Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
216 PM CDT SUN JUN 26 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Main issue will be precipitation chances through the forecast.

A nearly stationary/diffuse boundary will stretch ENE across the
southern half of the forecast area this evening. With ample
afternoon heating, the boundary, and plenty of potential energy,
storms into the evening south of highway 50 could be severe. Those
storms that develop or move north of the boundary should remain
below severe limits but will produce heavy rainsfor those
locations that experience storms.

A chance for lingering showers and weak thunderstorms will continue
into Monday morning in the vicinity of the boundary before dying off
by the afternoon hours. With an upper ridge in place over the
desert southwest, northwest flow will occur across the western two
thirds of the forecast area. Both the NAM and GFS develop MCS's in
Nebraska and slide them SSE across our forecast area. This is
where is gets tricky. The NAM is faster and further west, while
the GFS is slower and further east. For now, I will hedge for a
compromise between the two. What this means will be decent chances
for storms and heavy rains overnight Monday and Tuesday. The
storms and precipitation are more likely Tuesday night into
Wednesday. Isolated rain amounts over 1.5 inches will be possible,
mainly west of the Flint Hills. Severe potential beyond this
evening will be limited to lower end criteria. Only exception
might be overnight Tuesday in the form of winds.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 212 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

Precipitation remains the main issue for this portion of the
forecast as well. The nearly stationary/diffuse boundary that will
plague the area for the early portions of the forecast period will
meander just south of KS. The upper NW flow will also continue
with weaker impulses ejecting across the forecast area each night.
These two culprits will produce just enough lift to warrant
thunder chances in virtually every period of the forecast. With
decent precipitable water values in the southern half, very heavy
rains will be likely.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1207 PM CDT Sun Jun 26 2016

A weakening surface cold front was situated from northeast Kansas
into south central Kansas. Convection should continue to develop
and gradually increase in coverage this afternoon with the
front and/or mesoscale boundary pushing the effective front south
toward or into far northern Oklahoma this evening. While mainly
VFR conditions are expected throughout the forecast valid period,
periods of MVFR or even brief IFR can be expected in convection
this afternoon though early tonight. However will relegate TEMPO
groups to areas where near term confidence is highest. Some patchy
MVFR fog and or stratus CIGS are possible early Monday morning,
though confidence is not high enough yet to insert in the
terminals.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    71  91  70  89 /  40  30  30  10
Hutchinson      68  91  68  88 /  40  30  30  10
Newton          69  90  68  88 /  40  40  30  10
ElDorado        69  90  69  88 /  40  30  30  10
Winfield-KWLD   71  91  70  89 /  50  30  30  10
Russell         67  91  66  88 /  20  30  40  10
Great Bend      67  91  66  89 /  30  30  40  10
Salina          68  92  68  89 /  30  30  30  10
McPherson       68  91  68  88 /  30  30  30  10
Coffeyville     71  91  68  89 /  50  40  20  10
Chanute         70  91  67  88 /  50  30  20  10
Iola            70  91  67  87 /  50  30  20  10
Parsons-KPPF    70  91  68  88 /  50  40  20  10

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...CWH
LONG TERM...CWH
AVIATION...KED

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