Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
335 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Sunday night)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Tonight-Friday:
Convective trends will be the big issue. Barely capped, decently
unstable and weakly forced atmosphere will result in isolated to
scattered thunderstorms through sunset across southern half of
forecast area. A few strong-marginally severe storms are possible.
With loss of heating, expect storms to wane quickly at sunset.
Storms will increase late tonight as 850MB flow increases, along
with increasing 850MB-700MB frontogenesis and convergence. Expect
fairly widespread rain spreading across the area towards
daybreak as Western KS storms move/develop eastward. Good chance
that rain/storms will linger well into the afternoon in the east.
Temperatures rather tricky tomorrow with much depending on how
quickly rain/clouds exit.

Friday night-Sunday:
Considerable uncertainty throughout this period, with model
verification of MCS tracks poor over the past week or so, and not
optimistic that today's runs are any better. That said, will
likely be a baroclinic zone somewhere across KS with potential for
multiple rounds of strong storms producing copious rainfall
somewhere in the state. By the weekend precipitable water over 2
inch is forecast by both NAM/GFS. Given uncertainty of timing/
location of heavy rain, will not hoist flood watch at this time
but will mention heavy rain in hazardous weather outlook.
Temperatures also a big unknown, with temperatures likely only in
the 70s in areas where clouds/rain persist throughout the day.
Southern sections may see fair amount of Sunday and hedged
temperatures warmer there. One significant caveat, if storms/
rain shield is large/robust, effective front could push closer to
the OK border, resulting in heavy rain shifting further south
than currently anticipated. Best chance of precipitation appears
late Saturday into Sunday as shortwave moves across the area. -Howerton

.LONG TERM...(Monday through Thursday)
Issued at 327 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Little changes made to initialization grids. Initial zonal flow
transitions to more ridging by end of period. This will result in
warming temperatures and decreasing chances for precipitation.
-Howerton

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Friday afternoon)
Issued at 1242 PM CDT Thu Jun 30 2016

Cannot rule out a few isolated thunderstorms mid/late this
afternoon and evening over southern KS along a stalling frontal
zone. Suspect activity will be fairly isolated given marginal
convergence and little upper support. Given this fact, left
mention out of Wichita and Chanute TAFs. Better chances for
showers and thunderstorms arrive late tonight and especially
Friday, as the stalled frontal zone sharpens across the region
and shortwave energy begins to approach from the west. Given
uncertainty on timing and location of precipitation, only inserted
VCSH instead of VCTS at all sites for now.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    70  85  68  90 /  30  50  40  40
Hutchinson      68  82  66  85 /  40  50  50  50
Newton          68  82  65  85 /  30  50  50  50
ElDorado        69  82  67  89 /  20  50  50  40
Winfield-KWLD   71  87  70  94 /  30  50  30  30
Russell         66  80  62  79 /  50  50  60  60
Great Bend      67  81  64  83 /  50  50  60  50
Salina          68  82  64  83 /  30  50  60  60
McPherson       67  81  64  84 /  40  50  60  60
Coffeyville     71  85  69  93 /  20  50  30  20
Chanute         70  83  67  89 /  30  50  50  40
Iola            69  82  66  87 /  20  50  50  50
Parsons-KPPF    70  84  69  91 /  20  50  40  30

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...PJH
LONG TERM...PJH
AVIATION...ADK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
430 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-012130-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
430 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS,
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SCATTERED STORMS WILL UNTIL AROUND SUNSET MAINLY SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
400. BRIEF HEAVY RAIN...WINDS OF 50 TO 60 MPH WINDS AND SMALL
HAIL WILL ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST STORMS.

STORMS OVER WESTERN KANSAS THIS EVENING WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
ROUGHLY WEST OF A LINE FROM SALINA TO WICHITA TO WELLINGTON LATE TONIGHT.
WHILE WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED...THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY WILL BE CAPABLE OF 50 TO 60 MPH WINDS AND DIME TO QUARTER
SIZE HAIL. HIGH RAINFALL RATES MAY CONTRIBUTE TO LOCALIZED
FLOODING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SEVERAL ROUNDS OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM FRIDAY THROUGH
MONDAY. THE BIGGEST THREAT DURING THIS PERIOD WILL BE HIGH
RAINFALL RATES AND THE RESULTANT FLOODING. THE EXACT TIMING AND
LOCATION OF THE HEAVY RAIN IS UNCERTAIN...BUT CURRENT TRENDS
SUGGEST THE MORE LIKELY AREA IS ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.

IN ADDITION TO THE FLOODING THREAT...50 MPH WINDS AND SMALL HAIL
WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE. THOSE WITH OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES PLANNED FOR
OVER THE LONG FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE FORECAST AND OUTLOOKS FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

WARMER TEMPERATURES WILL PUSH HEAT INDICES NEAR 100 OVER PARTS OF
THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND ALL OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

HOWERTON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
315 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

KSZ069-093-302115-
BUTLER KS-COWLEY KS-
315 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  NORTHEASTERN COWLEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 415 PM CDT

* AT 313 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF ATLANTA...OR 9
  MILES EAST OF DOUGLASS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  DOUGLASS...ATLANTA...LATHAM...ROCK AND WINFIELD CITY LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BECOME SEVERE.

&&

LAT...LON 3758 9712 3764 9653 3745 9652 3736 9653
      3734 9695
TIME...MOT...LOC 2013Z 330DEG 14KT 3752 9684

KETCHAM

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
415 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

KSZ092-302200-
SUMNER KS-
415 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SUMNER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT

* AT 415 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL 6 MILES SOUTHWEST
  OF WELLINGTON...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 5 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  WELLINGTON...CALDWELL...OXFORD...ARGONIA...SOUTH HAVEN...
  GEUDA SPRINGS...MAYFIELD...MILAN...HUNNEWELL...
  PERTH AND WELLINGTON AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK FOR
MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

&&

LAT...LON 3700 9780 3734 9780 3735 9715 3700 9715
TIME...MOT...LOC 2115Z 300DEG 4KT 3719 9746

METZGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
422 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0419 PM     TSTM WND DMG     WELLINGTON              37.27N 97.40W
06/30/2016                   SUMNER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            ESTIMATED 50-60 MPH WINDS, WITH 4 INCH DIAMETER TREE
            LIMBS DOWN NEAR THE COURTHOUSE.

&&

BDK

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
435 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0432 PM     HAIL             WELLINGTON              37.27N 97.40W
06/30/2016  E1.00 INCH       SUMNER             KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            PUBLIC REPORT ON TWITTER OF QUARTER HAIL IN TOWN. VIA
            KAKE TV.

&&

BDK

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
437 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

KSZ069-093-094-098-099-302230-
CHAUTAUQUA KS-ELK KS-BUTLER KS-COWLEY KS-MONTGOMERY KS-
437 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  ELK COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  NORTHEASTERN COWLEY COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...
  WESTERN MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...

* UNTIL 530 PM CDT

* AT 437 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL NEAR ATLANTA...OR
  12 MILES SOUTHEAST OF DOUGLASS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  CANEY...SEDAN...HOWARD...CEDAR VALE...BURDEN...MOLINE...LONGTON...
  ELK CITY...DEXTER...TYRO...GRENOLA...ATLANTA...PERU...ELK FALLS...
  HAVANA...ROCK...NIOTAZE...CAMBRIDGE...WINFIELD CITY LAKE AND HALE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK FOR
MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

&&

LAT...LON 3711 9682 3748 9715 3754 9651 3743 9596
      3739 9596 3739 9584 3701 9579
TIME...MOT...LOC 2137Z 331DEG 10KT 3741 9683

METZGER

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