Flash Flood Warning 65, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
351 AM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Upper low seen on water vapor imagery over the Hill Country should
continue drifting southward today/tonight. Large area of
convection initiated along/south of Highway 59 overnight. Offshore
portion looking like it's becoming a bit more dominant. Matagorda
has picked up about 5" rain in the past couple hours with some
street flooding. Tide levels remain above normal so will still
need to keep an eye on rain rates as drainage will be slower than
usual. Further inland with a few exceptions, and in the short
term, rates have somewhat tapered off as offshore precip has
expanded and intensified. Still quite concerned rates could
increase again however as some guidance suggests. Like yday...expect
precip to begin waning late this morning, but threat of additional
precip will linger thru the day w/ daytime heating and diffuse
trof axis/convergent zone near the coast.

Will let the Flash Flood Watch ride for the remainder of the day.
As the upper low moves further south slightly drier air will make its
way into northern zones...and precip chances will diminish there.
But closer to the coast...mid level shear axis, 1.7-2" PW's and
sfc coastal troffiness will persist into early parts of next
week. Precip pattern should transition to more of typical
summertime norm (sct activity developing offshore late at night
and transition inland during the day w/ heating & seabreeze). By
Tue/Wed daytime coverage should further diminish as drier air
makes it further southward. Uptick in rain chances again next
weekend and fetch of deeper Gulf moisture flows back inland. 47

&&

.MARINE...
For the short-term...one of the main issues will be localized strong
wind gusts/elevated seas in/near storms along the coast. All of this
unsettled weather is due in large part to the upper low lingering in
south central TX that is drawing disturbances around it from the SW.
As this system weakens and moves off to the SW...we could see a cold
front move into the coastal waters on Sun. Light offshore winds will
be possible during the early part of next week. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
A messy forecast will likely continue as the upper low lingers over
south central TX today into Sun. This system still progged to slow-
ly sink to the SW...weakening with time. In the meantime, it should
continue to draw disturbances around it into SE TX. Timing of these
disturbances will remain the main issue looking forward. TSRA/SHRAs
will likely prevail for the first part of the 12Z TAFS with a break
possible early this aftn. Daytime heating should get things started
again late this aftn/eve (given the low convective temps). Not that
confident with short-term models for late tonight/early Sun morning
but will probably keep VCSH just in case. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      82  68  85  66  87 /  50  40  20   0  30
Houston (IAH)              81  69  85  69  88 /  80  40  40  20  40
Galveston (GLS)            79  75  84  74  85 /  80  50  40  30  30

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch through this evening FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES:
     Austin...Brazoria...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...
     Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston...Grimes...Harris...
     Houston...Jackson...Liberty...Madison...Matagorda...
     Montgomery...Polk...San Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...
     Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...NONE.

&&

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
249 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-042000-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
249 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CENTERED OVER CENTRAL TEXAS
WILL SLOWLY MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS THIS WEEKEND. A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THIS FEATURE WILL PIVOT INTO
SOUTHEAST TEXAS TRIGGER PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE
WEATHER PATTERN TODAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS.
ON AVERAGE MOST LOCATIONS CAN ANTICIPATE 1/2 TO 2 INCHES OF
RAINFALL...BUT LOCALIZED SWATHS OF MUCH HIGHER TOTALS BETWEEN 4
AND 7 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE WHERE TRAINING SETS UP. WE WILL BE
KEEPING AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER STORM COMPLEX TO
POSSIBLY IMPACT THE AREA OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL CONTINUE SATURDAY. THE THREAT FOR ISOLATED
HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE FOR COASTAL AREAS INTO SUNDAY. A
GRADUAL DRYING TREND WILL BEGIN FOR AREAS WELL INLAND ON
SUNDAY...BUT SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
STILL BE POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO REPORT RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-042000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT
20 NM-COASTAL WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM-
GALVESTON BAY-MATAGORDA BAY-
WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL FROM 20 TO
60 NM-WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT FROM 20 TO 60 NM-
249 PM CDT FRI JUN 3 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

THUNDERSTORMS MAY IMPACT AREAS ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST
TONIGHT. GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL MAY LIMIT VISIBILITIES TO
1 NM OR LESS AT TIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
437 AM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016

TXZ214-238-041030-
GALVESTON TX-CHAMBERS TX-
437 AM CDT SAT JUN 4 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS NORTHEASTERN GALVESTON AND SOUTH
CENTRAL CHAMBERS COUNTIES THROUGH 530 AM CDT...

AT 436 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ALONG
A LINE EXTENDING FROM NEAR SAN LEON TO NEAR GALVESTON PIER 21 TO 7
MILES SOUTHEAST OF GALVESTON PLEASURE PIER TO 17 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
SCHLITTERBAHN. MOVEMENT WAS EAST AT 15 MPH. THESE STORMS WILL MOVE WEST
TO EAST ACROSS THE BOLIVAR PENINSULA.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TEXAS CITY...GALVESTON PIER 21...BOLIVAR PENINSULA...PELICAN ISLAND...
CRYSTAL BEACH...SAN LEON...GILCHRIST...PORT BOLIVAR...ROLLOVER PASS...
SMITH POINT...THE STRAND AND BACLIFF.

LAT...LON 2932 9464 2924 9474 2931 9480 2950 9500
      2962 9455 2946 9438
TIME...MOT...LOC 0936Z 261DEG 15KT 2946 9489 2933 9475 2923 9469 2904
9472