Small Craft Advisory 59, NWS Honolulu, HI

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Honolulu HI
830 PM HST Sat Nov 12 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Light winds will continue across the state through early part of
Sunday as high pressure stays just north of the state. Returning
trades later on Sunday may begin to carry more low clouds and showers
onto windward areas, while few afternoon clouds may also develop
across the interior sections. A strong surface high is forecast to
pass far north of the islands in the next few days, with rather
breezy trade winds as well as passing showers to return to the
area at least through the first half of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Light winds continue across the state this evening, as a subtropical
high pressure ridge remains very close to Kauai. Clouds developed
over the islands earlier this evening are dissipating, as the
night-time cooling over the land commences while land breezes
develop. A rather dry and stable airmass persists across the area,
resulting in very limited precipitation. Fair weather is expected to
continue across the area through rest of the evening into early
Sunday morning under a rather dry conditions.

Trade winds will begin to stage a comeback on Sunday, as a high
surface pressure far northwest of the state moves east, closer to
the area. Forecast models indicated a slightly more moist airmass
may spread to the islands at the same time. Hence, as the trade
winds slowly strengthen across the region, a few more low clouds in
the wind flow will reach the area, affecting windward and mountain
sections. Meanwhile, the trades may still be weak enough to allow
limited sea breezes to develop, especially over the lee areas.
Furthermore, clouds will also develop over the islands under daytime
heating. With the increasing trade winds, these clouds will probably
be pushed ed more toward the western end of the islands. Airmass
will remain somewhat stable and result in limited rainfall amounts.

The surface high pressure is forecast to pass far north of the
islands during the early part of next week while strengthen briefly.
Winds across the state may become strong enough to reach advisory
levels later Monday through early Tuesday. Meanwhile, more low level
moisture will return the area as well. Therefore, a return of rather
strong trade winds early next week with an increase in passing
showers, affecting mainly windward and mauka areas.

Winds are expected to ease by the later part of next week as a
weakening front approaches the islands from the north, pushing the
subtropical ridge closer to the main island chain once again. New
model runs still suggest another strong high to move to far north of
the islands by the weekend, though now the models also indicate the
weakening front may actually reach the state by the weekend, then
slowly dissipate in the island vicinity. This scenario points to
possible wet weather for the state next weekend, with the strongest
winds not affecting the islands until the passage of the front.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across the state overnight and Sunday.
Land breezes overnight will give way to increasing trade winds on
Sunday, although localized sea breezes will still occur at some
locations. Isolated MVFR ceilings over the islands early this
evening should dissipate by mid to late evening. With the
increasing trade winds on Sunday, passing showers and isolated
MVFR ceilings will begin to affect windward sections of the
islands.

No AIRMETS are in effect and none are expected overnight.

&&

.MARINE...
The next northwest swell is still expected to arrive the islands by
Sunday morning, peaking Sunday night into early Monday morning, then
gradually diminish through Tuesday. This swell will once again be
large enough to bring warning level surf to north and west facing
shores at least for the smaller islands. The best chance for
warning-level surf for the exposed shores from this source will be
from late Sunday through early Monday. Shall be monitoring the
readings from the buoys far northwest, as they will provide a good
idea on the actual timing of this next event.

Winds and combined seas will remain below Small Craft Advisory (SCA)
threshold through early part of Sunday. However, this will change
late Sunday as the large northwest swell arrives. In addition,
strengthening trade winds will bring SCA level winds late Sunday
into Monday. Expect much of the coastal waters to be under a SCA by
Monday.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.

&&

Aviation...Jacobson
Rest...Hui