Special Weather Statement, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
1237 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

.UPDATE...
For 18Z TAFs.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
 (Issued 1046 AM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016)
The Tennessee Valley remains under control of upper level ridging and
a surface high centered over southern Alabama. Again daytime heating
and weak pre-frontal troughs/boundaries will have the biggest impact
on sensible weather today.

The main jetstream and cooler air continues to extend from central
Illinois eastward into southern Ohio this morning. This front is
finally making some inroads south towards the Tennessee Valley.
However, it will likely fall apart as it moves south into the
Tennessee Valley tonight. Before then, models depict a weak
shortwave currently over western Tennessee moving east-northeast
around the surface high into central Tennessee. Expect isolated to
scattered convection to fire this afternoon as this occurs, mainly
near and west of I-65. An isolated shower/storm cannot be ruled out
though in northeastern Alabama. Stronger storms could produce heavy
downpours, frequent lightning, and gusty winds. Maybe even small hail
given CAPE progs over 3000 J/kg. Will need to monitor development
later this afternoon to see if higher pops are needed.

Temperatures are already in the lower to mid 80s. Although, a fairly
expansive cumulus (primarily mostly cloudy) field is expected to
develop around noon or 1 pm across much of northern Alabama,
insolation will be strong between now and then. In addition, this
cloud cover should decrease in eastern counties late this afternoon.
Therefore, highs in the lower 90s look reasonable in most locations
despite expected cloud cover development. In addition, some locations
such as Huntsville, Scottsboro, and Winchester (TN) could still reach
94 to 96 degrees. Low level moisture is pooling in earnest ahead of
this shortwave feature, where dewpoints are between 75 and 80
degrees. This will advect mid 70 degree dewpoints into the area this
afternoon. Combined with temperatures in the lower to mid 90s, heat
index values will climb to between 100 and 105 degrees in spots. So,
remain hydrated if working outside today and take plenty of breaks.

KTW

&&

.AVIATION...
For 18Z TAFs:
Isolated to scattered -TSRA are expected this afternoon at both TAF
sites, primarily between 18Z and 23Z. Expect activity to decrease in
coverage quickly after 00Z. CIGS around 5000 feet are likely during
that period. Could see some brief MVFR/IFR CIGS or VSBYS if this
activity directly impacts either terminal. Otherwise, winds will
become light tonight, before becoming northwest on Monday. Could be
some patchy fog at the terminal, most likely if either site receives
a heavier shower this afternoon/evening. However, left out for now.

KTW

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
203 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-131130-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
203 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL BE AROUND 100 DEGREES...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS
WEST OF INTERSTATE 65 FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.

ALSO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING BEFORE TAPERING OFF. THE THREAT OF SEVERE
WEATHER IS LOW BUT A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF
HEAVY RAIN.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...

THE HOT CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY WITH HEAT INDEX
VALUES AROUND 100 DEGREES. COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED BY NEXT WEEKEND.

THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WORK WEEK WITH THE BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. MAIN IMPACTS WITH
ANY STORMS WILL BE BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL...GUSTY WINDS AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL IS
NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

SS/KTW

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
221 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

ALZ005-007-121945-
MORGAN AL-LIMESTONE AL-
221 PM CDT SUN JUN 12 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MORGAN AND EASTERN
LIMESTONE COUNTIES UNTIL 245 PM CDT...

AT 221 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
ATHENS...MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DECATUR...MADISON...ATHENS...PRICEVILLE...TANNER...HUNTSVILLE
INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT...MOORESVILLE...FRENCH MILL...BELLE MINA AND
RIPLEY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING ON ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE
YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE SEVERAL MILES AWAY FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM.
SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3474 8678 3460 8679 3450 8696 3479 8714
      3490 8695
TIME...MOT...LOC 1921Z 326DEG 19KT 3479 8700

STUMPF