Alert archive / California / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 2016

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 11, NWS Hanford, CA

May 5, 2016Fresno County, Madera County, Merced County, California

NWS Hanford, CA issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 5, 2016, 6:45 PM PDT for Fresno County, Madera County, Merced County, California. It was in force for 30 min. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named.

The facts

Issued: May 5, 2016, 6:45 PM PDT (01:45 UTC)
Expired: May 5, 2016, 7:15 PM PDT
In force: 30 min
Issued by: NWS Hanford, CA
Area: Storm-based polygon

Counties Fresno County, CA, Madera County, CA, Merced County, CA

The radar

The San Joaquin Valley radar (KHNX), 90 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 01:45 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

The nearest sounding before it

Vandenberg AFB, CA (KVBG), launched 00:00Z, 1.8 hours before the alert went out and 262 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-p

Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.

Hodograph

The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.

Mixed-layer CAPE: 0 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN: No buoyant parcel
Mixed-layer LCL: 1123 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear: 7 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity: 28 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity: 64 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter: 0.0
Supercell composite: 0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS Hanford, CA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 5, 2:00 PM PDT, 4 hours 45 minutes earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 5, 2:00 PM PDT, 4 hours 45 minutes before

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
200 PM PDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BRING UNSETTLED WEATHER
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE THREAT OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE REGION ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LARGE UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SITUATED OFF THE SOCAL
COAST NEAR 34N/134W IS CONTINUING TO SPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS INTO
OUR AREA. THIS HAS RESULTED IN NOTICABLE COOLING TREND WITH
TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RUNNING 8-16 DEG F BELOW YDAY AT MOST
LOCATIONS. SOME THUNDERSTORMS HAVE POPPED UP ALONG THE CREST OF
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA...BUT THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS REMAINED NORTH OF OUR CWFA IN A STRONG
DIFLUENT ZONE OVER NORCAL. THE WRF AND THE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
HAVE BEEN INDICATING BETTER THUNDERSTORM CHANCES THROUGHOUT OUR
AREA LATER THIS AFTERNOON. THE 12Z WRF INDICATED CAPES EXCEEDING
1000 J/KG ACROSS MUCH OF OUR AREA WITH LI/S BETWEEN -3 AND -6 DEG
C. HOWEVER...THE 18Z WRF HAS BACKED OFF ON CAPE AND INSTABILITY
WITH CAPES MAINLY BETWEEN 400 AND 800 J/KG AND LI/S BETWEEN -1 AND
-4 DEG C. WHILE THERE IS STILL A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS NEARLY ANYWHERE IN OUR CWFA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS BECOMING LESS
LIKELY.

THE LOW IS PROGGED TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY EASTWARD TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING THEN REMAIN NEARLY QUASI-STATIONARY OVER SOCAL
THROUGH SATURDAY. THIS WILL KEEP CENTRAL CA UNDER A WRAP AROUND
NORTHEAST FLOW WITH CONTINUED CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND MUCH COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMEPRATURES. ANTICIAPTED RAINFALL TOTALS THROUGH
SATURDAY WILL BE VERY DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT BASED ON THE
CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THE PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL RANGE
BETWEEN 8000 AND 9000 FEET THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT LOWER TO
7000 TO 7500 FEET BY FRIDAY NIGHT AS TEMPERATURES COOL ALOFT. SOME
OF THE HIGHER PEAKS OF THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA COULD PICK UP
SEVERAL INCHES OF FRESH SNOWFALL.

THE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN MOVING THE LARGE UPPER LOW EAST
INTO THE DESERT SOUTHWEST SATRUDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WHILE AN UPPER
RIDGE AMPLIFIES OFF THE WESTERN CONUS COAST. AS A
RESULT...TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER SOME WHILE SHOWERS DECREASE
IN COVERAGE WITH THE BEST CHANCES REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN
SIERRA NEVADA.

THE RIDGE IS THEN PROGGED TO SLOWLY BUILD INLAND MONDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY WHICH WILL BRING A NOTICABLE WARMING AND DRYING TREND
ACROSS OUR AREA WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...INCREASING AREAS OF MVFR AND LOCAL MOUNTAIN OBSCURING
IFR OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THRU 00Z FRIDAY...THEN MAINLY
IFR OVER THE SOUTHERN SIERRA NEVADA THRU 00Z SATURDAY. INCREASING
AREAS OF MVFR OVER THE TEHACHAPI MOUNTAINS AFTER 00Z FRIDAY.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE CENTRAL CA INTERIOR.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...NONE.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
AN/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

PUBLIC...DS
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...BSO

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 5, 4:52 PM PDT, 1 hour 53 minutes before

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Special weather statement, May 5, 5:06 PM PDT, 1 hour 39 minutes before

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Special weather statement, May 5, 5:31 PM PDT, 1 hour 14 minutes before

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Special weather statement, May 5, 5:40 PM PDT, 1 hour 5 minutes before

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Local storm report, May 5, 5:44 PM PDT, 1 hour 1 minute before

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Special weather statement, May 5, 6:05 PM PDT, 40 minutes before

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The office that day

Everything else NWS Hanford, CA issued on the same UTC day.

Issued	Product	Office	Counties	Lasted
May 5, 5:06 PM PDT	Special Weather Statement	HNX	San Benito	39 min
May 5, 5:11 PM PDT	Areal Flood Advisory	HNX	Kern	3 hr
May 5, 5:31 PM PDT	Special Weather Statement	HNX	Kings	44 min
May 5, 5:34 PM PDT	Areal Flood Advisory	HNX	Kern	3 hr
May 5, 5:35 PM PDT	Areal Flood Advisory	HNX	Fresno, Kern, Kings	3 hr
May 5, 5:36 PM PDT	Areal Flood Advisory	HNX	Fresno	3 hr
May 5, 5:40 PM PDT	Special Weather Statement	HNX		50 min
May 5, 6:02 PM PDT	Areal Flood Advisory	HNX	Fresno, Kings	3 hr
May 5, 6:05 PM PDT	Special Weather Statement	HNX	Merced	40 min
May 5, 6:10 PM PDT	Areal Flood Advisory	HNX	Fresno, Merced	3 hr
May 5, 6:56 PM PDT	Special Weather Statement	HNX	Kings	49 min
May 5, 7:28 PM PDT	Areal Flood Advisory	HNX	Fresno, Merced	3 hr
May 5, 7:35 PM PDT	Areal Flood Advisory	HNX	Fresno, Kings, Madera	3 hr
May 5, 7:38 PM PDT	Special Weather Statement	HNX	Tulare	52 min
May 5, 7:44 PM PDT	Special Weather Statement	HNX	Kern	46 min
May 5, 8:54 PM PDT	Areal Flood Advisory	HNX	Fresno	2 hr
May 5, 9:42 PM PDT	Areal Flood Advisory	HNX	Fresno, Madera, Merced	2 hr
May 5, 9:53 PM PDT	Special Weather Statement	HNX	Fresno	37 min
May 5, 9:59 PM PDT	Special Weather Statement	HNX	Madera	46 min
May 5, 10:32 PM PDT	Special Weather Statement	HNX	Fresno	43 min
May 6, 1:02 PM PDT	Flash Flood Watch	HNX		9 hr
May 6, 1:45 PM PDT	Areal Flood Advisory	HNX	Fresno	2 hr
May 6, 2:18 PM PDT	Special Weather Statement	HNX		42 min
May 6, 2:26 PM PDT	Special Weather Statement	HNX	Kings	49 min
May 6, 2:58 PM PDT	Special Weather Statement	HNX		17 min
May 6, 3:23 PM PDT	Special Weather Statement	HNX		37 min
May 6, 3:45 PM PDT	Areal Flood Advisory	HNX	Fresno, Kern, Kings	2 hr
May 6, 3:56 PM PDT	Flash Flood Warning	HNX	Fresno, Kings	3 hr
May 6, 3:58 PM PDT	Special Weather Statement	HNX	Kings	47 min
May 6, 4:24 PM PDT	Special Weather Statement	HNX	Kern	36 min
May 6, 4:26 PM PDT	Flash Flood Warning	HNX	Fresno	94 min
May 6, 4:37 PM PDT	Special Weather Statement	HNX	Kings	38 min
May 6, 4:45 PM PDT	Areal Flood Advisory	HNX	Kern	60 min
May 6, 4:52 PM PDT	Special Weather Statement	HNX	Fresno	38 min
May 6, 4:56 PM PDT	Flash Flood Warning	HNX	Kern	94 min

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in California, 2016 Every severe thunderstorm warning in 2016

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.