Flash Flood Watch 3, NWS Hanford, CA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY - HANFORD CA
348 AM PST FRI JAN 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA INTERIOR TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SUNDAY WILL BE COLDER
WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY AND
A CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW AS LOW AS 2500 FEET. UNSETTLED AND
COOLER THAN NORMAL WEATHER WILL CONTINUE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW IN COMBINATION WITH A
PRECIPITABLE WATER PLUME IN EXCESS OF AN INCH EXTENDING FROM WEST
OF HAWAII TO THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COASTLINE WILL BRING VALLEY
RAIN AND MOUNTAIN SNOW TO THE REGION. THE FIRST ROUND OF
PRECIPITATION WILL IMPACT MAINLY THE MOUNTAINS AS NUMEROUS UPPER
LEVEL SHORTWAVES MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION THIS MORNING
INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN GENERALLY AT OR
ABOVE 8,000 FEET THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING.

ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTH INTO NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...ALLOWING COLD AIR TO FILTER INTO THE
REGION. THIS WILL LOWER SNOW LEVELS TO BETWEEN 6,000 FEET AND
7,000 FEET BY SATURDAY EVENING. BY SUNDAY EVENING...SNOW LEVELS
ARE FORECAST TO PLUMMET TO AS LOW TO 2500 FEET ACROSS THE SIERRA
NEVADA FOOTHILLS AND AROUND 4,000 FEET NEAR THE GRAPEVINE.
ADDITIONALLY...A SIGNIFICANT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST TO
IMPACT THE ENTIRE REGION ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SOUTH
AND EAST INTO SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA. WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
POSTED FOR THE ENTIRE SIERRA NEVADA WITH SNOW ACCUMULATION
OF UP TO TWO FEET ABOVE 7,000 FEET. A FEW ISOLATED HIGHER
ELEVATIONS MAY SEE UP TO THREE FEET OF SNOW BETWEEN THIS MORNING
AND MONDAY MORNING. ADDITIONALLY...THE FOOTHILLS...KERN COUNTY
MOUNTAINS...AND THE GRAPEVINE MAY SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW ON
SUNDAY. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST AND MAY END UP
ISSUING A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THESE LOCATIONS.

RAIN ACCUMULATION FOR THE VALLEY FROM TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL
RANGE FROM A QUARTER OF AN INCH TO A HALF INCH...WITH THE MAJORITY
OF ACCUMULATION OCCURRING ON SUNDAY.

ANOTHER HAZARD FROM THIS STORM WILL BE STRONG WINDS ACROSS THE
DESERT ON SATURDAY. WIND GUSTS TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE
ESPECIALLY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A WIND ADVISORY
HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS
FOR THE KERN COUNTY MOUNTAINS AND DESERT.

MARINAL INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE VALLEY ON SUNDAY AS
THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES ONSHORE. THIS IN COMBINATION WITH ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY RESULT IN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...HOWEVER
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER INTO MONDAY MORNING...WHEN THE
UPPER TROUGH EXITS EAST INTO ARIZONA. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL BEGIN TO SLOWLY SHIFT EAST
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND
TUESDAY INTO THE END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
AREAS OF IFR AND LOCAL LIFR IN FOG IN THE SAN JOAQUIN VALLEY THROUGH
18Z FRIDAY...THEN IMPROVING TO AREAS MVFR AND LOCAL IFR IN HAZE/MIST.
MOUNTAIN OBSCURING IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN/SNOW SPREADING SOUTH OVER
THE SOUTHERN SIERRA FROM YOSEMITE TO KINGS CANYON. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA INTERIOR OVER
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...
ON FRIDAY JANUARY 29 2016... FIREPLACE/WOOD STOVE BURNING STATUS
IS: NO BURNING UNLESS REGISTERED IN FRESNO... KERN... KINGS...
MADERA... MERCED AND TULARE COUNTIES.
FURTHER INFORMATION IS AVAILABLE AT VALLEYAIR.ORG

&&

.CERTAINTY...

THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 1 AND 2 IS MEDIUM.
THE LEVEL OF CERTAINTY FOR DAYS 3 THROUGH 7 IS MEDIUM.

CERTAINTY LEVELS INCLUDE LOW...MEDIUM...AND HIGH. PLEASE VISIT
WWW.WEATHER.GOV/HNX/CERTAINTY.PHP /ALL LOWER CASE/ FOR ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION AND/OR TO PROVIDE FEEDBACK.

&&

.CLIMATE...
             RECORDS
SITE DATE    HI_MAX:YEAR LO_MAX:YEAR HI_MIN:YEAR LO_MIN:YEAR

KFAT 01-29       73:1960     43:2002     55:1911     24:1902
KFAT 01-30       74:1984     41:1923     56:1911     25:1946
KFAT 01-31       75:1984     39:1969     55:1963     26:1949

KBFL 01-29       74:1986     42:2002     54:1986     27:1903
KBFL 01-30       77:1911     44:1951     54:1914     23:1902
KBFL 01-31       82:1984     45:1969     57:1963     23:1902
&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM PST MONDAY
CAZ097.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 AM PST MONDAY
CAZ096.

WIND ADVISORY FROM 8 AM TO 10 PM PST SATURDAY CAZ095-098-099.

&&

PUBLIC...RILEY
AVN/FW...DCH
SYNOPSIS...RILEY

WEATHER.GOV/HANFORD

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