Severe Thunderstorm Warning 163, NWS Wichita, KS

753 
WWUS53 KICT 292012
SVSICT

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
312 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

KSC115-292022-
/O.CAN.KICT.SV.W.0163.000000T0000Z-160529T2030Z/
MARION KS-
312 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

...THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR NORTHEASTERN MARION COUNTY IS
CANCELLED...
        
THE STORM WHICH PROMPTED THE WARNING HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA.
THEREFORE THE WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

LAT...LON 3852 9693 3852 9682 3837 9682 3846 9712
      3861 9730 3861 9693
TIME...MOT...LOC 2009Z 242DEG 16KT 3862 9689 

$$

HOWERTON

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
232 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Wednesday night)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Ongoing convection over the forecast area early this afternoon has
developed along a boundary associated with a cold pool from the
earlier convection across northern Oklahoma.  Shear from LAPS over
the past several hours ending at 18z shows values around 20 knots at
best, suggesting minimal chances for organized convection right now.
The RAP does not indicate this will change that much this evening.

Strong CAPE ahead of that boundary suggests the main threat is hail,
with some downburst winds also. The only hope for organized storms
is strong low level CAPE, which does exist along that outflow.

Either way, severe storms possible initially with hail and wind
threats (in that order). The weak upper level flow pattern will
eventually head the event toward a flooding event over time.

As the diurnal convection comes to an end this evening, weak
moisture transport is forecast to develop over the High Plains.
Current NWP shows this mainly being relegated to the High Plains,
though predictability has been moderate at best.  Would not be
surprised if scattered storms continue across the remainder of the
forecast area.

Southwesterly 500 mb flow pattern suggests high confidence in an
active pattern through the middle of the week with several rounds of
showers and thunderstorms. High confidence that these will occur
primarily in the afternoon and evening.  Exactly where is very
difficult to pin down any one location.  Suffice it to say, a good
shot that by Wednesday night, nearly everyone will have received
rain again.  This will only agitate flood concerns.

During the early part of the week, the upper level trough will
gradually move east. On Wednesday, it is expected to move through
the region.  This will probably be the day with the most severe
weather given the upper level support/higher deep layer shear.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Sunday)
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

The upper level trough is expected to remain quasi-stationary
southeast of the region through the weekend as ridge building occurs
over inter-mountain west. This will enhance the northerly flow
aloft and keep drier air in place across the region. The main
point here is, it should be dry after Wednesday through the
weekend.

NOTE: Should the forecast upper level low that is expected to close
off over the southern U.S. be further north, our chances for drying
out into the weekend decrease significantly.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Monday afternoon)
Issued at 1250 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

VFR expected to be the prevailing flight category at all sites
throughout the period. Scattered thunderstorms appear to be
developing in the vicinity of leading edge of deeper return
moisture. These are most likely to affect KRSL/KSLN and KCNU
during the afternoon. Chances at KICT/KHUT are too low to mention
at this time. Anticipate them to be mainly diurnally driven, so
will nix chances at sunset. May see low clouds develop late
tonight, mainly in the west. Some chance for elevated storms at
KCNU in the predawn to mid morning hours. -howerton

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 228 PM CDT Sun May 29 2016

Most of the storms that will affect the region this week will be
heavy rain producers. A survey of the area suggests there is still
a great deal of high water in areas that previously received rain. Given
the already saturated soils, any heavy rainfall would result in
significant flooding issues for areas with already high water.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    64  82  63  80 /  30  30  30  60
Hutchinson      61  81  62  79 /  30  30  30  60
Newton          62  81  62  79 /  30  30  30  60
ElDorado        63  81  63  79 /  30  30  30  60
Winfield-KWLD   63  81  64  81 /  30  30  30  50
Russell         59  81  60  77 /  50  30  50  50
Great Bend      60  81  61  78 /  40  30  40  60
Salina          62  83  62  79 /  40  30  40  60
McPherson       61  81  62  79 /  30  30  40  60
Coffeyville     62  82  64  81 /  30  30  30  50
Chanute         63  82  63  81 /  30  30  30  60
Iola            63  82  63  80 /  30  30  30  60
Parsons-KPPF    62  82  63  80 /  30  30  30  50

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...KRC
LONG TERM...KRC
AVIATION...PJH
HYDROLOGY...KRC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
446 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-301000-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
446 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS,
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS RIVERS...STREAMS AND FLOOD PRONE AREAS REMAIN IN FLOOD
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS. SEE THE LATEST FLOOD
WARNINGS FOR DETAILS.

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. A STRONG STORM OR TWO
WITH SMALL HAIL AND BRIEF HEAVY RAIN WILL BE POSSIBLE BUT
ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SOME RIVER FLOODING WILL LINGER INTO THE WORK WEEK...CONTINUE TO
CHECK THE LATEST FLOOD WARNINGS FOR DETAILS. THUNDERSTORMS WILL
REMAIN IN THE FORECAST THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. A FEW STRONG OR
SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
228 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0223 PM     HAIL             TOWANDA                 37.80N 97.00W
05/29/2016  M0.25 INCH       BUTLER             KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

0224 PM     HAIL             MCPHERSON               38.37N 97.66W
05/29/2016  M0.25 INCH       MCPHERSON          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

&&

JMR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
233 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0130 PM     HAIL             4 NE MOUNDRIDGE         38.24N 97.46W
05/29/2016  M1.00 INCH       MCPHERSON          KS   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            DELAYED REPORT

&&

JMR

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
233 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

KSZ069-292000-
BUTLER KS-
233 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL BUTLER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 230 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER EL DORADO...MOVING EAST AT 20
  MPH. THIS STORM WILL IMPACT EL DORADO LAKE.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  EL DORADO...EL DORADO LAKE AND EL DORADO AIRPORT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3773 9694 3791 9700 3797 9671 3771 9682
TIME...MOT...LOC 1930Z 255DEG 17KT 3784 9688

LAWSON

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
236 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

KSZ052-292000-
MARION KS-
236 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  NORTHEASTERN MARION COUNTY IN CENTRAL KANSAS...

* UNTIL 300 PM CDT

* AT 235 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR TAMPA...OR 11 MILES NORTH OF
  MARION...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LINCOLNVILLE...RAMONA...DURHAM...TAMPA...LOST SPRINGS...PILSEN AND
  MARION LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3852 9694 3852 9682 3836 9686 3841 9723
      3861 9725 3861 9693
TIME...MOT...LOC 1935Z 234DEG 13KT 3851 9708

LAWSON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
242 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0241 PM     HAIL             1 W LATHAM              37.54N 96.66W
05/29/2016  M0.25 INCH       BUTLER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

JMR

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
244 PM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0243 PM     HAIL             1 W LATHAM              37.54N 96.66W
05/29/2016  M1.75 INCH       BUTLER             KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

            TRAINED SPOTTER REPORTS GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL AT BUTLER
            STATE LAKE. RELAYED VIA EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT.

&&

JMR