Severe Thunderstorm Warning 70, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
343 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered showers and thunderstorms developed across Southeast Texas
today, some of which became strong with the most intense cell passing
right over Hempstead. Radar indicated very large hail with this cell,
but have yet to hear or see anything larger than penny size. Locally
heavy rainfall has accompanied this activity with radar indicating several
spots getting 2 to 4 inches in/around our northwest counties. More activity
is developing between Houston and the Matagorda Bay area. Models have
not done very well with today's coverage, and this does not give much
confidence in this forecast package. That said, looking for moisture
levels to remain high for the rest of the weekend and the start of the
new week. Scattered (mainly daytime?) showers and thunderstorms are
possible each day, and the stronger activity could pulse to strong/severe
levels tomorrow and Monday along with a threat of locally heavy rainfall
where any training develops. Still anticipating warming temperatures
next week outside of the storms and strengthening south to southeast
winds under a tightening pressure gradient set up between surface high
pressure off to our east and as a series of surface lows forming in
the lee of the Rockies. With Texas troughing taking shape toward the
end of the week, will continue to show increasing rain chances on Thursday
and Friday as we officially kick in the start of June and the 2016 Hurricane
Season. It's only a matter of time before we start talking about summer
heat, so enjoy this weather pattern while you can.  42
&&

.MARINE...
High pressure over the mid-Mississippi valley will shift east tonight.
East winds will become southeast by Sunday morning and gradually strengthen
as low pressure over the western high plains deepens. A moderate to
occasionally strong onshore wind will prevail through much of next week.
A long fetch of southeast winds will produce elevated seas next week with
SCEC/SCA conditions possible. Tides will become slightly elevated early next week
and remain elevated through next Friday. 43

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      71  85  71  85  72 /  30  40  10  40  20
Houston (IAH)              72  86  72  87  74 /  30  40  10  40  10
Galveston (GLS)            75  84  76  84  78 /  30  40  10  30  10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

Discussion...42
Aviation/Marine...43

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
528 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-221030-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
528 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD DEVELOP MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF A
HUNTSVILLE TO LIBERTY LINE. STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY
RAINFALL...FREQUENT LIGHTNING...HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS. STORMS
SHOULD REMAIN BELOW SEVERE LEVELS ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED SEVERE
STORM MAY STILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH
HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS AS THE MAIN THREATS. THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK WITH HIGHER CHANCES COMING ON
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH
ANY STRONG TO SEVERE STORM THIS WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1058 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

TXZ197-211-212-211645-
AUSTIN TX-WALLER TX-WASHINGTON TX-
1058 AM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WASHINGTON...NORTHWESTERN
WALLER AND NORTHEASTERN AUSTIN COUNTIES THROUGH 1145 AM CDT...

AT 1057 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
BELLVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

DIME SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS OF 50 TO 55 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HEMPSTEAD...BELLVILLE AND PINE ISLAND.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM.
LIGHTNING CAN STRIKE 10 MILES AWAY FROM A THUNDERSTORM. SEEK A SAFE
SHELTER INSIDE A BUILDING OR VEHICLE.

TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR NEAREST LAW ENFORCEMENT
AGENCY. THEY WILL RELAY YOUR REPORT TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE IN LEAGUE CITY.

&&

LAT...LON 2989 9622 3000 9638 3026 9632 3016 9596
TIME...MOT...LOC 1557Z 218DEG 37KT 3003 9623

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE Houston/Galveston TX
1217 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1107 AM     HAIL             BELLVILLE               29.95N  96.26W
05/21/2016  E0.75 INCH       AUSTIN             TX   PUBLIC

            PENNY SIZE HAIL NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF FM 1456 AND
            HIGHWAY 159 EAST.

&&

EVENT NUMBER HGX1600153

42

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1219 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

TXZ195-196-211800-
BURLESON TX-BRAZOS TX-
1219 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR CALDWELL...

AT 1218 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM OVER
CALDWELL...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

PEA SIZE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
CALDWELL AND SNOOK.

LAT...LON 3068 9665 3060 9653 3053 9642 3038 9668
      3051 9683
TIME...MOT...LOC 1718Z 222DEG 14KT 3053 9671

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
319 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

TXZ227-236>238-212100-
MATAGORDA TX-GALVESTON TX-BRAZORIA TX-FORT BEND TX-
319 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN GALVESTON...NORTHEASTERN
MATAGORDA...BRAZORIA AND SOUTHEASTERN FORT BEND COUNTIES THROUGH 400
PM CDT...

AT 318 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
JONES CREEK...OR 7 MILES SOUTHWEST OF FREEPORT...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH AND FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
SOUTHEASTERN SUGAR LAND...LAKE JACKSON...ANGLETON...FREEPORT...CLUTE...
WEST COLUMBIA...SWEENY...SURFSIDE BEACH...RICHWOOD...BRAZORIA...JONES
CREEK...DANBURY...IOWA COLONY...OYSTER CREEK...HOLIDAY LAKES...BAILEY'S
PRAIRIE...BONNEY...THOMPSONS...BRAZOS BEND STATE PARK AND WILD PEACH
VILLAGE.

LAT...LON 2878 9541 2900 9583 2958 9560 2907 9510
TIME...MOT...LOC 2018Z 220DEG 21KT 2889 9546

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
356 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

TXZ227-237-238-212200-
GALVESTON TX-BRAZORIA TX-FORT BEND TX-
356 PM CDT SAT MAY 21 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN GALVESTON...EASTERN
BRAZORIA AND EAST CENTRAL FORT BEND COUNTIES THROUGH 500 PM CDT...

AT 356 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
SURFSIDE BEACH...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
GALVESTON ISLAND WEST END...GALVESTON CAUSEWAY...TEXAS CITY...ALVIN...
ANGLETON...LA MARQUE...SANTA FE...EASTERN FREEPORT...HITCHCOCK...
SOUTHWESTERN MANVEL...SURFSIDE BEACH...GALVESTON PIER 21...DANBURY...
BAYOU VISTA...IOWA COLONY...OYSTER CREEK...JAMAICA BEACH...TIKI ISLAND...
HILLCREST AND LIVERPOOL.

LAT...LON 2885 9530 2901 9536 2948 9562 2934 9464
TIME...MOT...LOC 2056Z 222DEG 42KT 2901 9527