Special Weather Statement, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
357 PM CDT Fri Sep 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered thunderstorms continue to drift southward along and
west of Interstate 45, aided by daytime heating and a shortwave
trough evident on afternoon water vapor imagery moving across the
region. Closer to the coast, a weak sea breeze had begun to
develop and move inland with a few isolated thunderstorms
beginning to fire up along it. Expect this isolated to scattered
convection to continue into the evening hours, possibly lingering
through the evening as a result of weak forcing from the
aforementioned shortwave trough as it continues to slide southeast
towards the Gulf.

Dry conditions are expected for the overnight hours inland.
However, may see a few showers and thunderstorms fire up over the
coastal waters as some weak speed convergence develops after
midnight in response to a tightening pressure gradient as a
surface high (now stretching from the Southern Plains to the Great
Lakes) approaches. Otherwise, could see some isolated patches of
fog early Saturday morning with overnight lows in the 70s to near
80.

Drier air associated with the surface high nudging into the area
may make it as far south as the Piney Woods region tonight into
Saturday, but expect another round of diurnally-driven isolated to
scattered thunderstorms outside of this area on Saturday.
Anticipate greatest coverage to focus within the deeper moisture
ahead of the surface high, roughly along and west of a College
Station to Anahuac line. While morning tailgates in this area look
dry, folks attending any football game tomorrow afternoon and
evening will want to keep an eye on the weather with thunderstorms
posing a lightning, brief heavy rain, and localized gusty wind
threat.

Return flow begins late Saturday into Sunday, with waves of Gulf
moisture pushing back into the region. This will result in
scattered showers and thunderstorms spreading across the coastal
waters and into the region on Sunday. Expect highs in the upper
80s to low 90s this weekend, with lows in the 70s to near 80.

Deeper moisture looks to arrive from the Bay of Campeche on Labor
Day, with scattered to possibly numerous showers and thunderstorms
expected throughout the day. Only carrying 40 PoPs for Monday now,
as the region's proximity to upper ridging (and associated
subsidence) over the lower Mississippi River Valley may end up
limiting better coverage. However, this may need to be increased
with later forecasts as both the deterministic GFS and European
show weak waves rotating around the upper ridge that may provide
some enhancement to overall coverage. Long story short, Labor Day
has the best chances for rain over the next week and anyone with
outdoor plans will need to keep an eye on the forecast. Deep
southerly flow should keep storms moving (southerly 850-300 MB
mean flow 10-15 knots), but the elevated moisture levels (forecast
precipitable water values 2.1-2.3 inches) raise concerns for
locally heavy rain.

After Labor Day, upper ridging continues to intensify over the
lower Mississippi Valley and spread into the Mid South with mid-
level heights increasing into the 595-598 decameter range. This
building ridge will result in near to slightly above normal
temperatures in the low to mid 90s and gradually drier conditions
for Southeast Texas, with best rain chances along the sea breeze
Tuesday through Thursday.

Huffman

&&

.MARINE...
Light to occasionally moderate winds will prevail through Sunday
as they gradually swing around from the northeast and east to the
southeast. Look for a slight increase in winds and gradually
building seas next week under a persistent onshore flow. At this
time...no caution flags or advisories are anticipated. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      73  91  74  92  76 /  10  20  10  20  10
Houston (IAH)              76  92  75  92  77 /  10  20  10  40  10
Galveston (GLS)            80  90  81  89  81 /  20  20  20  40  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

Discussion...14
Aviation/Marine...42

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
515 PM CDT FRI SEP 2 2016

TXZ227-022300-
FORT BEND TX-
515 PM CDT FRI SEP 2 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL FORT BEND COUNTY THROUGH 600
PM CDT...

AT 515 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
NEW TERRITORY...OR NEAR SUGAR LAND...MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 5 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SUGAR LAND...MISSOURI CITY...ROSENBERG...STAFFORD...RICHMOND...FIRST
COLONY...TOWN WEST...PECAN GROVE...MISSION BEND...FRESNO...MEADOWS
PLACE...NEEDVILLE...PLEAK...FAIRCHILDS...BEASLEY...THOMPSONS...FOUR
CORNERS...FIFTH STREET...NEW TERRITORY AND GREATWOOD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2970 9569 2958 9547 2936 9570 2944 9596
      2955 9592
TIME...MOT...LOC 2215Z 043DEG 6KT 2959 9568

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
529 PM CDT FRI SEP 2 2016

TXZ227-237-022315-
BRAZORIA TX-FORT BEND TX-
529 PM CDT FRI SEP 2 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL BRAZORIA AND
SOUTHEASTERN FORT BEND COUNTIES THROUGH 615 PM CDT...

AT 529 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
SIENNA PLANTATION...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FRESNO...MOVING SOUTHWEST
AT 10 MPH.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHEASTERN MISSOURI CITY...FRESNO...ARCOLA...IOWA COLONY...
FAIRCHILDS...THOMPSONS...SIENNA PLANTATION...BRAZOS BEND STATE
PARK...ROSHARON AND JULIFF.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2955 9548 2939 9539 2923 9562 2947 9577
TIME...MOT...LOC 2229Z 062DEG 10KT 2944 9551

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
535 PM CDT FRI SEP 2 2016

TXZ226-235>237-022330-
MATAGORDA TX-BRAZORIA TX-JACKSON TX-WHARTON TX-
535 PM CDT FRI SEP 2 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL WHARTON...NORTHERN
MATAGORDA...SOUTHWESTERN BRAZORIA AND EAST CENTRAL JACKSON COUNTIES
THROUGH 630 PM CDT...

AT 534 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BAY CITY TO NEAR BRAZORIA. MOVEMENT WAS
WEST AT 15 MPH. THE LINE OF STORMS WAS SAGGING SOUTHWEST WHILE NEW
STORMS WERE DEVELOPING TO THE WEST ALONG THE SEABREEZE.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
LAKE JACKSON...BAY CITY...CLUTE...SWEENY...RICHWOOD...BRAZORIA...
JONES CREEK...GANADO...MARKHAM...WILD PEACH VILLAGE...VAN VLECK...
BLESSING...DANEVANG AND MIDFIELD.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2907 9652 2885 9636 2886 9569 2904 9536
      2912 9571 2910 9609
TIME...MOT...LOC 2234Z 068DEG 13KT 2905 9601 2899 9554

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
621 PM CDT FRI SEP 2 2016

TXZ210-226-227-235>237-030000-
MATAGORDA TX-BRAZORIA TX-JACKSON TX-COLORADO TX-WHARTON TX-
FORT BEND TX-
621 PM CDT FRI SEP 2 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WHARTON...SOUTHERN COLORADO...
NORTHWESTERN MATAGORDA...SOUTHWESTERN BRAZORIA...SOUTHEASTERN FORT
BEND AND JACKSON COUNTIES THROUGH 700 PM CDT...

AT 621 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR BRAZOS BEND STATE PARK TO NEAR BAY CITY TO
NEAR SPEAKS. MOVEMENT WAS SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BAY CITY...EL CAMPO...WHARTON...EDNA...WEST COLUMBIA...SWEENY...
GANADO...MARKHAM...BOLING-IAGO...BRAZOS BEND STATE PARK...WILD PEACH
VILLAGE...VAN VLECK...PIERCE...BLESSING...CORDELE...WADSWORTH...
MORALES...DANEVANG...DAMON AND LOUISE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS...AND MAY
LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH
FLOODED ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THESE STORMS.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 2925 9667 2934 9615 2941 9549 2917 9554
      2881 9584 2881 9630 2898 9681 2902 9683
      2903 9684 2906 9694
TIME...MOT...LOC 2321Z 044DEG 9KT 2931 9559 2895 9590 2919 9668