High Surf Advisory 5, NWS Honolulu, HI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1014 AM HST WED JAN 13 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A RATHER DRY AND STABLE LAND AND SEA BREEZE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE
INTO THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL BRING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TO
KAUAI...AND THEN OAHU ON THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING AND
DISSIPATING OVER THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. A STABLE LAND AND SEA BREEZE REGIME WILL RETURN BY LATE
SATURDAY... WITH ANOTHER WEAK FRONT EXPECTED BY NEXT TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE DAY ONCE AGAIN HAS STARTED WITH VIRTUALLY NO CLOUDS OVER THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. A RIDGE OVER THE ISLANDS...WITH LIGHT WINDS
AS A RESULT WILL CONTINUE TO ALLOW LAND AND SEA BREEZES TO SET UP
OVER THE ISLANDS FOR ANOTHER DAY. THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS
DRY...WITH THE OVERNIGHT SOUNDING FROM HILO HAVING 0.86 INCHES OF
PRECIPITABLE WATER /PW/ AND LIHUE HAVING 1.00 INCHES. EXPECT SOME
CLOUDS TO FORM OVER THE ISLANDS TODAY...WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS.

NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY. A WEAK FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE STALLING NEAR THE
CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE ON FRIDAY. EXPECT MODEST RAINFALL TO
BE FOCUSED ALONG NORTH FACING SLOPES AS THE FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
WE COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF MODERATE NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS
BEHIND THE FRONT...GIVING WAY TO A WEAK TRADE WIND FLOW ON FRIDAY.
A SHALLOW BAND OF MOISTURE FROM THE STALLED AND DISSIPATED FRONT
COULD PRODUCE HIGHER SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE
STATE DURING THE WEEKEND...THOUGH RAINFALL WILL BE LIGHT AS
RIDGING ALOFT WILL KEEP THE ATMOSPHERE STABLE.

THE SURFACE RIDGE WILL MOVE BACK OVER THE ISLANDS LATE SUNDAY OR
MONDAY...BRINGING A RETURN OF A RATHER STABLE LAND AND SEA BREEZE
PATTERN. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH NEXT TUESDAY...THOUGH
EARLY INDICATIONS ARE THAT MOISTURE WILL BE LACKING WITH THIS
FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...
VERY WEAK RIDGE LYING ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH TONIGHT. A FRONT
NEARING FROM THE NW WILL NUDGE THE RIDGE JUST E OF THE STATE LATE
THURSDAY. BUT OVERALL...WINDS WILL REMAIN VERY LIGHT...WITH LAND AND
SEA BREEZES PREVAILING. CLOUDS REMAIN SPARSE AROUND THE STATE THOUGH
LIHUE AND HILO SOUNDINGS INDICATE A BIT MORE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN
THE ATMOSPHERE. EXPECT SOME BUILD UPS IN THE AFTERNOONS WITH
CLEARING IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT IN MOST AREAS.

THE FRONT NOT EXPECTED TO REACH THE ISLANDS TIL THURSDAY
NIGHT/FRIDAY TIME FRAME. SO MORE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS EXPECTED THEN.

&&

.MARINE...
A SERIES OF NORTHWEST SWELL WILL CONTINUE TO ARRIVE IN THE ISLANDS
THIS WEEK. THE CURRENT SWELL CONTINUES TO BE ON THE DECLINE.
ANOTHER SWELL IS EXPECTED TO ARRIVE THURSDAY...AND COULD BRING
ADVISORY LEVEL SURF TO THE ISLANDS. A MUCH LARGE SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO PEAK WELL ABOVE WARNING LEVELS ON FRIDAY AND REMAIN
ELEVATED THROUGH SATURDAY.

SOME OUT OF SEASON SOUTHERLY SWELL IS EXPECTED THIS WEAK.
SOUTHWEST SWELL FROM HURRICANE PALI WILL PERSIST FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS BUT WILL BE RATHER SMALL. A SMALL SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
SWELL OUT OF THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.

THE UPCOMING NORTHWEST SWELL WILL LIKELY BRING SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES FOR SEAS IN THE AREAS EXPOSED TO THE SWELLS.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

DISCUSSION/MARINE...M BALLARD
AVIATION...FUJII