Heat Advisory 14, NWS Wichita, KS

Allen County, KS, Butler County, KS, Chase County, KS, Chautauqua County, KS, Cowley County, KS, Elk County, KS, Greenwood County, KS, Harper County, KS, Harvey County, KS, Kingman County, KS, Labette County, KS, Marion County, KS, McPherson County, KS, Montgomery County, KS, Neosho County, KS, Reno County, KS, Rice County, KS, Saline County, KS, Sedgwick County, KS, Sumner County, KS, Wilson County, KS, Woodson County, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
241 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(This evening through Friday night)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2016

Upper circulation that was over the TX Panhandle yesterday has
weakened and is now making its way across central KS. Iso-Sct
storms developed this afternoon just head of this feature in an
airmass with around 3,000J/kg of CAPE and PW's greater than 2".
Wet microburst winds and high rainfall rates/flooding will be the
main threats. Some of this activity should continue into at least
the early evening hours east of I-135.

Did go ahead and run with another heat advisory for Thu and
pulled it back west another row of counties. Confidence is high
that maxes Thu will be the hottest of this forecast package as
850mb temps spike just ahead of the cold front passage.

Another weak upper impulse is expected to lift out of se NM and
across central KS on Thu afternoon/evening. In addition, the cold
front will start its southward push across the central/southern
Plains Thu evening through Fri. By 12z Fri the front should be
along the KS Turnpike and south of the forecast area by 00z Sat.
Should see showers and storms first develop late Thu afternoon
along/north of I-70 with storms pushing south and east Thu night
into Fri. Areal coverage should be aided by central/eastern KS
remaining in the right entrance region of an upper jet. Cant' rule
out some low end severe Thu night through Fri as shear increases,
but with PW's still hovering around or just over 2", high rainfall
rates an flooding may end up being the main threat. With the front
moving south at a pretty good clip, short duration flooding looks
more likely than a 2-3 day event.

By Fri night, the main storm/flooding threat will shift into far
southeast KS/eastern Ok/southern MO which is where the front will
be situated. Although, still can't rule out sct convection
further north with right entrance region hovering over the area.

.LONG TERM...(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 241 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2016

ECMWF is a bit more agressive in pushing the front south compared
to the GFS. If the GFS is correct, SE KS will continue to see
precip Sat with the ECMWF keeping area dry. Will hold onto some
pops over SE KS Sat and Sat night to account for the model
differences. However, higher confidence for heavy rain stays south
into OK and AR. Still running with below normal temps through the
weekend into the start of the work week with most sites topping
out in the mid to upper 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Thursday afternoon)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Wed Aug 10 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SLIGHT CHANCE
FOR VCTS IS POSSIBLE AT KCNU...BUT NOT ENOUGH OF A CHANCE TO
WARRANT MENTION IN THE FORECAST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    75  97  74  89 /  10  10  40  40
Hutchinson      75  97  73  87 /  10  10  50  40
Newton          75  96  73  87 /  10  10  50  40
ElDorado        75  96  74  88 /  20  10  40  40
Winfield-KWLD   75  97  75  90 /  20  10  30  40
Russell         75  97  71  84 /  10  30  50  20
Great Bend      75  98  71  85 /  10  20  50  30
Salina          77  98  73  88 /  10  20  50  30
McPherson       75  97  73  87 /  10  20  50  30
Coffeyville     76  97  76  93 /  20  10  20  50
Chanute         76  96  75  90 /  20  10  20  50
Iola            76  95  75  89 /  20  10  30  50
Parsons-KPPF    75  96  76  91 /  20  10  20  50

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
Heat Advisory from 1 PM to 8 PM CDT Thursday for KSZ053-069>072-
093>096-098>100.

Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for KSZ070>072-094>096-
098>100.

&&

SHORT TERM...RBL
LONG TERM...RBL
AVIATION...CWH

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
218 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

KSZ096-099-100-102015-
NEOSHO KS-LABETTE KS-MONTGOMERY KS-
218 PM CDT WED AUG 10 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN NEOSHO COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  NORTHERN LABETTE COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...

* UNTIL 315 PM CDT

* AT 216 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING
  STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG A LINE
  EXTENDING FROM NEAR PARSONS TO NEAR HAVANA...AND MOVING EAST AT 5
  MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  PARSONS...INDEPENDENCE...CHERRYVALE...CANEY...ERIE...ALTAMONT...
  ST. PAUL...DEARING...MOUND VALLEY...TYRO...GALESBURG...LIBERTY...
  HAVANA...BOLTON...SYCAMORE...LABETTE...PARSONS TRI CITY AIRPORT...
  COFFEYVILLE AIRPORT...INDEPENDENCE AIRPORT AND ELK CITY LAKE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS. LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS OR POSSIBLE FLOOD WARNINGS...SHOULD THE RISK FOR
MINOR LOW-LAND FLOODING BECOME MORE IMMINENT.

&&

LAT...LON 3722 9596 3739 9564 3738 9553 3745 9553
      3768 9509 3722 9508 3700 9593 3700 9596
TIME...MOT...LOC 1917Z 255DEG 4KT 3739 9525 3714 9593

HAYES