Special Weather Statement, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
252 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

.DISCUSSION...
The 19z mesoscale analysis indicated that northwest Alabama would
continue to be the favorable area for continued scattered shra/tsra
development through late afternoon. Expect that the scattered to
widely scattered shra/tsra should weaken and dissipate by around 02z
tonight and have reflected this thinking in tonight's forecast. Temps
look generally good and have not made much in the way of changes to
the forecast for tonight, other than adding in some patchy fog across
the area by between 09z-10z, continuing until around 14z Thursday.

By Thursday morning, the short term models such as the RAP/HRRR and
the Hi-Res are all indicating that a weak short wave should be
rotating east-southeast through middle Tennessee. This disturbance
should bring enough support to go along with higher PWAT and CAPE
values present to provide for a continued slight chance/chance pop on
Thursday for the forecast area. The same timing should be generally
accepted involving ending the scattered shra/tsra on Thursday
evening. By Friday, weak ridging will build more northeast toward the
forecast area, so will continue with low chance mainly
afternoon/early evening pops for the forecast area.

By early Saturday, the GFS/ECMWF models are in fair agreement
involving shifting a weak cold front southeast through the lower Ohio
valley into middle Tennessee by Saturday afternoon. As scattered
shra/tsra develop and move southeast into the forecast area by
Saturday afternoon, have upped pops slightly into the higher end of
the chance category. The GFS/ECMWF models settle the weakening cold
front through southern middle Tennessee by Sunday, and will continue
with widely scattered shra/tsra as the models hint that the mid-upper
support and southward push of the boundary will be halted near the
forecast area.

By Monday and through the rest of the extended forecast period, the
models differ somewhat related to the southward movement of drier air
through the forecast area. Will continue with mainly afternoon/early
evening low chance pops through the end of the extended forecast
period. Have decided to go with a compromise between the higher temps
associated with the ECMWF model guidance and cooler GFS temps for
next week.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
(Issued 1226 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016)
For 18Z TAFs:

MVFR sky conditions are still present at some locations (KDCU) and
could see that occur at KHSV over next 4 hours. As a result, have
left a tempo group in the forecast. The primary threat will actually
be -TSRA at KMSL over the next 4 hours as a weak outflow boundary
moves across NW AL. There could still be isolated -TSRA at KHSV btwn
03/18Z-3/22Z, but have only included VCTS at this time. Fog formation
is also possible again tonight and have included a prevailing MVFR
VIS at both TAF sites to account for this possibility btwn
04/09Z-04/12Z.

SL.77

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Huntsville    73  94  73  95 /  30  30  20  30
Shoals        72  93  71  95 /  30  30  20  30
Vinemont      71  92  71  93 /  20  40  20  30
Fayetteville  71  91  70  92 /  30  40  20  30
Albertville   71  92  71  92 /  20  30  20  30
Fort Payne    71  91  71  90 /  20  40  20  40

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
135 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-041000-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
135 PM CDT WED AUG 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE
EVENING HOURS, WITH THE COVERAGE OF STORMS EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY
GREATER ACROSS NORTHWEST ALABAMA THIS AFTERNOON. BRIEF WIND GUSTS OF
40 TO 50 MPH, LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE THE MAIN
THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S THIS AFTERNOON,
WITH HEAT INDEX READINGS IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE ALONG AND
WEST OF INTERSTATE 65.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK, WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF STORMS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIODS.

AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL RISE INTO THE LOWER TO MID 90S, WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 100 TO 105 DEGREE RANGE FOR NORTHWEST AND
MOST OF NORTH CENTRAL ALABAMA.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

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