Severe Thunderstorm Warning 17, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
227 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

.DISCUSSION...
THE 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED THAT A WARM FRONT WAS EXTENDING
SOUTHEAST FROM SOUTHEAST MISSOURI THROUGH NORTHWEST TENNESSEE AND
THROUGH NORTHWEST ALABAMA TO ALONG THE TENNESSEE RIVER ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. DEWPOINT TEMPS WERE INCREASING TO THE SOUTH OF THE
WARM FRONT INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S ACROSS WEST CENTRAL THROUGH
CENTRAL ALABAMA ALSO AS OF 19Z. A SHORTWAVE WAS MOVING EAST-NORTHEAST
THROUGH EAST LOUISIANA-SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI THIS AFTERNOON...AND EXPECT
THAT SCATTERED SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND MOVE NORTHEAST
INTO THE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. WILL CONTINUE WITH LIKELY TO
NEAR CATEGORICAL POPS THIS EVENING AND AT LEAST LIKELY POPS OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.

THE SHORT TERM MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE TRAILING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE EAST FROM ALONG THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER BY 12Z SUNDAY AND
INTO THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA BY 00Z MONDAY. EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHRA/TSRA TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON SUNDAY
AS THE BOUNDARY APPROACHES AND MOVES THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA BY
SUNDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED BY THE MODELS TO MOVE
NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY BY MONDAY WITH CONTINUED LIKELY
POPS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE...WHERE HIGH END CHANCE POPS ARE EXPECTED.

BY 12Z TUESDAY...THE UPPER TROUGH TO THE NORTH OF THE FORECAST AREA
IS EXPECTED TO SWING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
REGION...RESULTING IN COOLER AND DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE
REGION. WILL STILL HOLD ONTO JUST A CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE POP ON
TUESDAY...MAINLY IN THE MORNING AS LINGERING PRECIP SHOULD BE HEADING
OUT OF THE AREA. HAVE DECIDED TO DROP THE MENTION OF PRECIP FOR
TUESDAY EVENING/NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD SOUTHEAST
INTO THE REGION. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST...AS A SECONDARY REINFORCING COLD
FRONT SHOULD SHIFT SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AT
THIS POINT...IT LOOKS AS THOUGH ANY SIGNIFICANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
AND PRECIP POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT SHOULD REMAIN
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY
MORNING.

THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTION OF THE U.S. THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED FORECAST
WITH A PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION. HAVE
GONE WITH A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE MUCH COOLER ECMWF AND WARMER GFS
TEMPS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIODS.

TT

&&

.AVIATION...
/ISSUED 105 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016/
FOR 18Z TAFS...VFR CONDS ARE CURRENTLY IN PLACE AT BOTH HSV/MSL
FEATURING BKN DECKS OF AS/CS CLOUDS AND A MODERATE SW FLOW. SHRA
WILL BEGIN TO OVERSPREAD REGION FROM W-TO-E BTWN 30/19-21Z...WITH
CLUSTER OF TSRA CURRENTLY ACROSS WC MISS EXPECTED TO EXPAND AND LIFT
NEWD IMPACTING THE TERMINALS LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY THIS EVENING. TSRA
HAS BEEN INCLUDED AS PREVAILING WX COND AT MSL/21-00Z AND HSV/23-02Z
ALONG WITH MVFR VSBY REDUCTIONS. WINDS WILL BACK TO SSE IN WAKE OF
THIS ACTIVITY WITH BKN/OVC ST/AS DECKS PREVAILING FOR REMAINDER OF
TAF PERIOD. THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT TSRA MAY REDEVELOP EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING ALONG OUTFLOW BNDRY FROM LATE AFTN ACTIVITY AND SHIFT
NEWD ACROSS THE TERMINALS. VCTS/CB HAS BEEN INCLUDED BTWN 01/09-12Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.

70/DD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
HUNTSVILLE    64  81  62  77 /  80  70  40  60
SHOALS        65  81  60  77 /  70  70  30  60
VINEMONT      64  79  61  75 /  80  70  40  70
FAYETTEVILLE  63  79  60  76 /  80  70  30  50
ALBERTVILLE   64  79  61  76 /  80  70  40  70
FORT PAYNE    62  79  60  77 /  80  70  40  60

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
TN...NONE.
&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
1233 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

ALZ001>010-016-TNZ076-096-097-011130-
LAUDERDALE-COLBERT-FRANKLIN AL-LAWRENCE-LIMESTONE-MADISON-MORGAN-
MARSHALL-JACKSON-DE KALB-CULLMAN-MOORE-LINCOLN-FRANKLIN TN-
1233 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTH ALABAMA AND PORTIONS
OF SOUTHERN MIDDLE TENNESSEE.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO MORE
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE MID AFTERNOON TO EARLY
EVENING HOURS...BEFORE WEAKENING AND PUSHING INTO GEORGIA AROUND
MIDNIGHT. STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
WITH THIS ACTIVITY. ANY SEVERE STORMS THAT DEVELOP COULD PRODUCE LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS NEAR 60 MPH.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE INTO SUNDAY...AS THE COLD
FRONT BEGINS TO MOVE EASTWARD ACROSS THE OUTLOOK AREA. A FEW STORMS
MAY BE STRONG TO MARGINALLY SEVERE...AND WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL. RAINFALL MAY ALSO BE HEAVY AT
TIMES ON SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE IN COVERAGE
FROM WEST TO EAST BY SUNDAY NIGHT...AS THE COLD FRONT EXITS TO THE
EAST.

SOME ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY...
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION.

.SPOTTER CALL TO ACTION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL
IS POSSIBLE LATER TODAY.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
334 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

ALZ001>004-302115-
LAUDERDALE AL-LAWRENCE AL-COLBERT AL-FRANKLIN AL-
334 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHEASTERN LAUDERDALE...CENTRAL
LAWRENCE...SOUTHEASTERN COLBERT AND EASTERN FRANKLIN COUNTIES UNTIL
415 PM CDT...

AT 333 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED AN AREA OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS OVER PHIL CAMPBELL...OR 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF
HALEYVILLE...TO JUST NORTH OF MOULTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
RUSSELLVILLE...MOULTON...ROGERSVILLE...PHIL CAMPBELL...TOWN CREEK...
LEIGHTON...COURTLAND...NORTH COURTLAND...HILLSBORO AND HATTON.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL BE CAPABLE OF KNOCKING DOWN SMALL TREE
LIMBS...ALONG WITH OTHER SMALL UNSECURED ITEMS. SEEK SAFE SHELTER
UNTIL THIS STORM HAS PASSED.

&&

LAT...LON 3489 8739 3480 8724 3478 8728 3476 8726
      3476 8722 3475 8718 3472 8713 3469 8711
      3463 8711 3430 8758 3431 8782 3434 8786
TIME...MOT...LOC 2033Z 221DEG 34KT 3434 8772

TT

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
353 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

ALZ009-302130-
JACKSON AL-
353 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

...SIGNIFICANT WEATHER ADVISORY FOR NORTHEASTERN JACKSON COUNTY UNTIL
430 PM CDT...

AT 353 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STRONG
THUNDERSTORM NEAR HOLLYWOOD...OR 9 MILES NORTHEAST OF SCOTTSBORO...
MOVING NORTH AT 35 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BRIDGEPORT...SOUTH PITTSBURG...STEVENSON...HOLLYWOOD...PISGAH...ORME...
FABIUS...RUSSELL CAVE NATIONAL MONUMENT...MARTINTOWN AND BASS.

LAT...LON 3466 8580 3473 8603 3499 8590 3499 8567
      3498 8561 3496 8560
TIME...MOT...LOC 2053Z 201DEG 21KT 3476 8590

LN