSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  NORTHEASTERN GREENWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

* AT 828 PM CDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
  DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
  NEAR MADISON...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS AND WINDS UP TO 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS THUNDERSTORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  MADISON AND VIRGIL.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3791 9579 3806 9636 3817 9633 3817 9596
      3804 9596 3804 9575
TIME...MOT...LOC 0128Z 283DEG 37KT 3814 9624

ES