Severe Thunderstorm Warning 55, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
117 PM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

.AVIATION...
Light NE winds to prevail the rest of this aftn for SE TX as the
sfc high helps to bridge the offshore flow across the region. At
this time there is guarded confidence with the prospect of isol-
ated to widely sct pcpn later this aftn. Unstable/no cap/daytime
heating are factors for possible development...but available sfc
boundaries are getting hard to find (as per obs). Went with VCSH
for this aftn as a sort of compromise...fully aware that any ac-
tivity we could get will most likely be TS. Rain chances will be
on the decrease this evening with the loss of heating. Otherwise
VFR conditions will prevail. 41

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...

Latest surface observations at 15z show a NW to SE oriented
frontal boundary pushing through SE Texas. The front was
positioned from Austin to Huntsville SE to near Lake Charles.
Dewpoints ahead and along the front are in the low 70s/upper 60s.
Behind the front dewpoints were dropping into the mid to low 60s.
Dewpoints in the 50s were noted NE of Crockett to Lufkin. The
front should be stalling and provide a focus for afternoon showers
and thunderstorms. Latest high resolution models show activity
developing south of a Columbus to Houston line and west of Houston
to Galveston. The 12z CRP/LCH soundings did not show much capping
this morning so once temperatures reach the mid/upper 80s
thunderstorms may start to develop. Given the instability and
trends in last night's storms, think an isolated strong/severe
storm will be possible with hail/wind as main threats. Localized
1-2 inches of rain will be possible.

Main changes to the forecast were to update sky trends as well as
dewpoint/moisture trends based on the front. Forecast keeps 30-40
percent rain chances for this afternoon/evening.

Overpeck

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      86  68  87  66  83 /  20  10  30  30  40
Houston (IAH)              87  69  88  68  85 /  40  30  20  10  20
Galveston (GLS)            82  72  82  73  80 /  20  10  10  10  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
521 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-141030-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
521 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
AN ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING GENERALLY ALONG AND SOUTH OF A BRENHAM TO
CLEVELAND LINE. GUSTY WINDS... HAIL... AND BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CHANCES RETURN TO THE REGION SATURDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS... WITH STORMS
CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS OM ADDITION TO LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO REPORT SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOODING
REPORTS TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-141030-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
GALVESTON BAY-MATAGORDA BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
521 AM CDT FRI MAY 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT
NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY STRONG ONSHORE WINDS ARE EXPECTED SUNDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY... AND SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED.
ELEVATED TIDES AND AN INCREASED RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS MAY ALSO
OCCUR DURING THIS TIME ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL NOT BE NEEDED.