River Flood Warning 15, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
609 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016

.UPDATE...
THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH HAS EXPIRED. HAVE UPDATED THE FORECAST TO
REFLECT THIS.

40

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 605 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016/

AVIATION...
RADAR TRENDS INDICATE THAT ANY SIGNIFICANT TSRA HAVE MOVED EAST
OF THE TERMINALS. WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING DRY SLOT
OVER AREA WITH PERHAPS A SHORT WAVE HELPING ENHANCE NEW SHOWER
ACTIVITY IN THE GULF. THINK SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
MORNING WITH HRRR MODEL TRENDS NOT SHOWING MUCH PRECIP THROUGH THE
DAY.

SFC LOW IN GULF SHOULD BE VERY NEAR THE COAST AND LIKELY BETWEEN
THE 42035 BUOY AND PLATFORM KBQX. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR CHANGING
WINDS THROUGH THE MORNING AND THEN SOUTHERLY WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON FOR TERMINALS SOUTH OF KCXO. KCXO/KUTS/KCLL LIKELY
REMAIN NORTH OF BOUNDARY AND SFC LOW.

MAIN CONCERN WILL BE CIGS FOR AVIATION. LIKELY HAVE A FULL MIX OF
VFR/MVFR/IFR CIGS THROUGH TODAY DEPENDING UPON SHRA ACTIVITY.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH IFR/LIFR CIGS AFTER 00-03Z THIS
EVENING. TAFS SHOW IFR WITH VISIBILITY DOWN TO 2SM WITH FOG.
MESOSCALE MODELS INDICATE MAYBE SOME SHOWERS FOR FRIDAY MORNING AS
UPPER LOW MOVES INTO S TX.

39

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 412 AM CST THU MAR 10 2016/

DISCUSSION...
THE UPPER LOW OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MEXICO WAS DRIFTING EASTWARD THIS
MORNING. A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AREA ASSOCIATED WITH THE LARGER
STORM SYSTEM WAS LOCATED ABOUT 60 NM OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...
WITH A WARM FRONT LOCATED FROM THE LOW AND ONSHORE NEAR GALVESTON
ISLAND. THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF MOISTURE WAS EAST OF THE UPPER LOW IN
THE WESTERN GULF AND WAS ORIENTED NORTH INTO FAR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
NEAR THE SABINE AND INTO EAST TEXAS. THE BULK OF THE THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY WAS OCCURRING FROM THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR AS FAR WEST
AS HOUSTON AND RANGED NORTHWARD.

RAINFALL RATES IN SOME OF THE STRONGER STORMS WAS ABOUT 3 TO 5
INCHES OF RAIN AN HOUR. FORTUNATELY...THESE STORMS WERE MOVING
NORTHWARD AT A DECENT CLIP AND WERE ONLY DROPPING ABOUT 1 TO 2
INCHES OF RAINFALL AT MOST. BEST PW/S WILL LINGER OVERHEAD UNTIL
ABOUT SUNRISE THIS MORNING. WITH A SMALL WINDOW LEFT FOR THE FLOOD
THREAT...WILL LET THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EXPIRE AT 6 AM. HOWEVER...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LINGER IN AREAS EAST OF INTERSTATE 45
FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR TWO. BY MID MORNING EXPECT THE BEST RAINFALL
TO BE NORTH AND EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.

THE UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO FINALLY DRIFT NORTHWARD INTO THE
STATE LATER TONIGHT. A MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THE LOW MEANDERING
NORTHWARD THROUGH THE EAST-CENTRAL PART OF THE STATE THROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH THE LOW FINALLY SHEARING OUT OVER SE...E...
AND NE TEXAS ON SATURDAY. MODEL QPF DID NOT LOOK TO HANDLE THE
CHANCES OF RAIN VERY WELL...BUT DO THINK THE BETTER CHANCES WILL
BE INLAND OF THE COAST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...WITH THE COVERAGE
BECOME MORE SCATTERED ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL STILL NEED
TO BE COGNIZANT OF THE POSSIBILITY OF BETTER COVERAGE UNTIL THE
LOW FINALLY MOVES OUT OF THE STATE.

A MORE ZONAL PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT
WEEK. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE FLOW COMBINED WITH A
PACIFIC FRONT MAY BRING CHANCES FOR RAIN AT LEAST OVER THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES BY WEDNESDAY.

40

MARINE...
AN AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE 42019 BUOY SHOULD TRACK
NORTH TOWARDS THE UPPER TEXAS COAST THIS MORNING AND THEN INLAND.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS EAST OF THE LOW AND THEN
WINDS SHIFTING TO THE NW AND N. WINDS SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE AS
THE SURFACE LOW MOVES INLAND LATER TODAY. ROUGH SEAS SHOULD REMAIN
SO THROUGH THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY INTO THE AFTERNOON. THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN EXTENDED INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT
FOR ROUGH SEAS REMAINING HIGH. WINDS AND SEAS SHOULD DIMINISH FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. MODERATE WINDS AND SEAS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WILL CONTINUE GIVEN THE TIMING OF HIGH TIDE
THIS MORNING COMBINING WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS. TIDE LEVELS
WILL REMAIN ABOUT 1 TO 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL AS A RESULT. HIGHER
WATER LEVELS WILL IMPACT AREAS ALONG BOLIVAR PENINSULA ESPECIALLY
IN THE HIGH ISLAND AREA NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF HIGHWAY 87 AND
124.

39

CLIMATE...
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL HELPED BREAK TWO RECORD RAINFALL RECORDS
YESTERDAY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

SITE   NEW RECORD     OLD RECORD
KGLS   2.98 INCHES    1.75 INCHES IN 1880
KHOU   2.91 INCHES    1.72 INCHES IN 2015

NOTE TWO INTERESTING ASPECTS REGARDING BOTH RECORDS. THE CITY OF
GALVESTON HAD A 136-YEAR-OLD RECORD BROKEN...WHILE HOBBY AIRPORT/S
OLD RECORD WAS SET JUST ONE YEAR AGO.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      72  60  73  56  74 /  60  50  60  40  20
HOUSTON (IAH)              78  62  76  60  76 /  60  50  60  30  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            75  64  73  63  73 /  50  60  40  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM CST THIS MORNING FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: BRAZORIA...CHAMBERS...GALVESTON...
     MATAGORDA.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...
     MATAGORDA BAY.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM CST THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE
     FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE
     MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND
     TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...39

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