Areal Flood Warning 151, NWS Wichita, KS

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Wichita KS
555 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today through Monday night)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2016

The well-advertised cold front has pushed through the remainder of
southeastern Kansas early this morning, and post-frontal stratiform
rainfall should clear the far southeastern Kansas counties by 10
or 11 UTC. The parent upper trough over the Upper Midwest will
translate eastward to the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley by this evening,
with high pressure building into Kansas with cooler and drier air
for today. Lee troughing and southerly return flow will develop
Sunday into Monday, ahead of mid-upper level height falls occuring
over the western states and south-central Canada. This will allow
temperatures to modify to slightly warmer than average by Monday.

The next cold front is progged to drop southward into Kansas Monday
into Monday night, with dewpoints recovering to well up into the 60s
ahead of the front. This front will signal the next chance of
thunderstorms from late Monday into Monday night, with highest
probabilities across central into northeast Kansas at this juncture.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday through Friday)
Issued at 308 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2016

An upper trough will continue to press eastward across the Great
Lakes and Northeast Tuesday into Wednesday, while an upper trough
remains cutoff over the Great Basin. This will allow the cold front
to settle south of Kansas. Storm chances Wednesday should be mainly
south and west of the forecast area. The upper trough over the Great
Basin is progged to approach the Plains late in the week.
Moist/unstable air should return northward ahead of this trough,
bringing increased chances of showers/thunderstorms to the forecast
area for Thursday/Friday per the GEFS, GFS, and ECWMF. Mostly cloudy
skies and periodic storm chances during this extended forecast
period should keep temperatures near to slightly below seasonal
normals.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Sunday morning)
Issued at 551 AM CDT Sat Sep 10 2016

VFR conditions are slated for today into tonight, as surface high
pressure builds into the Kansas region behind a cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Wichita-KICT    76  54  80  65 /   0   0   0   0
Hutchinson      76  54  81  65 /   0   0   0   0
Newton          75  53  79  64 /   0   0   0   0
ElDorado        75  53  79  64 /   0   0   0   0
Winfield-KWLD   75  54  80  65 /   0   0   0   0
Russell         76  54  82  65 /   0   0   0   0
Great Bend      77  54  82  65 /   0   0   0   0
Salina          77  53  81  65 /   0   0   0   0
McPherson       76  53  80  64 /   0   0   0   0
Coffeyville     77  52  80  61 /  10   0   0   0
Chanute         75  51  79  61 /   0   0   0   0
Iola            74  52  78  61 /   0   0   0   0
Parsons-KPPF    76  51  80  61 /  10   0   0   0

&&

.ICT Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
None.
&&

SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JMC

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
402 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2016

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-110915-
RUSSELL-LINCOLN-BARTON-ELLSWORTH-SALINE-RICE-MCPHERSON-MARION-CHASE-
RENO-HARVEY-BUTLER-GREENWOOD-WOODSON-ALLEN-KINGMAN-SEDGWICK-HARPER-
SUMNER-COWLEY-ELK-WILSON-NEOSHO-CHAUTAUQUA-MONTGOMERY-LABETTE-
402 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL KANSAS,
SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

NUMEROUS ONGOING RIVER AND COUNTY FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. PLEASE REFER TO THE
FLOOD WARNING STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

SEVERAL MAINSTEM RIVERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN FLOOD SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST KANSAS. PLEASE
REFER TO THE FLOOD WARNING STATEMENTS FOR DETAILS.

THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN TO THE FORECAST FOR LATE MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...THEN AGAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A FEW OF THE
STORMS COULD BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED TODAY OR TONIGHT.

&&

FOR A GRAPHICAL VERSION OF THIS INFORMATION, SEE OUR WEBPAGE AT:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/WICHITA/HWO/

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
616 AM CDT SAT SEP 10 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0616 AM     FLASH FLOOD      CLEARWATER              37.51N 97.50W
09/10/2016                   SEDGWICK           KS   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            THREE WATER RESCUES WERE UNDER WAY NEAR CLEARWATER DUE TO
            RISING WATER FROM NINNESCAH RIVER GETTING CLOSE TO
            PEOPLES HOMES.

&&

CDJ