River Flood Warning 11, NWS Huntsville, AL

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HUNTSVILLE AL
650 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z TAFS

&&

.DISCUSSION...
/ISSUED 153 PM CDT THU MAR 31 2016/
CONVECTIVE TRENDS ARE THE CHIEF WX IMPACT CONCERN FOR THE NEXT
12-18H. MORNING MCS CONTINUES TO EXIT NERN AL. RESIDUAL COLD
POOL/OUTFLOW WAS MODIFYING CONSIDERABLY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH
FLOW TURNING BACK TO THE S-SE AND DEW POINTS INCREASING INTO THE
L-M60S. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY IS STILL DEFINED FROM NEAR MEMPHIS SE
TO JUST N OF BIRMINGHAM. THE AIRMASS IN THE WARM SECTOR SW OF THE
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WAS DESTABILIZING SIGNIFICANTLY WITH MLCAPE VALUES
OF 1000-1500 J/KG. IN FACT, SEVERAL SMALL CONVECTIVE CELLS WERE
DEVELOPING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY IN MS S OF THE SEVERE MCS/SUPERCELLS
CROSSING THE MS RIVER. WE WILL BE AWAITING VORTEX SE/REDSTONE
SOUNDINGS THIS AFTERNOON TO FURTHER DEFINE THE SEVERE WX THREAT.
FORECAST 6KM BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL BE INCREASING TO 55-65KT THRU
THIS EVENING AS AN UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM MIGRATES INTO THE LOWER MS
AND GULF STATE REGION. THUS, WE FULLY EXPECT SUPERCELLS TO DEVELOP
OUT OF THE CONVECTION TO OUR W AND MIGRATE INTO NRN AL AND SRN TN
THIS EVENING. SHORT RANGE CONVECTIVE ALLOWING MODELS ALL HAVE SHOWN
VARYING EVOLUTIONS FROM SUPERCELLS/CLUSTERS INTO ONE MORE QLCS
LINES. DESPITE LOW LEVEL WINDS OF 9-8H TURNING MORE SWLY AND
WEAKENING THIS MORNING, THEY MAY IN FACT BACK TO A MORE SOUTHERLY
DIRECTION THIS EVENING, KEEPING LOW LEVEL HODOGRAPHS QUITE FAVORABLE
FOR TORNADOES. RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1-2 INCHES (LOCALLY HIGHER) FELL
THIS MORNING IN NWRN AL, SO THIS MAY BE AN AREA OF HIGHER CONCERN FOR
SOME FLASH FLOODING THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, LESSOR AMOUNTS FURTHER
EAST MAY HAVE LOWERED THE THREAT. WE WILL MAINTAIN THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IN PLACE AS IS HOWEVER DUE TO SOME POTENTIAL ECHO TRAINING THAT
COULD STILL TAKE PLACE OVERNIGHT INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF
FRIDAY.

HAVE HAD LITTLE TIME TO INGEST THE EXTENDED FORECAST DATA, BUT FAIRLY
BENIGN WX PATTERN, ALBEIT A BIT COOLER, WILL OCCUR THRU THIS WEEKEND.
SHOULD BE A VERY GOOD REBOUND IN TEMPS EARLY NEXT WEEK, BUT THE NEXT
RAINFALL DOES NOT OCCUR UNTIL THE DAY 6-7 PERIOD. HAVE FOLLOWED
CLOSE TO OUR CURRENT FORECAST WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS USING SUGGESTED
BLENDS.

&&

.AVIATION...
FOR 00Z TAFS...
INCLEMENT FLYING WEATHER THIS EVENING AS NUMEROUS SHOWERS/STORMS FORM
AND MOVE ACROSS THE REGION IN A WSW-ENE DIRECTION. SOME OF THE STORMS
COULD BECOME STRONG TO SEVERE...WITH LARGE HAIL...WIND GUSTS OVER
50KT AND TORNADOES ALL POSSIBLE. AS SUCH AND WITH CONVECTION NEARING
KMSL...KEPT VCTS IN WITH MORE NUMEROUS CONVECTION THERE WITHIN THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD AFFECT KHSV A COUPLE OF HOURS
LATER. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE SYSTEM WILL SWEEP TO THE
EAST...REACHING NW AL AFTER MIDNIGHT AND NE AL AROUND DAYBREAK FRI.
SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD WIND DOWN AS THE FRONT PASSES. GIVEN MORE
PRECIP OVER NW AL... HAVE INCLUDED MVFR FOG BEFORE DAYBREAK FRI. DID
NOT INCLUDE FOG FOR KHSV. VFR WEATHER OTHERWISE WILL RETURN AROUND
AND AFTER DAYBREAK...CONTINUING FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF.

RSB

&&

.HUN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR ALZ001>010-016.

TN...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR TNZ076-096-097.

&&

FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE VISIT OUR WEBSITE
AT WEATHER.GOV/HUNTSVILLE.

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