Winter Storm Warning 8, NWS Hanford, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
300 AM PST FRI MAR 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
TONIGHT BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW ALONG WITH
INCREASED WINDS. A SECOND WEATHER SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH
LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FOR A CONTINUED THREAT OF UNSETTLED
WEATHER.
&&

.DISCUSSION...REGIONAL RADARS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE MAIN AREA OF
RAIN REMAINING OVER THE BAY AREA WITH THE LEADING EDGE NOW JUST
MAKING IT TO MONTEREY. THE SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATION OF
THE PRECIPITATION HAS JUST EDGED TO THE EAST THEREFORE THE
BEGINNING OF RAIN IN THE CENTRAL INTERIOR WILL HAVE TO WAIT A BIT
LONGER. HIGH RESOLUTION RAPID REFRESH MODEL SHOWS THE SOONEST THE
RAIN WILL MOVE INTO MERCED COUNTY WILL NOT HAPPEN UNTIL MID
MORNING AND THEN SPREAD QUICKLY EAST AND SOUTH.

GIVEN THE TIMING OF THE INCOMING PRECIPITATION ALONG WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER QPF, I HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY TO WINTER
STORM WARNING BUT DELAYED TO START TIME UNTIL NOON. LATEST MODEL
FORECAST PRECIPITATION INDICATES UP TO 15 INCHES OF SNOW IN THE
SIERRA THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE AN ISSUE TODAY AND
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY FROM MID
MORNING THROUGH FRONTAL PASSAGE LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND ALSO FOR
THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERTS FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING.

THUNDERSTORMS COULD BE AN ISSUE AFTER 2 PM TODAY AS COLDER AIR
ALOFT INCREASES INSTABILITY AND MODELS INDICATE A MAXIMUM OF CAPE
OCCURRING BETWEEN 2 AND 8 PM.

THIS FIRST TROUGH IS PROGGED BY MODELS TO MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY
EARLY SATURDAY AND THEN A BREAK IN THE WET WEATHER WILL OCCUR AS
WEAK RIDGING KEEPS THE NEXT FAST MOVING SYSTEM CONFINED TO MAINLY
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA THROUGH LATE SATURDAY NIGHT OR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS SECOND SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE TARGETING NORTHERN
CALIFORNIA HOWEVER RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW APPEAR TO BE LIKELY TO
AT LEAST FRESNO COUNTY. WILL KEEP THE FOCUS OF THIS DISCUSSION ON
TODAY'S STORM HOWEVER. AFTER THE SECOND WEATHER FEATURE MOVES EAST
BY MONDAY NEXT WEEK LOOKS MAINLY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL APPROACH CENTRAL CALIFORNIA FRIDAY MORNING
RESULTING IN BREEZY SOUTHERLY WINDS ACROSS THE TERMINAL BEGINNING
LATE MORNING AND CONTINUING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE TERMINALS GENERALLY BETWEEN
18Z FRIDAY AND 00Z SATURDAY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ABOUT THUNDERSTORMS IMPACTING THE TERMINALS...SO
IT WAS NOT ADDED TO THE FORECAST. AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
DEVELOPING THIS AFTERNOON OVER THE SIERRA AND TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS.
GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AN/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 4 AM PST SATURDAY ABOVE
6000 FEET FOR THE CAZ096-097.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM PST THIS EVENING
CAZ095-098-099.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM PST THIS EVENING
CAZ089>091.

&&

PUBLIC...DUDLEY
AVN/FW...MV
SYNOPSIS...ANDERSEN

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
848 PM PST THU MAR 10 2016

CAZ089>095-111400-
WEST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-EAST CENTRAL SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
SOUTHWESTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-SOUTHEASTERN SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY-
MARIPOSA MADERA AND FRESNO COUNTY FOOTHILLS-
TULARE COUNTY FOOTHILLS-KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS-
848 PM PST THU MAR 10 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND THE FOOTHILLS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA
NEVADA AND THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

...SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

* TIMING: FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

* LOCATIONS INCLUDE: ENTIRE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY...FOOTHILLS...AND
  KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS.

* IMPACTS: THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP MAY HAVE SMALL HAIL...GUSTY
  WINDS...AND BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS. WHEN THUNDER ROARS GO
  INDOORS. LIGHTNING CAN BE DEADLY.

* STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...OR YOUR FAVORITE NEWS
  SOURCE...FOR FURTHER INFORMATION.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

WEATHER SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT ANY SIGNIFICANT OR
UNUSUAL CONDITIONS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

ANDERSEN