Areal Flood Warning 7, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
702 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

A CLUSTER OF SVR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED QUICKLY ON SCHEDULE ALONG
A DRY LINE THAT EXTENDED FROM JUST S OF KGBD...THRU BETWEEN K8K2 &
KP28...THEN SW ACROSS FAR WRN OK TO W TX. A 2ND AREAS OF SVR
THUNDERSTORMS WAS IN PROGRESS FROM JUST S OF KMHK...THRU KEMP...TO
BURLINGTON. LARGE HAIL HAD BEEN THE PRIMARY SVR MODE...BUT SINCE
ABOUT 315 PM A COUPLE OF TORNADOES WERE POSSIBLE OVER SW SUMNER CO.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

TONIGHT:
NO DOUBT SVR THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF ALL 3 SVR MODES CONTINUE TO
DRAW GREATEST ATTENTION. AS AN UPPER-DECK LOW...THAT WAS SITUATED
OVER SE WY & NE CO THIS AFTERNOON...REMAINS PARKED OVER THESE AREAS
A 2ND UPPER LOW WILL DEVELOP OVER SRN KS. THIS SHOULD PUSH THE DRY
LINE PERHAPS AS FAR E AS I-35/I-135 EARLY THIS EVENING. GREATEST
SFC-BASED CAPES (4,000-4,500 J/KG) EXTEND IN A WELL-DEFINED S-N
ORIENTED AXIS FROM THE NORTH-CENTRAL OK/SOUTH-CENTRAL KS BORDER TO
AROUND KSLN. AS SUCH THE GREATEST SVR POTENTIAL WOULD SPREAD N/NE
ACROSS THESE AREAS THRU MID-LATE EVENING. WITH THE LOWER-DECK FLOW
SLOWLY BACKING...THE 3KM VORTICITY WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT CONTINUES TO INCREASE. AS SUCH THE TORNADIC
POTENTIAL WOULD LIKEWISE INCREASE WHERE TOR WATCH #108 IS IN EFFECT
TILL 10 PM CDT. AS THE INTENSE SFC LOW...CENTERED BETWEEN KSLN &
KCNK...LIFTS NNE THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING E FROM THE LOW WOULD LIFT
ALMOST DUE N...REACHING I-70 LATE THIS EVE BY WHICH TIME A PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WOULD PUSH ESE...APPROACHING THE I-135 CORRIDOR TOWARD
DAYBREAK WED. AS SUCH THUNDERSTORMS WOULD SHIFT E & NE OVERNIGHT &
BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS SOUTHEAST KS LATE TONIGHT & VERY EARLY WED
MORNING. AS SUCH THE PRIMARY SVR MODE WOULD SHIFT TOWARD A
DAMAGING WINDS.

WED:
WITH THE SFC LOW CONTINUING TO LIFT SLOWLY NNE TO ALONG THE IA/
NEBRASKA BORDER THUNDERSTORMS OCCURRING ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL &
SOUTHEAST KS WOULD END IN A SW-NE MANNER IN THE MORNING WHILE
AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WOULD SPREAD SE AROUND THED DEPARTING
SFC LOW INTO CENTRAL KS.

WED NIGHT-THU:
THERE'LL BE A BRIEF INTERMISSION AS WESTERLY FLOW CONTINUES TO OVER
SPREAD THE KS REGION...BUT EARLY THU MORNING...A BROAD SFC HIGH
WILL SPREAD E ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS THAT...CONBINED WITH WEAK SFC
LOW DEVELOPING OVER THE NM/TX PANHANDLE...WILL INDUCE EASTERLY FLOW
ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS EARLY THU MORNING.

THU NIGHT-FRI NIGHT:
RAIN & EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS QUICKLY RETURN TO THE KS REGION THU
NIGHT FOR AS THE SFC LOW LIFTS SLOWLY NE ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
FRI & FRI NIGHT...RAIN WOULD SPREAD NE ACROSS THE CWA. WITH A
NEGATIVELY-TILTED UPPER SHORTWAVE PUSHING ENE ACROSS THE TX/OK
PANHANDLES EMBEDDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY TO SPREAD ACROSS THE
CWA FRI & FRI NIGHT. SUFFICIENT LIFT WOULD BE INDUCED TO PRODUCE
A FEW SVR THUNDERSTORMS.

.LONG TERM...(SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE VIGOROUS MID
TO UPPER TROUGH MOVES OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND INTO THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHERN PLAINS. MAINTAINED MID-HIGH POPS THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS
A SERIES OF SMALLER SCALE IMPULSES MOVE THROUGH THE MEAN MID/UPPER
TROUGH PROGGED TO REMAIN CAMPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS AREA.
THIS WILL ALSO BRING BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO THE AREA OVER
THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 702 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

A LINE OF (+)TSRA...A FEW SVR W/ GR ARND 2.00 INCHES IN DIAMETER...
CONT TO MOVE NE AROUND 25KTS. AT ISSUANCE THE LINE XTND'D FROM WRN
OK...THRU SC KS TO NE KS...W/ A TSRA CLUSTER OVER XTRM NC KS & SC
NEBRASKA. THE (+)TSRA AXIS WL S-L-O-W-L-Y SHIFT E OVERNGT AS A SFC
LOW...CENTERED OVER NE KS AT 23Z...LIFTS DUE N ACRS THE NE KS/SE
NEBRASKA BORDER. AS THE LOW LIFTS N WRAP-ARND CIGS ~1,500FT WL
SPREAD SE ACRS KRSL & KGBD 05Z-07Z W/ CIGS QUICKLY LWR'G INTO IFR
COUNTRY. WINDS SUSTAINED ~30KTS W/ GUSTS ~40KTS...ARE LKLY IN &
CLOSE TO TSRA. WINDS ACRS CNTRL KS WL QUICKLY SHIFT TO NW-N ~13KTS
SUSTAINED LATE TNGT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ISSUED AT 400 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE WIDESPREAD RAINS & THUNDERSTORMS WILL KEEP THE GRASSLAND FIRE
DANGER IN CHECK THE REST OF THE WEEK.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
WICHITA-KICT    58  74  48  71 /  80  20   0   0
HUTCHINSON      54  69  44  69 /  80  30   0   0
NEWTON          57  73  46  69 /  90  30   0   0
ELDORADO        59  76  48  71 /  90  20   0   0
WINFIELD-KWLD   58  76  48  73 /  80  20   0   0
RUSSELL         50  66  41  66 /  60  40   0   0
GREAT BEND      50  67  41  67 /  60  40   0   0
SALINA          55  69  45  67 /  90  40  10   0
MCPHERSON       55  69  44  69 /  80  30   0   0
COFFEYVILLE     63  78  52  76 /  90  20   0   0
CHANUTE         62  76  50  73 /  90  20   0   0
IOLA            62  76  50  73 / 100  20   0   0
PARSONS-KPPF    63  77  51  73 /  90  20   0   0

&&

.ICT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

SYNOPSIS...EPS
SHORT TERM...EPS
LONG TERM...EPS
AVIATION...EPS
FIRE WEATHER...EPS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
858 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-280200-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
858 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS...
EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE NIGHT...ROUGHLY
EAST OF I-35. THE PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...UP TO
GOLFBALL SIZED HAIL AND 70 MPH WINDS. THE SEVERE THREAT IS
EXPECTED TO WANE AROUND MIDNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...IS POSSIBLE LATE IN THE WEEK. PLEASE
CHECK LATER FORECASTS AND OUTLOOKS AS DETAILS BECOME AVAILABLE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE THROUGH MIDNIGHT EAST OF I-35.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION...SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

HOWERTON

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
950 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0947 PM     FLASH FLOOD      5 NW CLEARWATER         37.56N 97.55W
04/26/2016                   SEDGWICK           KS   EMERGENCY MNGR

            WATER ACROSS THE ROAD AT 183RD W AND 71ST S.

&&

METZGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1017 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

KSZ072-270345-
ALLEN KS-
1017 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  CENTRAL ALLEN COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1045 PM CDT

* AT 1015 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR LA HARPE...MOVING NORTH AT 40
  MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  IOLA...LA HARPE...GAS...MORAN...ELSMORE...MILDRED...BASSETT AND IOLA
  AIRPORT.

LAT...LON 3782 9509 3778 9509 3784 9545 3804 9541
      3804 9508 3782 9508
TIME...MOT...LOC 0315Z 185DEG 34KT 3795 9526

JAKUB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1025 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

KSZ071-270415-
WOODSON KS-
1025 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  WOODSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1115 PM CDT

* AT 1024 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR YATES CENTER...MOVING NORTH AT
  40 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  YATES CENTER...TORONTO...NEOSHO FALLS...PIQUA...CROSS TIMBERS STATE
  PARK...BATESVILLE...TORONTO LAKE AND ROSE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3775 9554 3775 9596 3804 9594 3804 9552
TIME...MOT...LOC 0324Z 185DEG 34KT 3791 9573

JAKUB

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1026 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1015 PM     HAIL             SEDAN                   37.13N 96.18W
04/26/2016  M0.88 INCH       CHAUTAUQUA         KS   TRAINED SPOTTER

&&

METZGER

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1028 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

KSZ070-071-094-095-270415-
WOODSON KS-ELK KS-WILSON KS-GREENWOOD KS-
1028 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHERN WOODSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  NORTHERN ELK COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  WILSON COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  SOUTHEASTERN GREENWOOD COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1115 PM CDT

* AT 1027 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR
  GRENOLA TO NEAR ELK CITY...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 55 MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  NEODESHA...FREDONIA...HOWARD...ALTOONA...SEVERY...BUFFALO...FALL RIVER...
  PIEDMONT...BENEDICT...CLIMAX...NEW ALBANY...COYVILLE...FALL RIVER LAKE...
  BUXTON...FALL RIVER STATE PARK...TORONTO LAKE AND CROSS TIMBERS STATE
  PARK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE PREPARED TO TAKE SHELTER IN THE EVENT THE STORMS INTENSIFY AND
BECOME SEVERE...OR A WARNING IS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

&&

LAT...LON 3739 9555 3745 9653 3746 9652 3776 9631
      3774 9553 3754 9552
TIME...MOT...LOC 0327Z 216DEG 50KT 3740 9647 3728 9585

JAKUB

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1035 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

KSZ098-099-270415-
CHAUTAUQUA KS-MONTGOMERY KS-
1035 PM CDT TUE APR 26 2016

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA HAS ISSUED A

* SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR...
  SOUTHEASTERN CHAUTAUQUA COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...
  MONTGOMERY COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN KANSAS...

* UNTIL 1115 PM CDT

* AT 1033 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS WERE
  TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CANEY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35
  MPH.

HAIL UP TO THE SIZE OF DIMES...AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  COFFEYVILLE...INDEPENDENCE...CHERRYVALE...CANEY...DEARING...ELK CITY...
  TYRO...PERU...LIBERTY...HAVANA...BOLTON...SYCAMORE...NIOTAZE...
  INDEPENDENCE AIRPORT...ELK CITY STATE PARK...ELK CITY LAKE...
  COFFEYVILLE AIRPORT AND HALE.

LAT...LON 3700 9618 3729 9598 3730 9595 3734 9595
      3738 9593 3738 9552 3700 9552
TIME...MOT...LOC 0333Z 213DEG 31KT 3705 9599

JAKUB