High Surf Advisory 1, NWS Honolulu, HI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
1020 AM HST SUN JAN 3 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS AND DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL TODAY...
ALTHOUGH PERIODS OF CLOUDINESS CAN BE EXPECTED...MAINLY OVER
WINDWARD AREAS. TRADE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN TONIGHT AND
MONDAY...AND BECOME LOCALLY BREEZY ON TUESDAY. A FRONT APPROACHING
THE ISLANDS FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL WEAKEN AS IT NEARS THE ISLANDS
TONIGHT AND MONDAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISSIPATING FRONT WILL BRING AN INCREASE IN WINDWARD SHOWERS...
MAINLY TO KAUAI AND OAHU...FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AND WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY...WITH
LIGHT WINDS PREVAILING INTO NEXT WEEKEND. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT MAY
BRING INCREASED SHOWERS TO KAUAI AND OAHU BY THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
BROKEN TO OVERCAST STABLE LOW CLOUDS...NO MORE THAN 1 TO 2 THOUSAND
FEET THICK...PREVAIL OVER MANY AREAS OF THE STATE THIS MORNING...
AND ARE CURRENTLY THICKEST OVER KAUAI AND OAHU AND ADJACENT WATERS.
LIKE YESTERDAY...EXPECT THAT MUCH OF THESE STABLE LOW CLOUDS WILL
MIX OUT DURING THE DAY TODAY...WHILE THE LIGHT LARGE SCALE WINDS MAY
ALLOW A FEW LEEWARD CLOUDS TO DEVELOP TODAY. SURFACE ANALYSIS
DEPICTS A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS JUST N OF THE ISLANDS...WITH
LIGHT SYNOPTIC-SCALE E WINDS YIELDING TO ISLAND-SCALE LAND AND SEA
BREEZES. A COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE NW HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...
WITH THE LEADING EDGE CURRENTLY LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES NW OF KAUAI.
ALOFT...AN E-W ORIENTED MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS JUST S OF THE
ISLANDS...AND IS PROVIDING VERY STABLE CONDITIONS TO THE CHAIN...
WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT...CONFIRMED BY THE 12Z HILO/LIHUE SOUNDINGS
WHICH MEASURED PWATS AROUND 0.7 INCHES.

TONIGHT INTO MONDAY...THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE NW HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS WILL BECOME DIFFUSE AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE BEFORE REACHING
KAUAI...BUT THE LINGERING MOISTURE AXIS WILL BECOME E-W ORIENTED
JUST N OF KAUAI. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING E TO THE N OF THIS FRONT
WILL CAUSE INCREASING TRADE WINDS OVER THE STATE THROUGH TUESDAY...
AND RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM THE FRONTAL REMNANTS IS NOW EXPECTED TO
BRING AN INCREASE IN TRADE SHOWERS OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA
AREAS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS KAUAI AND OAHU FROM MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. WORTH POINTING OUT THAT FORECAST MODELS HAVE BEEN
TRENDING WETTER FOR KAUAI AND OAHU OVER THE PAST DAY OR SO...WITH
LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATING THAT MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE
DISSIPATED FRONT WILL SPREAD FARTHER TO THE S THAN PREVIOUS RUNS.

A SOMEWHAT STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL
PACIFIC ON WEDNESDAY...CAUSING LOCAL WINDS TO VEER AROUND TO THE SE.
FORECAST MODELS SHOW THIS FRONT PASSING N OF THE STATE ON
THURSDAY...WITH THE TAIL END OF THE FRONT BECOMING DIFFUSE BEFORE
REACHING KAUAI. YET ANOTHER FRONT MAY APPROACH FROM THE NW AS WE
HEAD INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IT IS UNCLEAR AT THIS POINT IF THAT
FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY REACH THE STATE EITHER. OVERALL...GENERALLY
QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE SECOND HALF OF NEXT
WEEK...WITH LIGHT WINDS...LAND AND SEA BREEZES...AND LIMITED MAINLY
LIGHT SHOWERS AS THE AIRMASS IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY DRY.

&&

.AVIATION...
STABLE LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE STATE AND
WINDWARD BIG ISLAND AND LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY.
CLOUD BASES ARE MOSTLY AROUND 3500 FEET WITH TOPS TO 5000 FEET.
THESE CLOUDS WILL PROVIDE ISOLATED MTN OBSC ALONG WINDWARD SLOPES.

NO AIRMETS ARE IN EFFECT...AND NONE ARE ANTICIPATED THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...
THE LATEST WW3 AND HIRES NEAR SHORE WAVE MODEL SOLUTIONS HAVE
INITIALIZED WELL WITH THE LATEST BUOY OBSERVATIONS AND INDICATE THE
SEAS HOLDING STEADY AT OR AROUND ADVISORY-LEVEL THROUGH THIS EVENING
BEFORE A LARGER REINFORCEMENT OUT OF THE NW FILLS IN TONIGHT AND
MONDAY. THIS NEW SWELL...FOLLOWED BY A SMALLER NW REINFORCEMENT
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...WILL LIKELY MAINTAIN ADVISORY-LEVEL
SEAS ACROSS THE MARINE AREAS THROUGH MID WEEK BEFORE EASING THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY.

WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN OUT OF THE E IN THE LIGHT TO MODERATE
RANGE OR BELOW ADVISORY LEVEL THROUGH THE EARLY PORTION OF THE WEEK
AS HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTS E AND A WEAK FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA AND
STALLS. BRIEF PERIODS WITH ADVISORY LEVEL WINDS ENHANCED BY THE
ISLAND TERRAIN CAN/T BE RULED OUT OVER THE TYPICAL WINDIER LOCATIONS
THROUGH THIS TIME. WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA.

ADVISORY LEVEL SURF WILL HOLD THROUGH THE DAY TODAY ALONG N AND W
FACING SHORES AS THE CURRENT NW SWELL GRADUALLY DIMINISHES. A NEW
SWELL EXPECTED TONIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL LIKELY GENERATE ABOVE
WARNING LEVEL SURF ALONG N AND W FACING EXPOSURES. LONG-PERIOD
FORERUNNERS ARE EXPECTED AT BUOYS 51001/51101 NW OF KAUAI LATER THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HAVE NOT YET BEEN OBSERVED. THE LATEST GUIDANCE
INDICATES THE SURF BUILDING TONIGHT AND PEAKING MONDAY ABOVE WARNING
LEVELS. ANOTHER NW SWELL...EXPECTED TO BE 8 TO 10 FEET...WILL BUILD
TUESDAY NIGHT AND PEAK WEDNESDAY...RESULTING IN ADVISORY LEVEL SURF
ALONG EXPOSED N AND W FACING SHORES. ANOTHER NW SWELL IS POSSIBLE
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT SWELLS ARE EXPECTED.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST THIS EVENING FOR NORTH AND WEST
FACING SHORES OF NIIHAU KAUAI OAHU MOLOKAI AND FOR NORTH FACING
SHORES OF MAUI.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM HST TUESDAY FOR KAUAI NORTHWEST
WATERS-KAUAI WINDWARD WATERS-KAUAI LEEWARD WATERS-KAUAI CHANNEL-
OAHU WINDWARD WATERS-OAHU LEEWARD WATERS-KAIWI CHANNEL-MAUI
COUNTY WINDWARD WATERS-ALENUIHAHA CHANNEL-BIG ISLAND WINDWARD
WATERS.

&&

SYNOPSIS...BIRCHARD
DISCUSSION...BIRCHARD/JACOBSON
MARINE...BIRCHARD/GIBBS
AVIATION...FOSTER