Severe Thunderstorm Warning 31, NWS Huntsville, AL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Huntsville AL
639 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

.UPDATE...
For 00Z TAFs.

&&

.SHORT TERM (This afternoon through Friday)...
 (Issued 306 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016)
Visible satellite this afternoon shows the pesky low clouds this
morning have cleared out leaving a scattered deck of cu. Temps warmed
quickly once the clouds cleared with values topping out in the lower
90s and with dewpoints remaining in the 70s, heat index values will
approach the 100 degree mark in the next few hours.

To our northwest a shortwave moving through eastern Missouri has
sparked a line of strong to severe thunderstorms that are now
entering northwestern Tennessee. Higher theta-e values have pooled to
the south/southeast of the convective line and with winds through the
850mb-500mb layer shifting to the NW, this line is expected to drop
E/SE towards the Tennessee Valley later this afternoon. SPC has
issued a severe thunderstorms watch that is in effect until 9pm for
counties immediately to our north with the primary concern being
damaging winds. A very similar environment is established over our
region with CAPE values topping out between 3000-4000 J/kg in NW
Alabama and DCAPE near 1500 J/kg. While shear is somewhat lacking
with values below 15kts, latest guidance does bring a nose of
25-30kts of shear into NW Alabama later this evening. This coupled
with the values mentioned above should be enough for the line of
thunderstorms to continue to maintain their strength as they drop
S/SE into our region.

HiRes guidance has been fairly consistent in bringing the line
into the TN Valley around 4 to 5pm and moving it quickly through from
north to south. The primary concerns with these storms will be
damaging winds upwards of 60mph, very heavy rainfall, small hail, and
frequent lightning. We'll keep a close eye on storm reports with the
line as an indication of what to expect when the line moves through.

By 10pm to midnight tonight the line should be well south of the area
leaving mainly just some high level cirrus. With the addition of
the rainfall from the storms and dewpoints remaining in the 70s, fog
formation is possible tonight. Latest SREF guidance indicates areas
mainly along and east of I-65 could see fog/low clouds develop late
tonight early Thursday morning.

A hot and humid day is expected for Thursday with highs reaching into
the lower 90s east and mid 90s west. Dewpoints are expected to be in
the low to mid 70s in the morning but with the advection of some of
the drier air in the mid levels, good heating in the afternoon on
Thursday may lead to some drier air mixing down to the surface. This
should keep heat index values just below advisory criteria across the
west. Due to the slightly drier air and general lack of forcing
during the afternoon have kept PoPs on the low end for Thursday
afternoon with isolated thunderstorms possible.

The low pressure system moving through the Great Lakes today will
send a weak cold front into the area on Friday. Models have continued
to show development of showers and thunderstorms developing with the
front. Have made adjustments to the PoPs but kept PoPs on the lower
side due to some drier air advecting in which may limit the overall
coverage of storms.

Stumpf

.LONG TERM (Friday night through Wednesday)...
After the weak frontal passage on Friday, sfc high pressure in the
Great Lakes will begin to build into the TN Valley. This will be the
dominating weather pattern as we head into our next work week.
Unfortunately, that means no rain in the forecast for this drought
stricken area until this dome of high pressure moves out of the
region.

Will see a break in the heat index values Saturday to Monday due to
drier air and seasonable temps in place. Highs will be in the upper
80s to lower 90s however heat index values will not be much higher.

JMS

&&

.AVIATION...
For 00Z TAFs: A line of strong to severe storms is currently moving
across the taf sites. Storms should be south of the taf sites by
02z. HRRR/NAM both shows that the convection that is currently over
nern AR should not make it to the TN Valley overnight. Thinking that
all pcpn should be tapering off arnd 04z. With the rain this evening
will keep fog in the taf sites between 10z and 14z. Otherwise except
for mvfr conditions in tsra and patchy fog, vfr conditions are
expected for the remainder of the fcst.

007

&&

.HUN Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

For more information please visit our website
at weather.gov/huntsville.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
156 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-161000-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
156 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAY BEGIN TO AFFECT NORTHWEST ALABAMA
BETWEEN 5 AND 6 PM AND THEN MOVE ACROSS THE REST OF THE TENNESSEE
VALLEY THIS EVENING. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO TAPER OFF BETWEEN
9 PM AND 10 PM OVER NORTHEAST ALABAMA. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT. LOCALIZED HEAVY DOWNPOURS
AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY...

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION. BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
GUSTY WINDS REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS.

HOT AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL ALSO CONTINUE ON THURSDAY...WITH HEAT
INDICES BETWEEN 100 TO 105 DEGREES...MAINLY FOR LOCATIONS WEST OF
THE
INTERSTATE 65 CORRIDOR. SLIGHTLY COOLER AND LESS HUMID CONDITIONS
ARE
THEN EXPECTED FOR THE UPCOMING WEEKEND PERIOD.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL MAY
BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
606 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

ALZ002-004-152345-
LAWRENCE AL-COLBERT AL-
606 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR WEST CENTRAL LAWRENCE AND
SOUTHEASTERN COLBERT COUNTIES UNTIL 645 PM CDT...

AT 605 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
TUSCUMBIA...MOVING EAST AT 30 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MUSCLE SHOALS...SHEFFIELD...TUSCUMBIA...LITTLEVILLE...LEIGHTON...
HATTON...NE SMITH...SPRING VALLEY...
NORTHWEST ALABAMA REGIONAL AIRPORT AND WHITEOAK.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING ON ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE
YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE SEVERAL MILES AWAY FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM.
SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3474 8777 3474 8774 3475 8772 3478 8749
      3451 8738 3453 8753 3457 8753 3457 8778
TIME...MOT...LOC 2305Z 273DEG 26KT 3467 8770

KTW

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
611 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     TSTM WND DMG     7 SW FAYETTEVILLE       35.07N 86.64W
06/15/2016                   LINCOLN            TN   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA TWITTER OF TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN IN THE
            KIRKLAND AND BELLVIEW AREA IN LINCOLN COUNTY TN.

&&

CSTUMPF

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
614 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0605 PM     TSTM WND GST     ATHENS                  34.79N 86.96W
06/15/2016  E60 MPH          LIMESTONE          AL   EMERGENCY MNGR

            EMA REPORTS WIND GUSTS OF 60MPH.

0605 PM     TSTM WND GST     3 N HAZEL GREEN         34.96N 86.57W
06/15/2016  E60 MPH          MADISON            AL   TRAINED SPOTTER

            SPOTTER NORTH OF HAZEL GREEN REPORTING WIND GUSTS OF
            60MPH.

&&

CSTUMPF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
633 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

ALZ006>008-160015-
MARSHALL AL-MORGAN AL-MADISON AL-
633 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MARSHALL...MORGAN
AND SOUTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

AT 632 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
MARSHALL SPACE FLIGHT CENTER...OR NEAR REDSTONE ARSENAL...MOVING SOUTH
AT 35 MPH.

WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHERN HUNTSVILLE...DECATUR...HARTSELLE...GUNTERSVILLE...ARAB...REDSTONE
ARSENAL...PRICEVILLE...OWENS CROSS ROADS...FALKVILLE AND TRIANA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREE
LIMBS...ALONG WITH OTHER SMALL UNSECURED ITEMS. SEEK SAFE SHELTER
UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING ON ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE
YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE SEVERAL MILES AWAY FROM THE PARENT THUNDERSTORM.
SEEK A SAFE SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3432 8710 3436 8711 3444 8711 3456 8685
      3455 8679 3460 8679 3471 8660 3444 8624
      3430 8647
TIME...MOT...LOC 2332Z 349DEG 31KT 3463 8664

LN

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
640 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0635 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 S HUNTSVILLE          34.68N 86.63W
06/15/2016                   MADISON            AL   PUBLIC

            REPORT VIA TWITTER OF MULTIPLE POWER POLES DOWN ALONG
            PATTON ROAD.

&&

CSTUMPF

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
648 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

ALZ002>007-160015-
MORGAN AL-MADISON AL-LAWRENCE AL-COLBERT AL-FRANKLIN AL-LIMESTONE AL-
648 PM CDT WED JUN 15 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHWESTERN MORGAN...WEST
CENTRAL MADISON...LAWRENCE...SOUTHEASTERN COLBERT...EASTERN FRANKLIN
AND SOUTHERN LIMESTONE COUNTIES UNTIL 715 PM CDT...

AT 647 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR HARVEST TO NEAR TOWN
CREEK...AND MOVING SOUTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE
STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
WESTERN HUNTSVILLE...DECATUR...MADISON...ATHENS...MOULTON...REDSTONE
ARSENAL...TRINITY...TOWN CREEK...LITTLEVILLE AND COURTLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO MINOR FLOODING ON ROADS AND IN LOW LYING AREAS. DO NOT DRIVE
YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3464 8768 3488 8682 3470 8661 3430 8741
      3431 8757
TIME...MOT...LOC 2347Z 315DEG 24KT 3484 8680 3462 8745

KTW