Alert archive / New Hampshire / Wind Advisories in 2016
Wind Advisory 12, NWS Gray, ME
NWS Gray, ME issued this wind advisory at Dec 15, 2016, 10:00 AM EST for 9 counties in New Hampshire; Cumberland County, York County, Maine. It took effect at Dec 15, 2016, 12:00 PM EST. It was in force for 12 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Dec 15, 2016, 10:00 AM EST (15:00 UTC)
- In effect from
- Dec 15, 2016, 12:00 PM EST
- Expired
- Dec 16, 2016, 12:09 AM EST
- In force
- 12 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Gray, ME
Counties Cumberland County, ME, York County, ME, Belknap County, NH, Carroll County, NH, Cheshire County, NH, Grafton County, NH, Hillsborough County, NH, Merrimack County, NH, Rockingham County, NH, Strafford County, NH, Sullivan County, NH
The radar
The Portland,ME radar (KGYX), 108 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 15:01 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Gray, ME (KGYX), launched 12:00Z, 3.0 hours before the alert went out and 107 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1096 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 82 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -56 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 106 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
075 WWUS71 KGYX 151500 NPWGYX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1000 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016 ...STRONG WINDS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINE... .A SERIES OF STRONG ARCTIC COLD FRONTS WILL PUSH THROUGH THE REGION THIS TODAY AND TONIGHT...YIELDING MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF STRONG WINDS. THE FIRST WILL BE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A SECOND SURGE OF WINDS LATE THIS EVENING. NHZ011>015-152300- /O.UPG.KGYX.HW.A.0004.161215T2300Z-161216T0600Z/ /O.NEW.KGYX.WI.Y.0012.161215T1700Z-161216T0600Z/ CHESHIRE-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM- COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GILSUM...KEENE...MARLOW...SULLIVAN... SURRY...JAFFREY...MANCHESTER...PELHAM...NASHUA...SALEM... ATKINSON...NEWTON...PLAISTOW...CHESTER...DERRY...HAMPSTEAD... EXETER...GREENLAND...PORTSMOUTH...RYE...HAMPTON...HAMPTON FALLS... NORTH HAMPTON...SEABROOK...AMHERST...MILFORD...MONT VERNON... GOFFSTOWN...PETERBOROUGH...SHARON...HOLLIS...WEARE 1000 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY... WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY. THE HIGH WIND WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * WINDS...WEST WINDS 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH. * TIMING...WINDS STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING. * IMPACTS...THERE MAY BE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES DUE TO DOWNED TREE LIMBS. HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES MAY EXPERIENCE DIFFICULTY DRIVING ON THE NORTH-SOUTH HIGHWAYS. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO LEAD TO BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH...OR WIND GUSTS UP TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. && $$ MEZ018-019-023-024-NHZ005>010-152300- /O.NEW.KGYX.WI.Y.0012.161215T1700Z-161216T0600Z/ INTERIOR YORK-INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND- SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP- STRAFFORD- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOLLIS...ALFRED...LEBANON...SANFORD... GOODWINS MILLS...BUXTON...LIMINGTON...BERWICK...NEW GLOUCESTER... GRAY...NORTH WINDHAM...GORHAM...BRIDGTON...BIDDEFORD...SACO... OLD ORCHARD BEACH...KITTERY...PORTLAND...CAPE ELIZABETH... SOUTH PORTLAND...WESTBROOK...YARMOUTH...BRUNSWICK...LYME... ASHLAND...ELLSWORTH...HOLDERNESS...PLYMOUTH...RUMNEY... WAKEFIELD...BRIDGEWATER...BROOKFIELD...OSSIPEE...TUFTONBORO... WOLFEBORO...MOULTONBOROUGH...CLAREMONT...CORNISH...UNITY... CROYDON...GOSHEN...GRANTHAM...LEMPSTER...NEWPORT...CHARLESTOWN... BOSCAWEN...CANTERBURY...CONCORD...DUNBARTON...LOUDON...HOOKSETT... LACONIA...GILFORD...MEREDITH...BARRINGTON...ROCHESTER...DOVER... ROLLINSFORD...SOMERSWORTH...DURHAM...MADBURY 1000 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY... WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY. * WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. * TIMING...WINDS STRENGTHEN THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG WIND GUSTS EXPECTED LATE THIS EVENING. * IMPACTS...THERE MAY BE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES DUE TO DOWNED TREE LIMBS. HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES MAY EXPERIENCE DIFFICULTY DRIVING ON THE NORTH-SOUTH HIGHWAYS. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO LEAD TO BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH...OR WIND GUSTS UP TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. && $$ ARNOTT
3 follow-up statements
061 WWUS71 KGYX 151944 NPWGYX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 244 PM EST THU DEC 15 2016 ...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINE... .THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON IS ARRIVING THROUGH THIS EVENING AS A SERIES OF STRONG COLD FRONTS MOVE THROUGH THE REGION. THIS WILL BRING CONTINUED STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. MEZ018-019-023-024-NHZ005>015-160345- /O.CON.KGYX.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-161216T0600Z/ INTERIOR YORK-INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND- SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP- STRAFFORD-CHESHIRE-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM- COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOLLIS...ALFRED...LEBANON...SANFORD... GOODWINS MILLS...BUXTON...LIMINGTON...BERWICK...NEW GLOUCESTER... GRAY...NORTH WINDHAM...GORHAM...BRIDGTON...BIDDEFORD...SACO... OLD ORCHARD BEACH...KITTERY...PORTLAND...CAPE ELIZABETH... SOUTH PORTLAND...WESTBROOK...YARMOUTH...BRUNSWICK...LYME... ASHLAND...ELLSWORTH...HOLDERNESS...PLYMOUTH...RUMNEY... WAKEFIELD...BRIDGEWATER...BROOKFIELD...OSSIPEE...TUFTONBORO... WOLFEBORO...MOULTONBOROUGH...CLAREMONT...CORNISH...UNITY... CROYDON...GOSHEN...GRANTHAM...LEMPSTER...NEWPORT...CHARLESTOWN... BOSCAWEN...CANTERBURY...CONCORD...DUNBARTON...LOUDON...HOOKSETT... LACONIA...GILFORD...MEREDITH...BARRINGTON...ROCHESTER...DOVER... ROLLINSFORD...SOMERSWORTH...DURHAM...MADBURY...GILSUM...KEENE... MARLOW...SULLIVAN...SURRY...JAFFREY...MANCHESTER...PELHAM... NASHUA...SALEM...ATKINSON...NEWTON...PLAISTOW...CHESTER...DERRY... HAMPSTEAD...EXETER...GREENLAND...PORTSMOUTH...RYE...HAMPTON... HAMPTON FALLS...NORTH HAMPTON...SEABROOK...AMHERST...MILFORD... MONT VERNON...GOFFSTOWN...PETERBOROUGH...SHARON...WEARE 244 PM EST THU DEC 15 2016 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY... * WINDS...WEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS 45 TO 50 MPH. * TIMING...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT. * IMPACTS...THERE MAY BE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES DUE TO DOWNED TREE LIMBS. HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES MAY EXPERIENCE DIFFICULTY DRIVING ON THE NORTH-SOUTH HIGHWAYS. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO LEAD TO BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH...OR WIND GUSTS UP TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. && $$ ARNOTT
977 WWUS71 KGYX 160303 NPWGYX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1003 PM EST THU DEC 15 2016 ...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHWESTERN MAINE... MEZ018-019-023-024-NHZ005>015-160600- /O.CON.KGYX.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-161216T0600Z/ INTERIOR YORK-INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND- SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP- STRAFFORD-CHESHIRE-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM- COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOLLIS...ALFRED...LEBANON...SANFORD... GOODWINS MILLS...BUXTON...LIMINGTON...BERWICK...NEW GLOUCESTER... GRAY...NORTH WINDHAM...GORHAM...BRIDGTON...BIDDEFORD...SACO... OLD ORCHARD BEACH...KITTERY...PORTLAND...CAPE ELIZABETH... SOUTH PORTLAND...WESTBROOK...YARMOUTH...BRUNSWICK...LYME... ASHLAND...ELLSWORTH...HOLDERNESS...PLYMOUTH...RUMNEY... WAKEFIELD...BRIDGEWATER...BROOKFIELD...OSSIPEE...TUFTONBORO... WOLFEBORO...MOULTONBOROUGH...CLAREMONT...CORNISH...UNITY... CROYDON...GOSHEN...GRANTHAM...LEMPSTER...NEWPORT...CHARLESTOWN... BOSCAWEN...CANTERBURY...CONCORD...DUNBARTON...LOUDON...HOOKSETT... LACONIA...GILFORD...MEREDITH...BARRINGTON...ROCHESTER...DOVER... ROLLINSFORD...SOMERSWORTH...DURHAM...MADBURY...GILSUM...KEENE... MARLOW...SULLIVAN...SURRY...JAFFREY...MANCHESTER...PELHAM... NASHUA...SALEM...ATKINSON...NEWTON...PLAISTOW...CHESTER...DERRY... HAMPSTEAD...EXETER...GREENLAND...PORTSMOUTH...RYE...HAMPTON... HAMPTON FALLS...NORTH HAMPTON...SEABROOK...AMHERST...MILFORD... MONT VERNON...GOFFSTOWN...PETERBOROUGH...SHARON...WEARE 1003 PM EST THU DEC 15 2016 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM EST FRIDAY... * WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH. * TIMING...STRONG WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS BEFORE WEAKENING AFTER MIDNIGHT. * IMPACTS...THERE MAY BE SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES DUE TO DOWNED TREE LIMBS. HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES MAY EXPERIENCE DIFFICULTY DRIVING ON THE NORTH-SOUTH HIGHWAYS. VERY COLD TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO LEAD TO BITTERLY COLD WIND CHILLS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT SUSTAINED WINDS OF 35 MPH...OR WIND GUSTS UP TO 57 MPH...ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. && $$
829 WWUS71 KGYX 160509 NPWGYX URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 1209 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2016 MEZ018-019-023-024-NHZ005>015-160615- /O.CAN.KGYX.WI.Y.0012.000000T0000Z-161216T0600Z/ INTERIOR YORK-INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND- SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP- STRAFFORD-CHESHIRE-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM- COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOLLIS...ALFRED...LEBANON...SANFORD... GOODWINS MILLS...BUXTON...LIMINGTON...BERWICK...NEW GLOUCESTER... GRAY...NORTH WINDHAM...GORHAM...BRIDGTON...BIDDEFORD...SACO... OLD ORCHARD BEACH...KITTERY...PORTLAND...CAPE ELIZABETH... SOUTH PORTLAND...WESTBROOK...YARMOUTH...BRUNSWICK...LYME... ASHLAND...ELLSWORTH...HOLDERNESS...PLYMOUTH...RUMNEY... WAKEFIELD...BRIDGEWATER...BROOKFIELD...OSSIPEE...TUFTONBORO... WOLFEBORO...MOULTONBOROUGH...CLAREMONT...CORNISH...UNITY... CROYDON...GOSHEN...GRANTHAM...LEMPSTER...NEWPORT...CHARLESTOWN... BOSCAWEN...CANTERBURY...CONCORD...DUNBARTON...LOUDON...HOOKSETT... LACONIA...GILFORD...MEREDITH...BARRINGTON...ROCHESTER...DOVER... ROLLINSFORD...SOMERSWORTH...DURHAM...MADBURY...GILSUM...KEENE... MARLOW...SULLIVAN...SURRY...JAFFREY...MANCHESTER...PELHAM... NASHUA...SALEM...ATKINSON...NEWTON...PLAISTOW...CHESTER...DERRY... HAMPSTEAD...EXETER...GREENLAND...PORTSMOUTH...RYE...HAMPTON... HAMPTON FALLS...NORTH HAMPTON...SEABROOK...AMHERST...MILFORD... MONT VERNON...GOFFSTOWN...PETERBOROUGH...SHARON...WEARE 1209 AM EST FRI DEC 16 2016 ...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY HAS CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY. WHILE WINDS HAVE DROPPED BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS THE AREA, WE'LL CONTINUE TO SEE OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO NEAR 40 MPH OVERNIGHT. $$ ES
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Gray, ME wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Dec 15, 9:03 AM EST, 57 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Dec 15, 9:03 AM EST, 57 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
903 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A strong arctic cold front moves across the region today with
temperatures falling throughout the day. By tonight, frigid
arctic air combined with gusty winds will cause dangerously cold
wind chills. On Friday, Arctic high pressure settles over the
area. By Friday night and Saturday, the center of high pressure
moves offshore. This will allow an approaching disturbance to
circulate a warm moist flow over the cold dome at the surface,
producing some accumulating snow late Friday night and Saturday.
By Saturday night, the snow will change to mixed precipitation
and even freezing rain over many areas. By Sunday, the warm air
mass will finally win allowing much of the precipitation to change
to rain, except a mix continuing in the mountains. Finally, a
cold front sweeps through by Monday with a return to colder air
but clearing conditions.
&&
.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
901 AM Update: Update to match early morning trends and also track
band of snow shower/squall activity that is sinking south across
central NH/southwestern ME. Attention then turns to winds. Have
boosted these for the afternoon and will shortly make a final
decision on how to handle inherited high wind watch. Some gusts
over 40 mph possible southern NH/southwestern Maine behind first
boundary this afternoon...with interesting setup tonight along the
arctic front with deep instability and continued strong flow
aloft.
Update...Minor changes based on latest observational trends. NW
flow is really kicking in now to our NW...and lake effect snow
showers will increasingly be pushed towards our forecast area. I
have increased the PoP across NH to cover this.
Previous discussion...A strong cold front is just edging into the
forecast area at this hour this morning. As it drops SEwd it is
collecting the lake effect bands off Lakes Ontario and Erie. These
snow showers will entrain into the front and impact mainly NH and
far Wrn ME this morning. The forcing is adequate and the CAA will
make the atmosphere unstable enough that these could be locally
squally in nature...with quick changes in visibility.
The more notable part of the day will be winds and temps. A few
isolated locations have managed to decouple overnight and dropped
into the single digits...but for many of us current temps are
going to be pretty close to our high temps for the day. With
strong CAA expected behind this front...we should only see a small
rise in temps early...with steady and slowing falling readings
thru the rest of the afternoon. This is supported by hi-res
ensemble guidance...so I have shown a non-diurnal temp trend into
the afternoon.
As for winds...behind the initial cold front as CAA develops we
should see a surge of stronger winds by midday. Based on forecast
soundings these should generally be in the 30 to 35 kt range...but
will be a noticeable step up from the background wind gusts during
the day.
&&
.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/...
Unfortunately...or fortunately if you are so inclined...today is
just the appetizer for the main course this evening and tonight. A
powerful Arctic front will drive across the Northeast bringing all
sorts of hazards to the region. I will discuss each further in
order of confidence below.
One thing we are sure of is frigid temps arriving behind the
Arctic boundary. Model guidance actually ticked colder with the
15.00z suite. Now forecast anomalies are in excess of 3 standard
deviation below normal at H8. A widespread region of 25 below
temps at H8 is forecast...with a mean of less than 30 below for
parts of the Wrn ME mtns. Temps will steadily fall
overnight...dropping into the single digits for all...and well
below zero in the far N. Combined with sustained winds continuing
overnight in at least the 15 to 20 kt range...dangerously cold
wind chills will develop. In the mtns where temps will be the
coldest...wind chill warnings remain in effect. Farther S and all
the way to the coast wind chill advisories have replaced the wind
chill watch. I have delayed the start time of the SErn NH and
coastal SWrn ME zones until after midnight when wind chills dip
towards 20 below. Those zones are also the most uncertain about
reaching criteria...but given that this is a significantly cold
air mass and really our first of the season I hedged towards the
headline.
Next up is the snow shower activity along the Arctic front. This
is sharp front and low level forcing should be quite strong as
cold air pours in behind it. With steep low level lapse rates
thanks to the CAA...the low levels will be unstable enough for
convective elements. Whatever moisture is left in the boundary
layer will support the snow showers along the leading edge of the
cold air. Hi-res model guidance shows a line of precip crossing
the forecast area this evening. And BTV WRF forecasts of the snow
squall parameter are quite high with this second boundary. I
expect that these will be the strongest snow squalls of the day.
With very cold temps aloft and strong winds...the poor ratio
snowfall and fine flakes will likely lead to near white out
conditions in the strongest squalls. I have added heavy snowfall
wording to the grids for the areas most at risk this evening based
on mesoscale model guidance and climatologically favored zones. It
is more likely than not that we will have to handle those with
SPSs later in the day.
Finally strong winds continue to be a concern into the overnight.
15.00z model guidance remains consistent on a significant
potential vorticity anomaly crossing the Northeast this evening.
With tropopause pressures forecast to be down around H7...it may
be just close enough to the surface that strong CAA helps us to
mix to near this level. This will be aided by a strong fall/rise
couplet that is forecast to track across Srn NH with the front.
Forecast soundings and hi-res guidance suggest mixing down 50 kt
wind gusts is possible in this scenario. I have issued a high wind
watch to highlight the greatest threat area for the damaging wind
gusts. Farther N and E wind advisories may be needed overnight
too...but uncertainty was too high at this time and a high wind
watch seemed too much. The day shift will be able to get a closer
look at the latest guidance before making that final decision.
On Fri high pressure continues to build in...settling over the
region by late afternoon. Winds will gradually decrease thru the
day. But most notably will be the continued cold. With the core of
the anomalous temps aloft sitting overhead and shallow mixing due
to high pressure subsidence...afternoon max temps will only top
out in the teens at best. The Nrn zones thru the mtns will only
see readings in the single digits. High temps were a blend of
guidance that matched closely the mixed down temps from H9. Given
the magnitude of the cold these will easily be the coldest daytime
temps since last Feb...and could challenge some daily record cold
max temps.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Models are in decent agreement on the longwave pattern through
the middle of next week. We begin the period with a digging trough
over the western third of the CONUS and broad westerly flow
downstream across the remainder of the CONUS. Surface high
pressure is draped along the coast of the mid Atlantic and New
England region Friday evening...and quickly retreats offshore in
the nearly zonal flow aloft. The return flow around the high and
warm air advection will yield increasing clouds and a chance of
snow towards dawn. On Saturday...models agree on a deep upper
trough over the central CONUS with low pressure riding northward
through the eastern Great Lakes. A warm front will extend eastward
through the mid atlantic region with overrunning precipitation
across our region. The column will be cold enough for snow...and
with snowpack and cold air damming the snow will be slow to transition
to liquid...especially away from the coast. Not surprisingly...the
models have trended colder with this system over the past several
runs with more of the precipitation likely to be frozen and freezing
versus liquid for the forecast area. The surface low will track
down the Saint Lawrence Valley Saturday night/early Sunday with
warm front hanging up across Northern New Hampshire into central
Maine with trailing cold front sweeping across the area Sunday
afternoon. The mountains and our northern and western Maine zones
will see a wintry mix with only southern New Hampshire into
adjacent southwest Maine and coastal areas likely to warm
sufficiently to see a changeover to plain rain Saturday night into
Sunday before colder air floods in behind the cold front. In the
wake of this storm system...We're left with a deep trough over
much of the CONUS with arctic high pressure and much below normal
temperatures to begin the new work week.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Short Term...This morning there are two areas of IFR VSBYs in -SN
and SHSN. One is with SW flow ahead of the approaching cold
front...sending -SN into the Midcoast. RKD will see a couple hours
of occasional IFR before this moves out. The second area is with
lake enhanced snow showers sweeping SEwd with the cold front thru
the morning. HIE will see occasional IFR in SHSN...and farther S
there will be more uncertainty as to whether SHSN maintain. LEB
would be more likely than the rest of the terminals to see IFR
VSBYs. There will also be two bursts of stronger wind gusts today
and this evening. Surface wind gusts to 30 or 35 kts are possible
this afternoon behind the first cold front at all terminals. Then
a window of even stronger wind gusts are possible late this
evening behind the Arctic front. Uncertainty is higher with the
second front...but at the very least more 30 to 35 kt wind gusts
are expected. With the Arctic front will also come another round
of SHSN. These could be +SHSN with 1/2SM or less VSBY at times.
Duration will be brief however and they will be more convective in
nature...so there is no guarantee they will impact the terminals
directly.
Long Term...
Sat...widespread IFR in snow and sleet...mixing with
rain during the late afternoon along the coast.
Sat night - Sun...widespread IFR in RA/freezing rain/sleet/and
snow.
&&
.MARINE...
Short Term...Storm watches have been converted to storm
warnings...as strong NW winds are forecast to increase sharply
late this afternoon and evening. Gale warnings remain in effect
for the bays. Winds and seas will gradually diminish on Fri...as
high pressure moves over the area. The very cold air mass moving
into the region will also mean snow squalls on the
waters...especially the outer waters. Rapidly changing visibility
is likely.
Long Term...
Sat...Gale force winds are possible.
Sun...Gale force winds are possible...with gusts approaching
storm outside the bays.
&&
.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...Wind Chill Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Friday
for MEZ018>022-025>028.
Wind Chill Warning from 9 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Friday
for MEZ007>009-012>014.
Wind Chill Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for MEZ023-
024.
NH...Wind Chill Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 9 AM EST Friday
for NHZ005>011-015.
Wind Chill Warning from 9 PM this evening to 11 AM EST Friday
for NHZ001>004.
High Wind Watch from 6 PM EST this evening through late
tonight for NHZ011>015.
Wind Chill Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EST Friday for
NHZ012>014.
MARINE...Gale Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 1 PM EST Friday for
ANZ151-153.
Storm Warning from 3 PM this afternoon to 7 AM EST Friday for
ANZ150-152-154.
&&
SYNOPSIS...
NEAR TERM...
SHORT TERM...
LONG TERM...
AVIATION...
MARINE...Hazardous weather outlook, Dec 15, 3:36 AM EST, 6 hours 24 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME 336 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016 NHZ011-015-160845- CHESHIRE-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH- 336 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NEW HAMPSHIRE AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. HIGH WIND WATCH. WIND CHILL ADVISORY. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH 50 MPH THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WIND CHILL ADVISORY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA SATURDAY, GRADUALLY TURNING TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MEZ018>022-025>028-NHZ005>010-160845- INTERIOR YORK-INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC- INTERIOR WALDO-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-SOUTHERN GRAFTON- SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD- 336 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MAINE...SOUTH CENTRAL MAINE...SOUTHWEST MAINE...CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WIND CHILL ADVISORY. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH 40 MPH THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WIND CHILL ADVISORY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA SATURDAY, GRADUALLY TURNING TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MEZ007>009-012>014-NHZ001>004-160845- NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD- SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS- NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL- 336 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016 ...WIND CHILL WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM EST FRIDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL MAINE...WEST CENTRAL MAINE...WESTERN MAINE AND NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WIND CHILL WARNING. ISOLATED SNOW SQUALLS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT AS AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH 40 MPH THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WIND CHILL WARNING. A STORM SYSTEM WILL LIKELY BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. NHZ012>014-160845- EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM- 336 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE TONIGHT... ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. HIGH WIND WATCH. WIND CHILL ADVISORY. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH 50 MPH THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WIND CHILL ADVISORY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA SATURDAY, GRADUALLY TURNING TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. MEZ023-024-160845- COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND- 336 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016 ...WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EST FRIDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST MAINE. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WIND CHILL ADVISORY. WIND GUSTS COULD APPROACH 40 MPH THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. WIND CHILL ADVISORY. A STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW AND MIXED PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA SATURDAY, GRADUALLY TURNING TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH, LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ANZ151-153-160845- PENOBSCOT BAY-CASCO BAY- 336 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016 ...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 PM EST FRIDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. GALE WARNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. GALE WARNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ANZ150-152-154-160845- COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON, ME TO PORT CLYDE, ME OUT 25 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE, ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH, ME OUT 25 NM- COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH, ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER, MA OUT 25 NM- 336 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016 ...STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 3 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST FRIDAY... THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. STORM WARNING. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS. STORM WARNING. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ES
In the hours before
Special weather statement, Dec 15, 5:54 AM EST, 4 hours 6 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
554 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016
MEZ012-013-019>021-NHZ002>004-151145-
Androscoggin-Interior Cumberland-Kennebec-Southern Franklin-Southern
Oxford-Southern Coos-Northern Carroll-Northern Grafton-
554 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016
...A SNOW SQUALL WILL AFFECT SOUTHEASTERN FRANKLIN...WEST CENTRAL
KENNEBEC...SOUTHERN OXFORD...ANDROSCOGGIN...NORTHWESTERN
CUMBERLAND...NORTHEASTERN GRAFTON...NORTHEASTERN CARROLL AND SOUTHERN
COOS COUNTIES...
At 553 AM EST, a snow squall was located along a line extending from
near Wilton to near Canton to near Waterford to near Fryeburg to 10
miles north of Tamworth. Movement was southeast at 20 mph.
Locations impacted include...
Lewiston, Conway, Farmington, Bridgton, Fryeburg, Mechanic Falls,
Naples, Turner, Oakland, Rumford, Jay, Belgrade, Livermore Falls,
Manchester, Dixfield, Hiram, Canton, Waterford, Wilton and Winthrop.
Visibilities could drop quickly to less than a quarter of a mile in
this squall.
Use extra caution if you must travel into or through this dangerous
snow squall. Rapid changes in visibility and potentially slick roads
are likely to lead to accidents. Consider delaying travel until the
squall passes your location.
LAT...LON 4421 7001 4403 7028 4388 7056 4385 7099
4394 7100 4393 7116 4409 7138 4416 7105
4431 7076 4451 7051 4466 7038 4454 6974
TIME...MOT...LOC 1053Z 307DEG 16KT 4463 7023 4443 7040 4425 7067 4410
7094 4400 7133
LegroLocal storm report, Dec 15, 8:11 AM EST, 1 hour 49 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
811 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0754 AM SNOW FIRST CONNECTICUT LAKE 45.09N 71.29W
12/12/2016 M3.0 INCH COOS NH COOP 2
DELAYED REPORT
&&
EVENT NUMBER GYX1603111
TFHLocal storm report, Dec 15, 8:19 AM EST, 1 hour 41 minutes before
PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
819 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016
..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...
..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
..REMARKS..
0816 AM SNOW 6 ENE FIRST CONNECTICUT 45.14N 71.18W
12/12/2016 M3.5 INCH COOS NH TRAINED SPOTTER
DELAYED REPORT
&&
EVENT NUMBER GYX1603112
TFHSpecial weather statement, Dec 15, 8:30 AM EST, 1 hour 30 minutes before
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Gray ME
830 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016
MEZ012-018-019-024-NHZ004>009-151430-
Interior Cumberland-Southern Oxford-Interior York-Coastal
Cumberland-Southern Carroll-Merrimack-Northern Carroll-Southern
Grafton-Sullivan-Belknap-
830 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016
...SNOW SQUALLS WILL AFFECT SOUTHWESTERN OXFORD...YORK...
CUMBERLAND...SOUTHWESTERN ANDROSCOGGIN...NORTHERN HILLSBOROUGH...
SOUTHERN CARROLL...MERRIMACK...NORTHWESTERN ROCKINGHAM...SOUTHERN
GRAFTON...NORTHERN STRAFFORD...NORTHERN CHESHIRE...BELKNAP AND
SULLIVAN COUNTIES...
At 828 AM EST, snow showers and squalls was located along a line
extending from near Bridgton to Lebanon. Movement was southeast at
15 mph.
As these snow showers and squalls move through the
region...visibilities may drop below one half mile with a quick
coating of snow. Motorists are encouraged to use extra caution when
traveling this morning. Additional snow squalls are possible this
afternoon and evening.
Locations impacted include...
Manchester, Concord, Auburn, Biddeford, Laconia, Westbrook,
Claremont, Lebanon, Conway, Franklin, Bridgton, Henniker, Fryeburg,
Alfred, Moultonborough, Ossipee, Plymouth, Meredith, New London and
Naples.
LAT...LON 4364 7232 4403 7078 4404 7082 4406 7086
4417 7063 4402 7058 4404 7032 4391 7012
4323 7081 4338 7099 4364 7097 4357 7124
4336 7116 4301 7140 4305 7164 4315 7167
4312 7186 4321 7191 4313 7204 4316 7245
TIME...MOT...LOC 1328Z 307DEG 11KT 4400 7077 4363 7225
ArnottThe office that day
Everything else NWS Gray, ME issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 15, 3:12 AM EST | High Wind Watch | GYX | Cheshire, Hillsborough, Rockingham | 7 hr |
| Dec 15, 3:22 AM EST | Wind Chill Advisory | GYX | Belknap, Carroll, Cheshire, Grafton, Hillsborough, Merrimack and 3 more | 30 hr |
| Dec 15, 8:30 AM EST | Special Weather Statement | GYX | Belknap, Carroll, Merrimack, Sullivan | 60 min |
| Dec 15, 10:07 AM EST | Coastal Flood Advisory | GYX | Rockingham | 2 hr |
| Dec 15, 10:37 AM EST | Special Weather Statement | GYX | Belknap, Carroll, Coos, Grafton | 23 min |
| Dec 15, 11:08 AM EST | Special Weather Statement | GYX | Belknap, Carroll, Merrimack, Sullivan | 52 min |
| Dec 15, 11:52 AM EST | Special Weather Statement | GYX | Cheshire, Hillsborough, Rockingham, Strafford | 53 min |
| Dec 15, 2:58 AM EST | Storm Warning | GYX | 32 hr | |
| Dec 15, 5:54 AM EST | Special Weather Statement | GYX | Androscoggin | 51 min |
| Dec 15, 10:21 AM EST | Special Weather Statement | GYX | York | 24 min |
Nearby
Wind Advisories in New Hampshire, 2016Wind Advisories in Maine, 2016Every wind advisory in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.