Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1137 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

SEVERE WEATHER MODE/MAGNITUDE THE MAIN CONCERN THIS EVENING FOR
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. THE EARLY DAY ELEVATED
CONVECTION DEVELOPED A BIT FURTHER WEST THAN EXPECTED WITH MORE
PERSISTENCE WEST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. HOWEVER...AREAS FURTHER
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST CLOSER TO THE DRY-LINE ARE DESTABILIZING
WITH THE HEATING SUN FROM SOUTH OF KDDC TO SOUTH OF KGAG.
DESPITE BEING A BIT FURTHER WEST AS WELL...THE GENERAL SHORT
TERM/MESO GUIDANCE DEVELOPS ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SURFACE
BASED CONVECTION JUST EAST OF THE DRY-LINE IN THE 22-00Z TIME
FRAME WITH AND EAST-NORTHEAST MOVEMENT INTO WESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE WICHITA FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. THIS WOULD REMAIN THE MOST
LIKELY AREA FOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS. MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG
AND DEEP LAYER NEARLY ORTHOGONAL SHEAR VALUES OVER 50 KTS WILL
EASILY SUPPORT VERY LARGE HAIL WITH MORE DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH
A CONDITIONAL RISK OF A COUPLE TORNADOES AS WELL. FURTHER
EAST...SOME UPSCALE DEVELOPMENT ON THE BACK EDGE OF THE ONGOING
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED...WITH NEW STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING MORE
SURFACE BASED TOWARD 00Z AS WELL. THESE STORMS WILL MOST LIKELY
SHOW MIXED MODE TYPE WITH A LARGE HAIL RISK. SCATTERED SEVERE
STORMS CAN BE EXPECTED TO EVOLVE EAST-NORTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS DURING THE EVENING...THOUGH LIKELY WANING BY
MIDNIGHT.

THE MAIN UPPER TROF IS EXPECTED TO EJECT WITH A SLIGHT NEGATIVE
TILT DURING MONDAY...WITH THE SURFACE DRY-LINE FRONT SETTING UP
NEAR THE I-135 CORRIDOR BY MIDDAY. WHILE INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE
A BIT STRONGER THE DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL BECOME MORE MODERATE
THOUGH STILL SUPPORTIVE OF ROTATING UPDRAFTS FOR LARGE HAIL
ALONG AND EAST OF THE KANSAS TURNPIKE. WHILE NON-ZERO...THE
TORNADO RISK MAY BE MORE LIMITED AND MAINLY ACROSS FAR EASTERN
KANSAS. DRY AND WARMER WEATHER STILL LOOKS FINE FOR MOST OF
TUESDAY THOUGH CHANCES WILL COME BACK QUICKLY TUESDAY EVENING
AND NIGHT AS ANOTHER UPPER TROF ROTATES EAST FROM THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS WILL SEND A FAIRLY STRONG
COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS KANSAS...WITH SOME LINGERING CHANCES INTO
PART OF WEDNESDAY AND MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR CENTRAL KANSAS.

DARMOFAL

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 228 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

PERIODIC CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WILL BE RETAINED THE OUTER
FORECAST PERIODS...AND ONLY SLIGHT TWEAKS TO THE GOING FORECAST.

KED

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1133 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

CLUSTERS OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT MAINLY
NEAR AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70...AFFECTING MAINLY RSL AND
POSSIBLY SLN...GBD TERMINALS THROUGH ABOUT 07-08Z. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. A MOIST SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTERLY BOUNDARY LAYER WIND OVERNIGHT...WILL LEAD TO AREAS
OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WHICH WILL PERSIST INTO MONDAY MORNING.
SHORT RANGE MODELS INDICATE THE DRYLINE MOVING TO NEAR OR JUST
EAST OF I-135 CORRIDOR BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. WITH A DEEP UPPER
TROUGH STILL HANGING OVER THE REGION...WILL INSERT VCTS AT THE
TERMINALS ALONG/EAST OF I-135 FOR THE LATE PM/EVE HOURS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    63  81  56  85 /  30  30  20  10
HUTCHINSON      60  81  55  84 /  50  20  20  10
NEWTON          62  79  56  84 /  40  40  30  10
ELDORADO        63  78  57  84 /  40  40  30  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   64  80  56  86 /  30  40  30  10
RUSSELL         54  79  54  82 /  80  20  20  20
GREAT BEND      54  80  54  83 /  60  20  20  20
SALINA          60  80  56  83 /  60  30  20  10
MCPHERSON       60  80  55  83 /  50  30  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     64  77  63  84 /  50  60  50  10
CHANUTE         64  76  61  83 /  50  60  50  10
IOLA            64  76  61  82 /  50  60  50  10
PARSONS-KPPF    64  77  62  83 /  50  60  50  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...KED
LONG TERM...KED
AVIATION...JMC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1131 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-100445-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
1131 PM CDT SUN MAY 8 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS,
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS, SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT NORTH
CENTRAL KANSAS THROUGH ABOUT 2 AM...GENERALLY NEAR AND NORTH OF
INTERSTATE 70. THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL UP TO GOLFBALL
SIZE...DAMAGING WINDS...POSSIBLY A BRIEF TORNADO.

FURTHER SOUTH ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...AN
ISOLATED STRONG STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT. THE MAIN THREAT FROM
ANY STORMS WILL BE HAIL TO NICKEL SIZE.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED WITH ANY STORMS
TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE
MONDAY NIGHT. SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE MAINLY EAST OF A LINE
FROM SALINA TO WICHITA TO WELLINGTON LINE. THE PRIMARY THREATS
WILL BE GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL AND WINDS TO 65 MPH. THE GREATEST
RISK APPEARS TO BE ACROSS THE FLINT HILLS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS
AREA DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THERE ARE PERIODIC CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS FROM TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY. THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN
THE DETAILS...BUT SOME STRONG STORMS ARE PROBABLE. AT THIS
TIME...THE THREAT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. THIS MAY
CHANGE...SO CHECK LATER OUTLOOKS FOR UPDATED INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

A FEW STORM SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH 2 AM...MAINLY NEAR
AND NORTH OF INTERSTATE 70.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

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