Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
713 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS THE NEXT 7-10 DAYS FOCUS AROUND WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...WITH A WARMING
TREND STARTING FRIDAY...AND INCREASING CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS
SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK.

SHORTWAVE ENERGY CURRENTLY ROTATING THROUGH THE BASE OF A PARENT
UPPER LOW CENTERED OVER NORTHEAST COLORADO WILL APPROACH THE
REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST THE NEXT 12 HOURS...RESULTING IN A BAND
OF WIDESPREAD/NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SPREADING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA FROM EARLY THIS EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THE NEGATIVE TILT OF THE EJECTING SHORTWAVE WILL
SUPPORT IMPRESSIVE QG FORCING AND FRONTOGENESIS...ALONG WITH
MODEST 850-600MB MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND WARM ADVECTION. ALL THESE
FACTORS...ALONG WITH THE SUPPORT OF VARIOUS SHORT AND MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE...SHOULD RESULT IN WIDESPREAD ONE-HALF INCH RAIN
AMOUNTS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS LIKELY. THE LACK OF
APPRECIABLE INSTABILITY ALONG WITH THE PROGRESSIVE NATURE OF THE
SYSTEM SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD FLOODING RAINS AT BAY...ALTHOUGH
MODEST RISES ON AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE LIKELY GIVEN RECENT
RAINS...ALONG WITH LOCALIZED MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING.
FURTHERMORE...SEVERE WEATHER CHANCES ARE LOW...ALTHOUGH CANNOT
RULE OUT SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WITH THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL KS WHERE SUN
HAS BEEN A BIT MORE PREVALENT TODAY.

AS THE PARENT UPPER LOW FINALLY MOVES EAST OVER MID
AMERICA...CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW ISOLATED HIT-OR-MISS
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AREAWIDE...SHIFTING INTO
SOUTHEAST KS FOR THURSDAY. FIVE-STAR WEATHER DAY EXPECTED
FRIDAY...WITH SUNNY SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND FORECAST HIGHS IN THE
MID 70S...DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE SURFACE AND UPPER RIDGES.
ADDITIONALLY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES AMIDST MOIST
SOILS...COULD BE LOOKING AT AREAS OF FOG THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY...BUT FOR NOW WILL KEEP OUT OF THE FORECAST.

ADK

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

WHILE EXACT DETAILS REMAIN FAR FROM CERTAIN...MEDIUM RANGE
CONSENSUS SUPPORTS AN OVERALL PATTERN CHANGE THIS WEEKEND INTO
NEXT WEEK...WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A MEAN WESTERN CONUS LONGWAVE
TROUGH. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE
70S AND 80S ALONG WITH STOUT/GUSTY SOUTH WINDS. FURTHERMORE...THE
PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT INCREASING GULF MOISTURE
AND ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS LOW SURROUNDING
THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF VARIOUS EJECTING SHORTWAVES ACROSS
MID-AMERICA...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS SOMETIME SUNDAY EVENING
INTO NEXT WEEK. STAY TUNED.

ADK

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 630 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA THIS EVENING RESULTING IN WIDESPREAD MVFR CIGS/VISIBILITIES
IN LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN. AS THE RAIN SHIFTS EAST/NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...CIGS MAY COME LOWER TO IFR AT TIMES BEFORE
MIXING OUT IN THE 13-15Z TIMEFRAME ON WED. NORTHWEST WINDS WILL
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK COLD FRONT ALTHOUGH SPEEDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN AROUND 10 KNOTS OR LESS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 319 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

RECENT WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINS IN CONCERT WITH TONIGHT'S EXPECTED
RAINFALL ALONG WITH WIDESPREAD GREEN UP CURRENTLY TAKING
PLACE...THINKING FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL BE MINIMAL THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.

ADK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    49  71  49  73 /  90  10  20  10
HUTCHINSON      49  70  46  72 /  90  20  20  10
NEWTON          48  70  47  71 /  90  20  20  10
ELDORADO        52  70  49  72 /  90  20  20  10
WINFIELD-KWLD   51  72  50  73 /  90  10  20  20
RUSSELL         45  67  44  72 /  90  20  20  10
GREAT BEND      44  68  44  71 /  90  20  20  10
SALINA          49  68  47  73 /  90  30  20  10
MCPHERSON       48  69  46  72 /  90  20  20  10
COFFEYVILLE     55  72  51  73 /  90  20  20  20
CHANUTE         55  71  49  72 /  90  30  20  20
IOLA            55  71  49  72 /  90  30  20  20
PARSONS-KPPF    55  72  50  73 /  90  20  20  20

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...ADK
LONG TERM...ADK
AVIATION...MWM
FIRE WEATHER...ADK

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
435 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-202145-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
435 PM CDT TUE APR 19 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

AREAS OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA EARLY THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND GUSTY WINDS COULD ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST
ACTIVITY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A FEW ISOLATED HIT-OR-MISS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. STRONG OR SEVERE
STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE FROM SUNDAY EVENING
INTO NEXT WEEK. WHILE THE OVERALL PATTERN WILL SUPPORT THE
POTENTIAL FOR A HANDFUL OF STRONG TO AT LEAST MARGINALLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...DETAILS ON TIMING AND AREAL EXTENT REMAIN UNCLEAR
AT THIS TIME. PLEASE STAY TUNED.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

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