Small Craft Advisory 10, NWS Honolulu, HI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
847 PM HST SAT FEB 20 2016

.UPDATED...
AVIATIIONS SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED.

&&

.SYNOPSIS...
THE WEATHER WILL BE CHANGING OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY AS A FRONT
APPROACHES THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE FRONT WILL MOVE
ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY ACCOMPANIED BY BREEZY
WINDS AND SOME PASSING SHOWERS. A COOLER AND DRIER WEATHER PATTERN
IS EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY WITH WINDS GENERALLY ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. A VERY LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE
STATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE LIGHT WINDS WILL BE GIVING WAY TO A MODESTLY STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY
WIND FLOW OVERNIGHT...AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONT. THE SOUTHERLY
WINDS ARE ALREADY HERE AS NOTED WITH THE SHOWERS OVER LEEWARD WATERS
OF KAUAI WHERE THEY HAVE A NORTHERLY DRIFT. THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY TAKE OVER AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES. STRONG WESTERLY
WINDS ARE ALREADY BLOWING AT THE TWO BIG ISLAND SUMMITS. CANADA FRANCE
HAVE HAD WIND SPEEDS BETWEEN 40 AND 45 MPH IN THE PAST COUPLE OF
HOURS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 60. AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES...THE
HALEAKALA SUMMIT MAY BE AFFECTED BY THESE STRONG WESTERLY WINDS.
AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THE SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AFFECTING MAINLY THE SMALLER
ISLANDS. A WIND ADVISORY IS ALREADY IN EFFECT FOR THE BIG ISLAND
SUMMITS...AND THE WIND ADVISORY WILL BECOME EFFECTIVE AT 6 AM HST
SUNDAY FOR THE HALEAKALA SUMMIT.

LOCALLY STRONG WESTERLY WINDS WILL RUN SLIGHTLY AHEAD OF THE
FRONT/S ARRIVAL...REACHING KAUAI IN BY NOON SUNDAY. IT WILL SPREAD
DOWN THE SMALLER ISLANDS THE REST OF SUNDAY. A WIND ADVISORY FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS IS NOT NECESSARY AT THIS TIME BUT THE
SITUATION WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY.

THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY 600 MILES NORTHWEST OF KAUAI MOVING SOUTHEAST
AT 35 MPH. IT IS FORECAST TO REACH KAUAI ABOUT 2 PM HST SUNDAY...
FOLLOWED BY OAHU SUNDAY EVENING...THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF MONDAY
FOR MAUI COUNTY. THE FRONT SHOULD BE EAST OF THE BIG ISLAND BY MID
AFTERNOON MONDAY.

THE DYNAMICS ARE STAYING NORTH OF THE ISLANDS AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
IS MARGINAL. SO WE ANTICIPATED ONLY SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS. POST-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE  EXPECTED TO BE ON THE LOW END
AS WELL. THEY WILL GRADUALLY FADE OUT MONDAY MORNING. A COOLER AND
DRIER AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW IN MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS THE
NORTHWEST WINDS GRADUALLY SUBSIDES AND GIVES WAY TO A LIGHT
NORTHERLY WIND FLOW. THE DRIER AIR MAY NOT REACH ALL OF THE BIG
ISLAND AS THE GFS SOLUTION MAINTAINS A SHOWERY OUTLOOK THROUGH AT
LEAST TUESDAY FOR THE EAST SIDE OF THE ISLAND.

A WEAK FRONT IS FORECAST TO PASS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND THURSDAY WITH AN UPTICK IN SHOWERS POSSIBLE WITH ITS PASSAGE.
LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH GENERALLY DRY WEATHER EXPECTED AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED...
A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST TONIGHT AND SUNDAY
MORNING...THEN MOVE SOUTHEASTWARD DOWN THE ISLAND CHAIN
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHT WINDS THIS EVENING WILL
INCREASE OUT OF THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
MOISTURE WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT...AND THIS COULD RESULT IN SOME TEMPORARY CIG/VSBY REDUCTIONS
AT SOME OF THE TAF SITES OVERNIGHT AND SUNDAY.

AIRMET SIERRA MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT FOR MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
ACROSS SOME OF THE ISLANDS.

AIRMET TANGO MAY BE NEEDED LATER TONIGHT OR SUNDAY FOR LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE OVER AND NORTH THRU EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS ALL
ISLANDS.

&&

.MARINE...
AN EXPANDING STORM SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY 760 MILES NORTHWEST OF
KAUAI. IT IS GENERATING AND VERY LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL POINTED AT
THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. THIS SWELL WITH WARNING LEVEL SURF IS
EXPECTED TO REACH KAUAI/S NORTH AND WEST SHORES LATE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE SPREADING DOWN THE CHAIN THE REST OF SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE SWELL WILL PEAK MONDAY...THEN GRADUALLY
LOWER TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. WHEN THIS SWELL ARRIVES LATE
SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL ALREADY BE IN
PLACE...MAKING OCEAN CONDITIONS VERY ROUGH...CHOPPY...AND MESSY.
THE UPCOMING FULL MOON WILL CAUSE HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES
ESPECIALLY DURING THE EARLY MORNING TIDE CYCLES MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHTS ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 20 FEET
SO COASTAL RUNUP WILL BE A CONCERN ESPECIALLY DURING TIMES OF HIGH
TIDE. WAVE WATCH MODEL OUTPUT INDICATES THAT THIS MAY BE THE
LARGEST SWELL THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED THIS WINTER SEASON.

ANOTHER VERY LARGE WARNING LEVEL NORTHWEST SWELL IS EXPECTED TO
ARRIVE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PEAK ON THURSDAY...THEN LOWER GRADUALLY
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OPEN OCEAN SWELL HEIGHTS OF AROUND 20 FEET
ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS SWELL.

A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ WILL BE ISSUE SHORTLY THAT WILL BECOME
EFFECTIVE AT 12 PM HST SUNDAY FOR THE ANTICIPATED BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS ON TAP FOR SUNDAY. THE ADVISORY WILL COVER WATERS FROM MAUI
COUNTY WESTWARD EXCEPT MAALAEA BAY. THE SCA WILL BE EXPANDED AT A
LATER TIME TO OTHER REMAINING WATERS DUE TO ELEVATED SEAS IN PART
OF THE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL. THE SCA IS LIKELY TO STAY UP FOR
MOST OF THE NEW WEEK.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 AM SUNDAY TO 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR HALEAKALA
SUMMIT.

WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST MONDAY FOR BIG ISLAND SUMMITS.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECTIVE AT NOON SUNDAY TO UNTIL 6 PM
HST TUESDAY.

&&

SYNOPSIS/DISCUSSION/MARINE...LAU
AVIATION...JELSEMA

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