Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
631 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL OVER SOUTH
CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST KS AND TIMING THE ENDING OF THE CONVECTION.

CLUSTERS OF PRIMARILY ELEVATED STRONG TO PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE
STORMS WILL CONTINUE TO SPREAD NORTHEAST INTO SOUTHEAST KS THROUGH
AT LEAST MID AFTERNOON WITH HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. CLEARING/HEATING
WILL CONTINUE TO OCCUR JUST WEST OF THIS CONVECTION (PER SATELLITE
IMAGERY)...NEAR THE DRYLINE OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL KANSAS/FLINT HILLS
THIS AFTERNOON...ALLOWING MLCAPES TO INCREASE TO ~1500-2000 J/KG
IN THE 19Z-00Z TIME-FRAME...BEFORE DIMINISHING SOME TOWARD MID
EVE. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING TO 45-60 KNOTS OVER EASTERN KS AS THE STRONG
MID-UPPER JET STREAK ADVANCES OVER THE REGION FROM THE WEST.
FORCING FROM THE MID-UPPER JET STREAK AND SOME DRYLINE CONVERGENCE
WILL PROVIDE ASCENT. THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW FOR A FEW SUPERCELL-
TYPE STORMS TO DEVELOP NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE DRYLINE MID-LATE
AFTERNOON...ACROSS PART OF SOUTH CENTRAL KS INTO THE FLINT
HILLS/SOUTHEAST KS...WITH THE WESTERN EXTENT OF SEVERE WEATHER
POSSIBLY ALONG A LINE FROM HILLSBORO...TO WICHITA...TO WELLINGTON.
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY IS ALREADY SHOWING CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS
TRYING TO DEVELOP OVER SOUTH CENTRAL KS/FLINT HILLS. LARGE HAIL
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER AND DAMAGING WINDS ARE LIKELY WITH
ANY OF THESE SURFACE-BASED STORMS. IN ADDITION...LOW-LEVEL
HODOGRAPH CURVATURE INCREASES TOWARD 00Z-03Z OVER THE FLINT
HILLS/SOUTHEAST KS SUGGESTING A SMALL TORNADO THREAT MAY ALSO
BE POSSIBLE. HOWEVER...SLIGHTLY BACKED MID-LEVEL WIND FIELDS MAY
PRECLUDE MORE THAN A LOW PROBABILITY OCCURRENCE. STORM MOTIONS
(RIGHT-MOVERS) ARE PROJECTED TO BE FAIRLY RAPID TO THE EAST-
NORTHEAST AT 40-45 MPH.

STORMS SHOULD LINGER THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS OVER SOUTHEAST KS
BEFORE SHIFTING EAST OUT OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE THREAT
SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH TOWARD MID-LATE EVENING AS DIURNALLY
MODULATED INSTABILITY DROPS.

COOLER/DRIER AIR/MORE SEASONAL AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT OVERNIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL
DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS TO THE MISSOURI VALLEY
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT. THIS FEATURE SHOULD BRING SOME MID-
LEVEL CLOUDINESS TO THE AREA...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF SPRINKLE OR TWO
IN CENTRAL KS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

THE LONGWAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA THIS WEEKEND...WITH
THE FLOW ALOFT BACKING TO MORE NORTHWEST-WESTERLY. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY CLIMB BACK ABOVE NORMAL BY
SUNDAY/MONDAY. ALTHOUGH A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE
REGION MONDAY...LITTLE COOLING IS EXPECTED BEHIND IT AND
PRECIPITATION CHANCES LOOK LESS THAN 15% WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE SO
WILL MAINTAIN DRY FORECAST. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ARE SLATED FRIDAY
THROUGH MONDAY.

THE MEDIUM RANGE MODELS SHOW HIGH UNCERTAINTY WITH THE HANDLING OF
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST BEGINNING EARLY NEXT
WEEK...AND HOW IT TRANSLATES EASTWARD THROUGH MID-WEEK. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A COLD FRONT PASSAGE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WITH
PERHAPS SMALL CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS. AGAIN...UNCERTAINTY IN
PRECIPITATION CHANCES IS HIGH...GIVEN DISPARITIES AMONG THE MEDIUM
RANGE GFS...ECMWF...AND SPREAD AMONGST THE GFS ENSEMBLE MEMBERS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 631 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

STRONG TO SEVERE CONVECTION WILL REMAIN SCATTERED AHEAD OF A
DRY-LINE AND COLD FRONT TONIGHT...MAINLY AFFECTING FAR EASTERN
KANSAS. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
AND CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY. WHILE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...SOME
TRANSIENT MVFR/IFR IN CONVECTION AT KCNU CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
A BRIEF PERIOD OF MVFR STRATOCU BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TONIGHT
ACROSS CENTRAL KANSAS.

KED

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 137 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER LEVELS WILL PERSIST OVER CENTRAL AND
SOUTH CENTRAL KS INTO EARLY THIS EVENING BEFORE SUBSIDING DUE TO
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY WINDS.

BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL ALLOW THE GRASSLAND
FIRE DANGER INDEX TO REMAIN IN THE VERY HIGH CATEGORY DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF THE FLINT HILLS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    45  63  37  58 /  10  10  10   0
HUTCHINSON      44  62  33  57 /  10  10  10   0
NEWTON          43  62  36  57 /  10  10  10   0
ELDORADO        44  64  38  57 /  30  10  10   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   43  66  37  59 /  30  10  10   0
RUSSELL         40  60  31  55 /  20  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      39  60  32  56 /  10  10  10   0
SALINA          45  61  34  57 /  20  10  10   0
MCPHERSON       43  61  33  57 /  10  10  10   0
COFFEYVILLE     47  65  39  59 /  60  10  10   0
CHANUTE         47  64  38  58 /  60  10  10  10
IOLA            46  63  37  57 /  60  10  10  10
PARSONS-KPPF    47  65  39  59 /  60  10  10  10

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...KED
FIRE WEATHER...JMC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
656 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-010000-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
656 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MID-EVENING
ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE GREATEST
RISK WILL OCCUR ALONG AND SOUTH OF A YATES CENTER TO ARKANSAS
CITY LINE. THE MAIN RISKS WILL BE GOLF BALL SIZED HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS...THOUGH A BRIEF TORNADO IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY
FOR THE OKLAHOMA BORDER COUNTIES.

VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER LEVELS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH
OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS UNTIL DARK.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL RETURN ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY RESULTING
IN A VERY HIGH FIRE DANGER ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL KANSAS DURING
THE AFTERNOON HOURS. GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER LEVELS MAY BECOME VERY
HIGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE NEEDED UNTIL 9 PM...MAINLY SOUTHEAST OF A
YATES CENTER TO ARKANSAS CITY LINE.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
708 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0700 PM     HAIL             CANEY                   37.01N 95.93W
03/30/2016  M1.75 INCH       MONTGOMERY         KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            LARGE HAIL REPORTED WAS GOLF BALL SIZE.

&&

JMR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
709 PM CDT WED MAR 30 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0709 PM     HAIL             COFFEYVILLE             37.04N 95.63W
03/30/2016  M1.00 INCH       MONTGOMERY         KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JMR

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