Small Craft Advisory 22, NWS Honolulu, HI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
954 AM HST SUN MAY 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A STALLED AND WEAKENING FRONT NEAR MAUI
WILL KEEP MOST WINDWARD SKIES CLOUDY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
SHOWERS MOST ACTIVE OVER WINDWARD PORTIONS OF MAUI COUNTY. THESE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER IN THE
WEEK. MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY NORTHEAST TRADE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS THEN EASE AFTER MID- WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY
A WEAKENING FRONT IS STALLED JUST SOUTH OF MAUI THIS MORNING.
MORE IMPORTANT...ITS ASSOCIATED MOISTURE IS FOCUSED FROM THE
HAMAKUA COAST OF THE BIG ISLAND TO WINDWARD MAUI...WHERE
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES OF UP TO 1.7 INCHES HAVE ALLOWED A FEW
GAUGES HAVE RECORDED WELL OVER 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL IN THE PAST 12
HOURS. THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE IS CONFINED BELOW 10000 FT...BUT A
SLOW EROSION OF THE MID LEVEL RIDGE OVERNIGHT ALLOWED SOME HEAVIER
SHOWERS TO RISE OVER 15000 FT. THIS ALSO TRIGGERED BRIEF HEAVY
SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD KOHALA ON THE BIG ISLAND IN THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS.

LITTLE CHANGE IS EXPECTED TODAY...WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY 1031
SURFACE HIGH NEARLY 1200 MILES NORTHWEST OF THE STATE DRIVING
MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS THAT WILL FOCUS SHOWERS
OVER WINDWARD MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. SOME SPOTTY AND BRIEFLY
HEAVY CONVECTION COULD ALSO FLARE UP ALONG THE HEATED LEEWARD
SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND THIS AFTERNOON. SHALLOWER MOISTURE FROM
THE DISSIPATING FRONT WILL ALSO AFFECT WINDWARD SLOPES OF MOLOKAI
AND OAHU...WHERE GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL CONTINUE
UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. MINIMAL SHOWER ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED ON
WINDWARD KAUAI...WHERE DEW POINT VALUES BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE
LOW 60S WILL MAINTAIN COOL CONDITIONS.

THE GFS AND ECMWF SHOW ONLY SMALL MOVEMENT IN THE LOCATION OF THE
MOISTURE THROUGH AT LEAST MONDAY. THE DEEP LOW DRIVING THE
DISSIPATING FRONT WILL DRIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH MONDAY...WHILE THE
SURFACE HIGH TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STATE REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY. HOWEVER...A SHORTWAVE ALOFT PASSING NORTH OF THE STATE
TONIGHT AND EARLY MONDAY COULD TRIGGER SOME INCREASE IN SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALONG THE BAND OF MOISTURE THAT WILL BE FOCUSED OVER MAUI
COUNTY. THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME FLOODING CONCERNS ON
MAUI...WHERE SOILS COULD BECOME SATURATED...BUT THE PROBABILITY
OF WIDESPREAD FLOODING IS NOT HIGH AT THIS POINT.

LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY
FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WEEK AND INTO NEXT WEEKEND...THE HIGH
TO THE NW WILL BE TEMPORARILY REPLACED BY A DEVELOPING
LOW...LEADING TO A LOOSENING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVER THE
ISLANDS. WINDS WILL RESPOND BY WEAKENING...WITH LIGHTEST WINDS
EXPECTED AROUND FRIDAY. AS THE LOW DISSIPATES NEXT WEEKEND...LIGHT
TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AS HIGH PRESSURE RE-BUILDS TO
THE NW. THE WEAKENING OF THE TRADE WINDS MAY RESULT IN FEWER
WINDWARD CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AS MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISSIPATED FRONT GETS LIFTED TO THE NE OF THE ISLANDS. HOWEVER
LATEST GFS GUIDANCE HAS BACKED OFF ON THE CLEARING...INSTEAD
ADVECTING THE LINGERING MOISTURE TOWARD KAUAI AND OAHU NEXT
WEEKEND. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THAT SOLUTION AND ONLY MINOR CHANGES
TO THE EXTENDED FORECAST HAVE BEEN MADE.

&&

.AVIATION...
A STALLED DISSIPATING FRONT OVER THE EASTERN MOST PART OF MAUI
WILL CONTINUE TO DELIVER CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO MOST OF MAUI COUNTY
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT IMPROVEMENT OVER
THESE ISLANDS FROM LAST NIGHT...HOWEVER EXPECT TO CONTINUE TO SEE
PROLONGED PERIODS OF MVFR TO ISOLATED IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE NORTH AND EAST FACING AREAS. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IS POSTED AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN ALL DAY.

VIS/CIGS REDUCTIONS WILL ALSO BE COMMON ALONG THE NORTHEAST SIDE
OF THE BIG ISLAND...NORTH OF LAUPAHOEHOE. EXPECT CONDITIONS TO
DETERIORATE FURTHER AS TRADE WINDS PUSH FRONTAL MOISTURE TOWARDS
THE BIG ISLAND. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL
LIKELY NEED TO BE ISSUED LATER TODAY. ELSEWHERE ON THE BIG ISLAND
SEA BREEZE DEVELOPMENT WILL ALLOW FOR INTERIOR CLOUDS AND SHOWER
TO FORM THIS AFTERNOON. SOME SHOWERS MAY CARRY BRIEF MVFR...BUT
OTHERWISE EXPECT VFR.

MISTY CONDITIONS AND LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO FILL IN ALONG THE
NORTH AND EAST SLOPES ON OAHU. AIRMET SIERRA FOR MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION IS POSTED AND THIS WILL LIKELY BE THE CASE FOR MOST
OF THE DAY. LOW CLOUDS ALSO CONTINUE TO BANK UP ALONG THE NORTH
AND EAST SLOPES OF KAUAI...HOWEVER ARE NOT AS WIDE SPREAD NOR AS
LOW. NO AIRMET IS ISSUED FOR KAUAI.

THE MODERATE TO LOCALLY BREEZY TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL PERIODS. CURRENT SPEEDS ARE BELOW THE THRESHOLD FOR
ANY WIDE SPREAD LOW LEVEL TURB. HOWEVER AREAS THAT GENERALLY SEE
INCREASED WINDS...OVER MOUNTAINS...THROUGH VALLEYS...AND
CHANNELS...MAY EXPERIENCE PERIODS INTERMITTENT LOW LEVEL TURB.

&&

.MARINE...
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR S FACING SHORES OF ALL
ISLANDS TODAY. ALTHOUGH THERE HAS BEEN A DROP IN LONG PERIOD
ENERGY AT THE LANAI CDIP BUOY...SWELL ENERGY CENTERED AT 14
SECONDS IS HOLDING THIS MORNING...AND COMBINED SEAS REMAIN ABOUT
1.5 FEET ABOVE WAVEWATCH PREDICTIONS. THE SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
DECLINE FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY. PULSES OF MODERATE
BUT SHORT PERIOD NNW TO N SWELL WILL CONTINUE THE NEXT SEVERAL
DAYS...THOUGH RESULTANT SURF WILL REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. A
LONGER PERIOD BUT SMALL NW SWELL IS POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. NO OTHER SIGNIFICANT SURF SOURCES ARE EXPECTED.

A WEAK FRONT WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE NEAR MAUI DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. MODERATE TO LOCALLY FRESH NE TRADE WINDS WILL
PERSIST ALONG AND N OF THE FRONT...WITH SOMEWHAT LIGHTER E WINDS S
OF THE FRONT IN THE SHORT TERM. AS THE FRONT DISSIPATES...MODERATE
TRADE WINDS WILL SPREAD TO THE BIG ISLAND ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
WINDS WILL TREND DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK. IN THE MEANTIME...WINDS
MAY BECOME STRONG ENOUGH LATER TODAY OR MONDAY TO SUPPORT THE
ISSUANCE OF A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ FOR TERRAIN ENHANCED
WATERS...MAINLY AROUND MAUI. HOWEVER...LATEST OBSERVATIONS AND
GUIDANCE DO NOT SUPPORT AN ISSUANCE THIS MORNING.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR ALL SOUTH
FACING SHORES.

&&

SHORT TERM...WROE
LONG TERM...BIRCHARD
AVIATION...EATON
MARINE...WROE/BIRCHARD

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1142 AM HST SUN MAY 08 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

1030 AM     FLOOD            NAHIKU                  20.83N 156.10W
05/08/2016                   MAUI               HI   LAW ENFORCEMENT

            AT MILE MARKER 22 ON HANA HWY, TREES AND ROCKS LITTERED
            ONE LANE. CONTRA FLOW UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE.

&&

JCHEVALI

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