High Surf Advisory 6, NWS Honolulu, HI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
952 AM HST THU JAN 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER DRY AND STABLE SEA BREEZE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TODAY
ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE...WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS PICKING UP IN THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS KAUAI AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
WEAK FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO KAUAI AND OAHU TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...THEN STALL AND DISSIPATE OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF
THE STATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY. A STABLE LAND AND SEA
BREEZE REGIME WILL RETURN BY SUNDAY...WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONT
FORECAST TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE NEXT TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE STATE THIS
MORNING. RADAR DETECTS ONLY SOME LIGHT SHOWERS SOUTHEAST OF THE
BIG ISLAND...AND A FEW CLOUDS AND SHOWERS MOVING ONTO KAUAI FROM
THE WEST. SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS
OVER THE STATE...WITH A COLD FRONT LOCATED ABOUT 325 MILES
NORTHWEST OF KAUAI AND MOVING STEADILY TO THE SOUTHEAST. A DRY AND
STABLE ATMOSPHERE IS IN PLACE OVER THE ISLANDS...WITH THE 12Z
SOUNDINGS SHOWING PWATS RANGING FROM 0.77 TO 0.97 INCHES...AND
INVERSIONS BASED BETWEEN 5500 AND 7000 FEET. MIMIC-TPW SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A DRY ENVIRONMENT IMMEDIATELY AROUND THE
ISLANDS... WITH ESTIMATED PWATS UP TO 1.7 INCHES ALONG THE
APPROACHING FRONT TO OUR NORTHWEST.

DRY AND STABLE WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TODAY OVER THE STATE AS THE
FRONT MOVES CLOSER. SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP AND GENERATE SOME
INTERIOR AFTERNOON CLOUDS WITH LITTLE RAINFALL. SOUTHWESTERLY
WINDS BE INCREASING DURING THE AFTERNOON NEAR KAUAI AND OAHU...
LIKELY OVERPOWERING ISLAND SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AS THE FRONT
APPROACHES. HAZE WILL BE PRESENT ACROSS THE STATE AGAIN TODAY...BUT
WILL LIKELY BE SWEPT TO THE EASTERN END OF THE STATE LATE IN THE
DAY AS THE SOUTHWEST WINDS BUILD IN.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS KAUAI TONIGHT...AND OAHU
FRIDAY MORNING...BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
STATE ON FRIDAY. EXPECT MODEST RAINFALL TO BE FOCUSED ALONG NORTH
FACING SLOPES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH. HIGH-RESOLUTION MODELS
INDICATE THAT WE WILL SEE SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE NORTH TO
NORTHEAST WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK TRADE WIND
FLOW LATER ON FRIDAY. A SHALLOW BAND OF MOISTURE FROM THE FRONTAL
REMNANTS COULD PRODUCE HIGHER SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE CENTRAL
PORTION OF THE STATE DURING THE WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
WINDWARD SECTIONS...THOUGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AS
RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE STABLE.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL SETTLE BACK OVER THE STATE SUNDAY AND
REMAIN NEARBY ON MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF THE DRY AND STABLE
LAND AND SEA BREEZE PATTERN. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL IS FORECAST
TO MOVE THROUGH ON TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT IT APPEARS THAT
MOISTURE WILL BE QUITE LIMITED ALONG THIS FRONT. MODELS THEN
FINALLY BRING GENTLE TO MODERATE TRADE WINDS BACK TO THE STATE
FOR WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TAF SITES AND THESE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY. THERE MAY BE
SOME BRIEF MVFR OVER THE SOUTHEAST SLOPES OF THE BIG ISLAND AND
POSSIBLY OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS OF KAUAI LATER TODAY. NO AIRMETS
ARE CURRENTLY POSTED BUT THERE MAY BE SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION
LATER TONIGHT OVER PORTIONS OF KAUAI AND FRIDAY MORNING OVER
PORTIONS OF OAHU.

&&

.MARINE...
SEVERAL NORTHWEST SWELLS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
A VERY LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL WILL BUILD TONIGHT...THEN PEAK ON
FRIDAY. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS POSTED FOR NORTH AND WEST FACING
SHORES OF THE SMALLER ISLANDS FOR THE SWELL ENERGY DUE IN LATER
TODAY. THIS ADVISORY WILL BE UPGRADED TO A HIGH SURF WARNING LATER
TODAY AHEAD OF THE RAPIDLY BUILDING SWELL TONIGHT. THE STORM
GENERATING THE THIS SWELL RAPIDLY DEEPENED ON WEDNESDAY ABOUT 1200
NM NORTHWEST OF THE STATE...AND ASCAT AND RAPIDSCAT BOTH DETECTED
WINDS GREATER THAN HURRICANE FORCE WITHIN THE FETCH AIMED AT THE
ISLANDS. SURF ALONG NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES WILL PEAK WELL
ABOVE WARNING LEVELS ACROSS NORTH AND WEST FACING SHORES ON
FRIDAY. WE ARE CURRENTLY CALLING FOR SWELLS OF AROUND 17 FEET AND
18 SECONDS DURING THE PEAK...BUT IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE
SWELL CAME IN A BIT LARGER.

SOME OUT OF SEASON SOUTHERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED THIS WEEK.
SOUTHWEST SWELL FROM HURRICANE PALI WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BUT WILL BE RATHER SMALL. A SMALL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
SWELL OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS...MAINLY IN LONG PERIOD
SWELL...ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST WATERS AS THE LARGE NORTHWEST SWELL
MOVES THROUGH TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST FRIDAY FOR NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU AND MOLOKAI...AND FOR NORTH
FACING SHORES OF MAUI.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...FOSTER
AVIATION...BURKE