Severe Thunderstorm Warning 76, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
343 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed across Southeast Texas
today, some of which became strong with the most intense cell passing
right over Hempstead. Radar indicated very large hail with this cell,
but have yet to hear or see anything larger than penny size. Locally
heavy rainfall has accompanied this activity with radar indicating several
spots getting 2 to 4 inches in/around our northwest counties. More activity
is developing between Houston and the Matagorda Bay area. Models have
not done very well with today's coverage, and this does not give much
confidence in this forecast package. That said, looking for moisture
levels to remain high for the rest of the weekend and the start of the
new week. Scattered (mainly daytime?) showers and thunderstorms are
possible each day, and the stronger activity could pulse to strong/severe
levels tomorrow and Monday along with a threat of locally heavy rainfall
where any training develops. Still anticipating warming temperatures
next week outside of the storms and strengthening south to southeast
winds under a tightening pressure gradient set up between surface high
pressure off to our east and as a series of surface lows forming in
the lee of the Rockies. With Texas troughing taking shape toward the
end of the week, will continue to show increasing rain chances on Thursday
and Friday as we officially kick in the start of June and the 2016 Hurricane
Season. It's only a matter of time before we start talking about summer
heat, so enjoy this weather pattern while you can.  42
&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the mid-Mississippi valley will shift east tonight.
East winds will become southeast by Sunday morning and gradually strengthen
as low pressure over the western high plains deepens. A moderate to
occasionally strong onshore wind will prevail through much of next week.
A long fetch of southeast winds will produce elevated seas next week with
SCEC/SCA conditions possible. Tides will become slightly elevated early next week
and remain elevated through next Friday. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      71  85  71  85  72 /  30  40  10  40  20
Houston (IAH)              72  86  72  87  74 /  30  40  10  40  10
Galveston (GLS)            75  84  76  84  78 /  30  40  10  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

Discussion...42
Aviation/Marine...43

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
528 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-221030-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
528 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF A
HUNTSVILLE TO LIBERTY LINE. STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHER CHANCES COMING ON
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
545 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0523 PM     FLOOD            5 WSW GALENA PARK       29.72N  95.32W
05/21/2016                   HARRIS             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            HIGH WATER OVER THE CURB AT NORTH WAYSIDE DRIVE AND
            INTERSTATE 45. ROAD IS IMPASSABLE.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1600154

DCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
558 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0545 PM     HAIL             1 N CLOVERLEAF          29.80N  95.17W
05/21/2016  E1.00 INCH       HARRIS             TX   TRAINED SPOTTER

            DIME TO QUARTER SIZED HAIL AT BELTWAY 8 AND INTERSTATE
            10.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1600155

DCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
619 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0421 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 WSW MANVEL            29.48N  95.39W
05/21/2016                   BRAZORIA           TX   PUBLIC

            TREES DOWN ON ROAD AT IOWA LANE JUST SOUTH OF HIGHWAY
            6.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1600156

DCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
706 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0636 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 SSE SWEENY            28.99N  95.66W
05/21/2016                   BRAZORIA           TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            BARN TORN UP ON CR 521 AND CR 729 JUST SOUTHEAST OF
            SWEENEY. POSSIBLE TORNADO.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1600157

DCH

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
716 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0653 PM     TSTM WND DMG     2 NW KENEFICK           30.12N  94.87W
05/21/2016                   LIBERTY            TX   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            THUNDERSTORM WIND DAMAGE REPORTED AT FM 1008 AND FM
            2331 JUST WEST OF DAYTON LAKES ESTATES.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1600158

DCH

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
722 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

TXZ200-220100-
LIBERTY TX-
722 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EAST CENTRAL LIBERTY COUNTY THROUGH
800 PM CDT...

AT 721 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
NEAR DAISETTA...OR 8 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SARATOGA...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 40 MPH.

NICKEL SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
DAISETTA.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

&&

LAT...LON 3005 9465 3021 9475 3027 9465 3011 9460
      3011 9450
TIME...MOT...LOC 0021Z 246DEG 41KT 3018 9461