Flash Flood Warning 56, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
345 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

.DISCUSSION...
Flash flood watch extended through Saturday afternoon.

Upper low spinning away west of SAT with s/w reaching CRP to EWX
at 20z. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the
area forming small lines and moving northeast with the mean
7-500mb flow. Belt of convergence seen in the observations from
near SAT to Eagle Lake to Houston to Groveton and this should be
active area through early evening. A second area will likely
develop close to the coast and over the Gulf waters as s/w tracks
across the area this evening. Will be keeping an eye on the upper
low track as it nears the area toward morning and may undergo a
warm core rain event...that would probably only impact the NW
counties.

The region remains in a very favorable area for showers and
thunderstorms with heavy rainfall Friday as upper low stalls and
begins to retrograde while filling. Low level flow backs slightly
and the region will probably see scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms Friday and late Friday night/Saturday morning.
Frontal boundary sagging south Saturday through the area will also
probably become a focus for showers and thunderstorms with
widespread coverage. Overall widespread 2 to 3 inches amount with
localized areas of 4 to 8 inches will be possible. If a warm core
event evolves then the rainfall totals will likely need to be
adjusted upwards. Still to early to pinpoint if that scenario will
develop over the area though.

Dry air spreads into the region from the north Sunday and rain
chances should taper off quickly from north to south and by Monday
afternoon will only carry 20 pops for the coast in deference to
the ECMWF. Monday through Wednesday may be relatively dry.

45
&&

.MARINE...
The thunderstorm complex that has been moving across the coastal
waters for much of the day has all but shifted east of the Upper
Texas coast this afternoon. However, additional showers and
thunderstorms are expected in the wake of this line this afternoon
and evening as a disturbance pushes northeast out of South Texas and
already seeing some development occurring along the Texas Coastal
Bend. With the main upper level storm system that is responsible for
this activity hanging up over Texas, periods of showers and
thunderstorms are expected through the remainder of the weekend as
additional disturbances approach the coastal waters. Locally higher
winds and waves will be possible in any thunderstorm activity, as
well as visibilities reduced to 1 NM or less. Improving conditions
are expected by the end of the weekend as a weak cold front
approaches into the coastal waters, with light offshore flow
persisting into the beginning of next week.

Huffman

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL)      68  80  67  80  67 /  80  80  70  70  40
Houston (IAH)              69  82  69  82  68 /  70  80  60  70  50
Galveston (GLS)            74  81  75  82  74 /  80  80  90  70  50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flash Flood Watch through Saturday evening FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: Austin...Brazoria...Brazos...Burleson...Chambers...
     Colorado...Fort Bend...Galveston...Grimes...Harris...
     Houston...Jackson...Liberty...Madison...Matagorda...
     Montgomery...Polk...San Jacinto...Trinity...Walker...
     Waller...Washington...Wharton.

GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION until 7 PM CDT this evening
     FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: Coastal waters from High Island to
     Freeport out 20 NM...Waters from High Island to Freeport
     from 20 to 60 NM.

&&

Discussion...45

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
715 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-031215-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
715 AM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE COMING AROUND AN APPROACHING WESTERN
UPPER LOW...COUPLED WITH DEEP MOISTURE AND FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS...WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN WITHIN
PASSING THUNDERSTORMS. AREAWIDE RAINFALL TOTALS WILL AVERAGE
BETWEEN 1 AND 3 INCHES...BUT THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TOTALS THAT
EXCEED 5 TO 6 INCHES. HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF 2 INCHES WILL
LIKELY CREATE...OR RE INTRODUCE...FLASH FLOODING. A SECONDARY
THREAT WILL BE STORM WINDS GREATER THAN 30 MPH IN GUST. WINDS OF
THIS MAGNITUDE MAY TOPPLE TREES PER THE ONGOING SATURATED NATURE
OF REGIONAL SOILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A UPPER LOW WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION FRIDAY AND THIS WILL CREATE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITHIN A DEEPLY MOIST ENVIRONMENT TO REGENERATE
PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. RAINFALL TOTALS OF 1 TO 3
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN...WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS OF
GREATER THAN 4 INCHES. FLOODING AND WINDS WILL AGAIN BE THE MAIN
THREAT THROUGH SATURDAY.

A POSSIBLE FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY SAGGING INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
WEEKEND MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL NEAR COASTAL FOCUS FOR CONTINUED DAILY
PRECIPITATION INTO EARLY MONDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS NEED TO BE AWARE OF SEVERE WEATHER OCCURRENCES...FROM HIGH
RAINFALL RATES LEADING TO FLOODING TO DAMAGING WIND AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
TORNADOES TODAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
338 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

TXZ164-177>179-199-022130-
TRINITY TX-SAN JACINTO TX-WALKER TX-POLK TX-MONTGOMERY TX-
338 PM CDT THU JUN 2 2016

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WALKER...SAN JACINTO...
NORTH CENTRAL MONTGOMERY...SOUTHWESTERN POLK AND SOUTHERN TRINITY
COUNTIES THROUGH 430 PM CDT...

AT 337 PM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
WILLIS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 30 MPH.

WINDS IN EXCESS OF 30 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
NORTHEASTERN CONROE...WILLIS...LIVINGSTON...PANORAMA VILLAGE...ONALASKA...
CUT AND SHOOT...NEW WAVERLY...COLDSPRING...POINT BLANK...GOODRICH...LAKE
LIVINGSTON STATE PARK...WEST LIVINGSTON...EVERGREEN AND OAKHURST.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL IS ALSO OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM...AND MAY LEAD
TO LOCALIZED FLOODING. DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE THROUGH FLOODED
ROADWAYS.

&&

LAT...LON 3033 9542 3046 9557 3084 9520 3077 9492
      3055 9494
TIME...MOT...LOC 2037Z 234DEG 24KT 3046 9541

HUFFMAN