Small Craft Advisory 9, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1202 AM CST THU JAN 21 2016

.AVIATION...
CEILINGS HAVE COME DOWN A LITTLE FASTER THAN ANTICIPATED THIS
EVENING. TAF LOCATIONS FROM KIAH TO THE COAST ARE REPORTING
INTERMITTENT IFR/LIFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WHILE KCLL AND
KUTS HAVE WAVERED BETWEEN VFR/MVFR. AT THIS TIME...THE TREND IS
THAT TERMINALS FROM THE HOUSTON METRO AREA TO THE COAST WILL
BECOME LIFR AND INLAND TERMINALS WILL SETTLE ON IFR.

SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND
TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT
THUNDERSTORMS COULD IMPACT TAF LOCATIONS TO THE NORTH OF I-10 JUST
PRIOR TO FRONTAL PASSAGE.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS TOMORROW MORNING. CEILING AND
VISIBILITY CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS KCLL AND KUTS AT BETWEEN 18-19Z...THE
HOUSTON METRO AREA BETWEEN 21-22Z...AND OFF THE COAST BETWEEN
23-00Z.                                     44

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 848 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS AT 02Z HAS LOW PRESSURE FORMING IN THE TX PANHANDLE.
WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEPENING TROUGH OVER THE S
ROCKIES PUSHING EAST WITH THE SFC LOW IN RESPONSE. OVERNIGHT THINK
THE FORECAST LOOKS ON TRACK AS TEMPS SHOULD NOT DROP MUCH WITH
MOISTURE RETURN AND SE WINDS INCREASING.

FORECAST FOR TOMORROW LOOKS ON TRACK WITH SFC LOW MOVING ACROSS
THE STATE AND BRINGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. MAY BE A FEW STRONG STORMS EAST OF I-45 TOMORROW BUT
MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA.

ONLY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST WERE TO KEEP UP WITH CURRENT TRENDS
WHICH WERE ON TRACK FOR THE MOST PART ANYWAY.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 631 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016/

AVIATION...
MVFR CEILINGS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME IFR OVERNIGHT AS
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOWS IN TO THE AREA AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT THAT WILL ARRIVE EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OVERNIGHT VISIBILITIES WILL RANGE FROM 1/2 A MILE ALONG THE COAST
TO 3-4 MILES AT THE INLAND TERMINALS. SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COULD IMPACT
KCLL...KUTS...OR KCXO...HOWEVER THE PROBABILITY IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO CARRY THUNDER IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME.

WINDS WILL BE FROM THE SOUTHEAST AT 5-10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT...BECOMING
SOUTHWESTERLY AT 10 TO 20 KNOTS TOMORROW MORNING. CEILING AND
VISIBILITY CONDITIONS SHOULD RAPIDLY IMPROVE FOLLOWING FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND WINDS WILL BE FROM THE NORTHWEST AT 15 TO 25 KNOTS.

THE FRONT SHOULD PASS KCLL AND KUTS AT BETWEEN 18-19Z...THE
HOUSTON METRO AREA BETWEEN 21-22Z...AND OFF THE COAST BETWEEN
23-00Z.                                     44

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 PM CST WED JAN 20 2016/

DISCUSSION...
LEADING COOL FRONT REMAINS STALLED JUST OFF THE UPPER TX COAST
LATE THIS AFTERNOON WITH EXTENSIVE STRATUS STREAMING NWD ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA BEGINNING TO BREAK UP IN THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES.
FRONT HAS PUSHED A BIT FARTHER SOUTH THAN EARLIER EXPECTED WHICH
HAS KEPT SCATTERED SHOWERS WELL OFFSHORE TODAY. FAVORABLE
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE SETTING UP FOR PATCHY FOG TONIGHT OVER
THE NEAR SHORE WATERS AND BAYS AS WARMER/MOIST AIR
RETURNS...OTHERWISE ONLY SLGT CHANCE OF A SHOWER REMAINS IN THE
FORECAST OVERNIGHT.

NEXT IMPULSE OVER THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL GAIN AMPLITUDE AS IT
OVERSPREADS THE SRN PLAINS TOMORROW AND BRING A STRONGER COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM...
ONSHORE FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER SERN TX AND ALLOW CURRENT FRONT
OFF THE COAST TO LOSE DEFINITION AS IT LIFTS INLAND AS A WARM
FRONT TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. RAIN CHANCES WILL ALSO INCREASE AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM...WHICH WILL DIMINISH QUICKLY ONCE THE FRONT
PUSHES THROUGH. EXPECT BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL BE NORTH AND EAST AS
STRONGEST LIFT OVERSPREADS MODEST INSTABILITY OVER ERN TX INTO LA.
CAN EXPECT A SEASONABLY MILD DAY TOMORROW WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WHICH WILL
CHANGE QUICKLY LATE IN THE DAY AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.
WINDS WILL BE RATHER BRISK BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AND MAY REACH
GALE CRITERIA OVER THE COASTAL WATERS EARLY FRIDAY. COMBINATION OF
THE COOL TEMPS AND WINDS WILL DIP WIND CHILLS WELL INTO THE 30S
AREA WIDE TO START THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH MAX TEMPS FRIDAY HOLDING
IN THE 50S.

OVERALL THE WEEKEND WILL START OUT QUITE COOL ON SATURDAY BUT
REBOUND QUICKLY SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS WE REMAIN IN A
FAIRLY UNSETTLED PATTERN. MAY SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN MID
WEEK.

48

MARINE...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BLOSSOM ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED
JUST OFFSHORE THIS AFTERNOON. WARMER...MORE MOIST...AIR OVERRIDING
COOLER SHELF WATERS INCREASES THE CHANCE FOR OVERNIGHT DENSE SEA FOG
DEVELOPMENT. STRENGTHENING SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS AHEAD OF A LATE
THURSDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE SHOULD AID IN THINNING OUT ANY EARLY
THURSDAY FOG. A COLD FRONT WILL PASS OFF THE COAST LATE TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND CREATE STRONG ADVISORY LEVEL NORTHERLIES IN ITS WAKE
FRIDAY. GULF NORTHERLIES SHOULD FREQUENTLY GUST TO GALE FORCE FROM
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH OVERNIGHT FRIDAY MORNING PROMPTING AN OFFSHORE
GALE WATCH. RESPONDING SEAS WILL BUILD TO DOUBLE DIGITS....SUBSIDING
WITH A WEAKENING WIND EARLY SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MOVING ACROSS THE
COASTAL REGION SATURDAY AND OFF TO THE EAST SUNDAY WILL WEAKEN WINDS TO
BELOW CAUTION AND VEER THEM AROUND TO ONSHORE EARLY SUNDAY.
31

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      53  67  39  52  32 /  30  40  10   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              57  72  41  54  33 /  30  50  10   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            58  70  45  54  40 /  20  40  10   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THURSDAY TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR
     THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS
     FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...
     WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 10 PM CST THURSDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM TO 6 PM CST FRIDAY FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...39
AVIATION/MARINE...44