Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
629 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Thunderstorms have developed along the dry line this afternoon
across south central and central Kansas as upper-level energy
continues to lift out across the central Plains. With an unstable
atmosphere in place and decent shear, ongoing thunderstorm
activity has become strong to severe.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

The main forecast concerns are severe thunderstorms this evening,
additional chances for thunderstorm activity through the
beginning of the work week, a few storms could be strong to
severe, and the potential to see additional rainfall over already
saturated grounds. The flash flood watch will remain in effect
through Saturday morning given the potential for additional
flooding and/or worsening of ongoing flooding.

As upper-level energy continues to eject out across the central
Plains, expect thunderstorm activity to increase in coverage this
evening. With good instability and decent shear in place, severe
thunderstorms will be capable of producing large hail and
damaging winds; however, a few tornadoes cannot be ruled out.
Tonight as surface low pressure slowly moves eastward across
central Kansas, expect thunderstorms activity to slowly move
eastward as well. Into the late evening/overnight hours, with
lingering instability up to 1000-1500 J/kg and 30-40 kt of bulk
shear, severe storms will still be possible. After midnight into
early Saturday morning, thunderstorm activity will begin to
diminish from west to east across the area as large scale lift and
moisture transport will lift into Missouri. With surface low
pressure lifting northeast of the region, the dry line boundary
will become more diffuse and stall out across far southeast Kansas
on Saturday. With ample low-level moisture still in place ahead of
the surface boundary, expect at least moderate instability to
develop across southeast Kansas. Convergence is not outstanding
along this boundary during the late afternoon/early evening;
however, with moisture streaming back northward have included at
least slight chance mentions for thunderstorms across far
southeast Kansas Saturday night. With shear being on the weak end
of the spectrum across southeast Kansas, chances for severe
weather look more favorable south of the border in northern
Oklahoma.

Sunday and Monday chances for thunderstorms will return to much of
the area as multiple rounds of moisture return northward. Although
the shear does not look too impressive, albeit better on Monday
than Sunday, given the unstable, buoyant air mass that will be
overhead at least a few strong storms may be possible during the
end of the weekend/early work week.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 248 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

With increasing cloud cover over the region, temperatures look to
remain below normal through the work week. Chance for thunderstorms
will linger across much of the area as well. Models are fairly
consistent with cold front dropping south across the region during
the middle of the work week. Right now, there is some uncertainty
in regards to the actual timing of this frontal passage, with the
ECMWF being a bit more progressive than the GFS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 00Z TAFS through 00Z Saturday evening)
Issued at 622 PM CDT Fri May 27 2016

Main Aviation Hazards: Thunderstorm and stratus potential tonight.

Quasi-linear north-south oriented thunderstorm complex over
south-central Kansas early this evening, is expected to shift
slowly eastward across the Flint Hills and Southeastern Kansas
this evening, in response to best moisture transport/upper
divergence signal shifting east. Other widely scattered
thunderstorms over west-central through north central Kansas will
persist into mid-late evening, underneath mid-level thermal trough
axis. Best chance for widespread storms will be at the CNU
terminal late this evening, with more isolated to widely separated
storms possible affecting the remaining TAF sites through at least
05Z tonight.

Portions of central/eastern Kansas could see stratus develop
overnight into early Saturday morning with light, very moist
boundary layer flow. IFR would be most likely category where
stratus develops.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    58  82  61  84 /  50  10  10  40
Hutchinson      57  81  59  84 /  50  10  10  40
Newton          57  80  60  83 /  60  20  10  40
ElDorado        59  81  61  84 /  70  20  10  40
Winfield-KWLD   60  83  63  85 /  60  10  10  40
Russell         56  79  57  82 /  50  20  10  40
Great Bend      55  80  58  82 /  40  10  10  40
Salina          57  80  59  84 /  60  20  10  40
McPherson       56  80  59  84 /  50  20  10  40
Coffeyville     64  83  63  85 /  60  20  20  40
Chanute         63  82  62  84 /  60  30  20  40
Iola            63  82  62  84 /  60  30  20  30
Parsons-KPPF    63  82  62  85 /  60  30  20  40

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Flash Flood Watch through Saturday morning for KSZ032-033-
047>053-067>070-082-083-091>093.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JMR
SHORT TERM...JMR
LONG TERM...JMR
AVIATION...JMC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
325 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-282030-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
325 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS,
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF GOLF
BALLS...WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES AND FLOODING ALSO
POSSIBLE. A FEW TORNADOES CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF THE AREA
THROUGH TONIGHT. SEE LATEST FLOOD WATCHES AND WARNINGS FOR
ADDITIONAL DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THERE REMAINS A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...PRIMARILY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KANSAS EARLY ON SATURDAY AND AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT. THE
STRONGEST STORMS MAY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS.
THE POTENTIAL FOR MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
ARRIVE ON SUNDAY WITH CHANCES CONTINUING THROUGH THE WORK WEEK.
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED FOR REPORTS OF SEVERE
WEATHER AND FLOODING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF I-135.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
720 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0719 PM     HAIL             9 E WINFIELD            37.27N 96.80W
05/27/2016  M0.25 INCH       COWLEY             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            RELAYED VIA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT

&&

JMR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
741 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

KSZ094-098-280130-
CHAUTAUQUA KS-ELK KS-
741 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  CENTRAL ELK COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 739 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL 7 MILES NORTHEAST
  OF DEXTER...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST OF CEDAR VALE...MOVING NORTHEAST
  AT 25 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  SEDAN...HOWARD...CEDAR VALE...MOLINE...GRENOLA...CHAUTAUQUA AND ELK
  FALLS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK FOR
MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

&&

LAT...LON 3701 9651 3754 9651 3755 9612 3701 9610
TIME...MOT...LOC 0039Z 232DEG 22KT 3723 9659

METZGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
753 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0745 PM     HAIL             7 SSE GORHAM            38.79N 98.97W
05/27/2016  M1.25 INCH       RUSSELL            KS   BROADCAST MEDIA

            REPORT FROM PUBLIC RELAYED VIA KWCH ON TWITTER.

&&

JMR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
807 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

KSZ047-280145-
BARTON KS-
807 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHWESTERN BARTON COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 845 PM CDT

* AT 806 PM CDT...SATELLITE IMAGERY AND NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
  DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED THAT THUNDERSTORMS WERE RAPIDLY DEVELOPING
  7 MILES SOUTH OF GREAT BEND...MOVING NORTH AT 30 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  GREAT BEND AND GREAT BEND AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3826 9867 3827 9898 3848 9897 3844 9861
TIME...MOT...LOC 0106Z 190DEG 28KT 3826 9884

METZGER

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
821 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0820 PM     HAIL             5 SW RUSSELL            38.84N 98.92W
05/27/2016  M0.75 INCH       RUSSELL            KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JMR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
821 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

KSZ071-095-280200-
WOODSON KS-WILSON KS-
821 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WOODSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  NORTHWESTERN WILSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...

* UNTIL 900 PM CDT

* AT 820 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL OVER TORONTO...OR
  11 MILES SOUTHWEST OF YATES CENTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  YATES CENTER...TORONTO...BUFFALO...NEOSHO FALLS...COYVILLE...CROSS
  TIMBERS STATE PARK...BATESVILLE...TORONTO LAKE AND ROSE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK FOR
MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

&&

LAT...LON 3771 9565 3763 9596 3804 9596 3804 9553
TIME...MOT...LOC 0120Z 226DEG 32KT 3778 9592

METZGER