Special Weather Statement, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
617 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

...UPDATED FOR 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER-DECK CYCLONE WAS SITUATED OVER SOUTHERN CA/
NORTHERN BAJA WHILE A DOWNSTREAM MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE WAS DRIFTING E
OVER EASTERN CO. DOWNSTAIRS A DRY LINE CURVED FROM AROUND KHLC THRU
ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN KPTT & KDDC TO JUST W OF KGAG. ACROSS THE KICT
NEIGHBORHOOD...SLY 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS CONTINUED TO TRANSPORT MID &
UPPER 50S DEWPOINTS ACROSS CENTRAL & EASTERN KS.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS:
1) EXTREME FIRE DANGER POTENTIAL ALONG & W OF K-14 UNTIL 7 PM CST.
2) SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL ALONG & JUST E OF DRY LINE THIS
EVENING.

TONIGHT:
THE FIRST 2 ISSUES ARE THE RED FLAG WARNING & WIND ADVISORY THAT
ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR ALL OF CENTRAL KS & MOST OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS ALONG & W OF THE TURNPIKE. ALTHOUGH WE ARE STRUGGLING
TO MEET RED FLAG CRITERIA IN MOST OF THE WARNED AREAS WILL KEEP
THE RED FLAGS HOISTED AS SOUTH WINDS TO REMAIN STIFF THIS EVENING.
THE ATTENTION THEN SHIFTS TOWARD SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
ALONG THE SW FLANK OF OUR CWA. THE HRRR HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH
DEPICTING SUPERCELLULAR DEVELOPMENT OVER COMANCHE...BARBER & PRATT
COUNTIES ~6 PM. FOR NOW THE CAP LOCATED IN THE 850-800MB LAYER IS
TIGHT OVER OUR SWRN-MOST COUNTIES...HOWEVER A WELL-DEFINED AXIS OF
INSTABILITY RESIDES ALONG THE WESTERN CORRIDOR. A FAIRLY LARGE
AREA OF SHOWERS & A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD NE FROM
EASTERN OK TO MUCH OF SOUTHEAST KS LATE THIS EVENING. AS THE MID-
LEVEL SHORTWAVE LIFTS NE TOWARD THE NEBRASKA/SD BORDER A "PACIFIC"
COLD FRONT WILL PUSH E TOWARD CENTRAL KS. THIS WOULD SLOWLY SHIFT
THE GREATEST SHOWER & THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FURTHER INTO SOUTHEAST
KS.

TUE-WED NIGHT:
AS THE FAR SWRN MID-UPPER CYCLONE CONTINUES ITS TREK E TOWARD THE
WESTERN RIO GRANDE SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE IN W TX/TX
PANHANDLE REGION. THE FRONT WOULD STALL THEN UNDERGO WARM FRONTO-
GENESIS ON TUE. WITH THE FRONT LIFTING N THEN NW ACROSS EASTERN KS
NUMEROUS SHOWERS & EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD CONTINUE ACROSS
SOUTHEAST KS WITH COVERAGE SLOWLY DECREASING FURTHER INTO SOUTH-
CENTRAL KS. AS THE SFC CYCLONE PUSHES E ACROSS E TX...WIDESPREAD
RAINS WOULD WRAP AROUND THE CYCLONE WITH SOUTHEAST KS ONCE AGAIN
THE BENEFICIARY OF PROLONGED RAINFALL.

THU & THU NIGHT:
THE BEHAVIOR OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS CYCLONE WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED
CLOSELY. THE GFS & ECMWF DISAGREE ON IT'S TRACK WITH GFS FURTHER N
OVER E TX THU NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF HAS IT POSITIONED OVER THE RIO
GRANDE. THIS WOULD OF COURSE HAVE RAMIFICATIONS ON THE TRACK OF THE
SFC LOW. CONSIDERING THAT AN OMEGA BLOCK WILL BE SITUATED FROM THE
GULF TO ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST THE SLOWER ECMWF IS PREFERRED. AS
SUCH WRAP-AROUND RAINS WOULD SPREAD FURTHER W ACROSS MOST OF THE
CWA THU NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

WITH SOMEWHAT OF ATMOSPHERIC "TRAFFIC JAM" SETTING UP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN PLAINS RAIN & A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WOULD LIKELY
CONTINUE ACROSS PRIMARILY THE EASTERN HALF OF KS THRU EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THE BEST CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS WOULD OCCUR OVER SOUTHEAST
KS WHERE GREATER UPPER DIFFLUENCE SHOULD RESIDE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 616 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

VERY INTERESTING AVIATION FORECAST AS MVFR CIGS WERE LOCATED MAINLY
ALONG AND EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE...WITH EVEN SOME VCTS OVER SE KS.
TO THE WEST OF THE LOWER CIGS (WEST OF THE KS TURNPIKE) IS A DRYLINE
BOUNDARY CURRENTLY LOCATED FROM KRSL TO KP23. EXPECT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE TO CONTINUE STREAMING TO THE NORTH THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT...LEADING TO A GRADUAL BUILD DOWN OF THE STRATUS FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS.  THIS BUILD DOWN WILL LEAD TO IFR CIGS DEVELOPING
FOR KICT/KHUT AND PROBABLY KCNU AFTER 06Z AND ESPECIALLY FOR THE 09-
15Z/TUE TIME FRAME.  WILL ALSO SEE A GENERAL INCREASE IN THE
SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY FOR AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE KS TURNPIKE AS
WELL OVERNIGHT...SO WILL GO WITH A VCTS FOR BOTH THE KICT/KCNU TAFS
OVERNIGHT.

COULD SEE AN ISOLATED SHOWER/TSRA DEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE TO THE
WEST OF BOTH THE KICT AND KHUT TAF LOCATION....OR POSSIBLY SW IN OK.
CONFIDENCE IN ANY TSRA ACTIVITY REACHING KICT OR KHUT IS LOW...SO
WILL NOT MENTION THIS CHANCE.

EXPECT A WIND SHIFT TO MOVE INTO CENTRAL KS LATE TONIGHT OR EARLY
TUE MORNING.  THIS WILL SHIFT THE WINDS AROUND TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHEAST.

KETCHAM

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 355 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

THE CONTINUED LOWER-DECK MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL KEEP THE FIRE
DANGER INDICES IN CHECK FOR MOST OF THE WORK-WEEK. WILL HOWEVER
KEEP THE RED FLAGS HOISTED FOR AREAS PRIMARILY ALONG & W OF I-135
UNTIL 7 PM.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    56  66  49  62 /  30  50  50  40
HUTCHINSON      54  66  45  62 /  20  30  30  20
NEWTON          55  65  47  61 /  20  50  50  40
ELDORADO        57  66  49  62 /  30  70  60  50
WINFIELD-KWLD   58  66  51  63 /  40  70  60  50
RUSSELL         45  65  41  62 /  10  10  10   0
GREAT BEND      46  64  42  62 /  10  10  20   0
SALINA          54  67  45  62 /  20  20  30  10
MCPHERSON       54  65  45  61 /  20  30  30  20
COFFEYVILLE     60  68  54  63 /  70  90  80  80
CHANUTE         59  68  53  63 /  60  90  80  80
IOLA            58  66  52  62 /  60  90  80  80
PARSONS-KPPF    59  68  53  63 /  60  90  80  80

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-
047>052-067-068-082-083-091-092.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR KSZ032-033-047>052-
067>069-082-083-091-092.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
445 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-082245-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
445 PM CST MON MAR 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL...SOUTH
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SOUTHERLY 25 TO 30 MPH WINDS...WITH GUSTS AROUND 40 MPH...WILL
CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY THIS EVENING. THIS WILL RESULT IN A VERY HIGH
GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND EXTREME FIRE DANGER
IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. PLEASE REFER TO THE RED FLAG
WARNING AND WIND ADVISORY WHICH ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM FOR MORE
DETAILS.

AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAY DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING JUST
EAST OF A DRYLINE IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. THE MORE
FAVORABLE SCENARIO IS FOR STORM CLUSTERS TO MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF
OKLAHOMA OVERNIGHT...INTO SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. THE
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE NICKEL-SIZED HAIL AND 40 TO 50
MPH WINDS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE ON TUESDAY WITH THE GREATEST
POTENTIAL OCCURRING ALONG...AND SOUTHEAST...OF THE TURNPIKE.
THUNDERSTORMS WOULD THEN BE POSSIBLE FOR ALL AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT
WITH THE GREATEST POTENTIAL REMAINING OVER SOUTHEAST KANSAS WHERE A
FEW MAY PRODUCE SOME NICKEL-SIZED HAIL AND 40 TO 50 MPH WINDS. A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTINUE OVER PRIMARILY SOUTHEAST KANSAS ON
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE FOR MANY AREAS FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY BUT SHOULD BE NEITHER STRONG NOR SEVERE.

A VERY HIGH GRASSLAND FIRE DANGER IS POSSIBLE FOR ALL AREAS WEST
OF THE FLINT HILLS THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

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