River Flood Warning 207, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
343 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms continue to swirl
across the region this afternoon. Rain totals with this activity
have been generally light, but stronger cells have been capable of
producing a quick inch of rain. The main upper level low
continues to push southeast towards Corpus Christi this afternoon,
but a secondary mid-level circulation (evident on afternoon water
vapor imagery and SPC mesoanalysis) appears have to developed
roughly over the Houston metro. The surface reflection of this
feature appears to be located near Galveston Bay, which has
provided a focusing mechanism for a nearly stationary complex of
thunderstorms over eastern Harris County/western Chambers County
this afternoon. Rainfall totals with this complex have been
nothing short of impressive, with a Harris County gauge near Cedar
Bayou and FM 1492 reporting over 8 inches of rainfall in the past
3 hours from this complex. Expect a localized flash flood threat
to continue in this area for the next few hours before loss of
heating weakens not only this complex (with RAP guidance
indicating it drifting more to the east with movement from the
surface low), but the widespread showers and thunderstorms
occurring across the region. Given these anticipated trends, will
allow the Flash Flood Watch to expire at 7 PM this evening.

A few showers and thunderstorms may be possible overnight, with
better coverage expected during the day tomorrow with the mid
level shear axis remaining along the coast and the development of
a weak sea breeze during the afternoon and evening hours. An
approaching weak cold front (stretching from the Permian Basin
into Northwest Texas this afternoon) will slowly approach during
the day on Sunday, reaching the Brazos Valley Sunday evening.
Precipitable water values will remain high ahead of this feature
(around 1.8 to 2 inches) and the threat for brief heavy rain will
continue for coastal areas. Similar to the past few days, expect
convection to wane with loss of daytime heating.

The shear axis is expected to remain along the coast through
midweek, with scattered showers and thunderstorms during the
afternoon and evenings on Monday and Tuesday from the sea breeze.
While the subtropical jet located over the western Gulf of Mexico
is expected to keep any possible tropical development near the
Yucatan Peninsula well east of the region, it looks to result in
northerly surface flow through midweek (allowing atmospheric
moisture levels to slowly decrease. Upper ridging becomes
established across the region late week, with onshore flow and
returning moisture allowing the sea breeze to become active again
by the beginning of next weekend.

Huffman

&&

.MARINE...
Look for unsettled weather with periods of showers and thunderstorms
to continue through Sunday as a series of disturbances move across the
area. Winds and seas will be higher in and near the stronger storms,
and locally heavy rainfall will be possible. The combination of a weak
cold front moving into the coastal waters on Sunday and expected Gulf
of Mexico tropical development on Sunday and Monday will bring mostly
light offshore winds and significantly lower rain chances to the area
as the upcoming week progresses. Any effects from the Gulf of Mexico
system will remain well east of our area. Weak onshore winds should
return toward the middle to end of the week. 42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      68  85  67  87  68 /  40  20  10  20  10
Houston (IAH)              69  85  69  88  70 /  40  50  20  40  10
Galveston (GLS)            74  83  75  85  76 /  50  40  30  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch until 7 PM CDT this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: Austin...Brazoria...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...
     Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston...Grimes...Harris...
     Houston...Jackson...Liberty...Madison...Matagorda...
     Montgomery...Polk...San Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...
     Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...NONE.
&&

Discussion...14
Aviation/Marine...42

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
345 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-052045-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
345 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN CENTERED OVER SOUTH
TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING
AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL TRIGGER PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. ON AVERAGE MOST LOCATIONS CAN ANTICIPATE 1/2 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL...BUT LOCALIZED SWATHS OF MUCH HIGHER TOTALS
BETWEEN 4 AND 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING SETS UP.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE FOR COASTAL
AREAS INTO SUNDAY. A GRADUAL DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN FOR AREAS
WELL INLAND ON SUNDAY...BUT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-052045-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
GALVESTON BAY-MATAGORDA BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
345 PM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT...
WITH STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIMITING
VISIBILITIES TO 1 NM OR LESS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

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