Wind Advisory 11, NWS Gray, ME

014 
WWUS71 KGYX 120057
NPWGYX

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
757 PM EST FRI NOV 11 2016

MEZ018>028-NHZ006-008>015-120200-
/O.CAN.KGYX.WI.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-161112T0100Z/
INTERIOR YORK-INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-
INTERIOR WALDO-COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-
KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-SOUTHERN CARROLL-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-
CHESHIRE-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-
COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HOLLIS...ALFRED...LEBANON...SANFORD...
GOODWINS MILLS...BUXTON...LIMINGTON...BERWICK...NEW GLOUCESTER...
GRAY...NORTH WINDHAM...GORHAM...BRIDGTON...GREENE...LEWISTON...
SABATTUS...WALES...MINOT...TURNER...AUBURN...LIVERMORE FALLS...
AUGUSTA...SIDNEY...WINDSOR...VASSALBORO...WATERVILLE...CHINA...
PALERMO...BROOKS...JACKSON...KNOX...LIBERTY...MONTVILLE...
MORRILL...WALDO...WINTERPORT...UNITY...BIDDEFORD...SACO...
OLD ORCHARD BEACH...KITTERY...PORTLAND...CAPE ELIZABETH...
SOUTH PORTLAND...WESTBROOK...YARMOUTH...BRUNSWICK...ARROWSIC...
BATH...PHIPPSBURG...BOWDOINHAM...TOPSHAM...BOWDOIN...WHITEFIELD...
DRESDEN...ALNA...BREMEN...BRISTOL...DAMARISCOTTA...NEWCASTLE...
BOOTHBAY HARBOR...WISCASSET...WALDOBORO...MATINICUS...OWLS HEAD...
ROCKLAND...APPLETON...CAMDEN...HOPE...ROCKPORT...THOMASTON...
BELFAST...NORTHPORT...SEARSMONT...LINCOLNVILLE...WAKEFIELD...
BRIDGEWATER...BROOKFIELD...OSSIPEE...TUFTONBORO...WOLFEBORO...
MOULTONBOROUGH...BOSCAWEN...CANTERBURY...CONCORD...DUNBARTON...
LOUDON...HOOKSETT...LACONIA...GILFORD...MEREDITH...BARRINGTON...
ROCHESTER...DOVER...ROLLINSFORD...SOMERSWORTH...DURHAM...
MADBURY...GILSUM...KEENE...MARLOW...SULLIVAN...SURRY...JAFFREY...
MANCHESTER...PELHAM...NASHUA...SALEM...ATKINSON...NEWTON...
PLAISTOW...CHESTER...DERRY...HAMPSTEAD...EXETER...GREENLAND...
PORTSMOUTH...RYE...HAMPTON...HAMPTON FALLS...NORTH HAMPTON...
SEABROOK...AMHERST...MILFORD...MONT VERNON...GOFFSTOWN...
PETERBOROUGH...SHARON...WEARE
757 PM EST FRI NOV 11 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GRAY HAS CANCELLED THE WIND
ADVISORY.

$$

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Gray ME
122 PM EST Fri Nov 11 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the region this morning, bringing colder
air and gusty winds this afternoon into Saturday. The cold air
will not last long, as warm air from the middle of the country
spills into New England again later this weekend and into early
next week. Low Pressure may bring unsettled conditions midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY/...
130PM UPDATE... Cold advection instability snow showers have been
observed in the mountains and are visible on radar. This activity
is largely being generated due to cold advection aloft, though it
has tended to get squashed by the downsloping winds south of the
mountains thus far. Have updated the forecast to put more emphasis
on these snow showers as we have had a report of some heavier
bursts of snow. Accumulations should be minor.

1230PM UPDATE... Temperatures have reached their highs across the
area already, with temperatures falling even on the coastal plain
at this point. North of the mountains, temperatures have fallen
into the 30s with snow showers reported. Have updated the forecast
to reflect these conditions. Still expect wind speeds to remain
significantly below advisory levels, with speeds likely near their
peak at this time.

930AM UPDATE... Have made some minor adjustments to winds and
temperatures today. Cold front is moving toward the coast now,
with winds right behind the front gusting to around 30KT (35 MPH).
Expect the strongest winds to be right behind the front, with
gusts leveling off through the rest of the day. Downsloping winds
will allow temperatures in the 50s downwind of the mountains
today, while temperatures drop north of the mountains. Could see
some temperature drops this afternoon south of the mountains as
well. Gusts should remain well below advisory levels, though.

620 AM UPDATE... No major changes to the forecast. Showers are
entering the north as a cold front crosses the region. Have
adjusted PoPs and weather grids based on latest mesoanalysis.

ORIGINAL DISCUSSION...
Surface trough axis now moving through the region this morning
ahead of a cold front. Clouds are building into the area this
morning. There is a large temperature gradient across the area
with mid 20s to lower 30s across the west and north and lower 40s
across the south and east. Temperatures today should warm into the
upper 30s/lower 40s north and lower 50s south. Rain and snow
showers will develop over the mountains this morning in upslope
flow and may last through the afternoon. Strong winds will mix to
the surface and have kept the gale warning going today with 30-40
kts expected.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND SATURDAY/...
High pressure moves in overnight. Winds will remain gusty with
some clouds in the region...especially over the mountains.
Overnight lows will be quite chilly with cold air advection
bringing lower to upper 20s to the entire region. On Saturday
downsloping winds will clear out the coastal plain. High
temperatures should reach the upper 30s north to upper 40s south.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
High pressure builds across the Eastern seaboard Saturday night
through Monday allowing a broad West to Southwest flow aloft and
at the surface to develop with warmer temperatures and dry
weather. Things get interesting Tuesday as models differ on
handling of initial upper short wave over the Ohio valley that
gets ejected Northeast toward New England. Used superblend for
handling of system since it's the best guess. Euro much stronger
with initial system while other models weaker. Models differ also
for Wed/Thu timeframe on handling and depth of digging upper
systems into the Northeast. Generally will go with an unsettled
pattern in the grids for now with a broad brush since confidence
on exact timing and outcome uncertain at this time.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Short Term....Mainly VFR tonight thru Sat night. NW winds will
gust to 25-30 kts at times on today, especially around midday.

Long Term...VFR Saturday night through Tuesday.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term...Stronger NW winds pick after the front passes this
morning, with gales expected to continue through the night, before
weakening late. Winds should be limited to SCA in Casco Bay.

Long Term...Westerly winds could continue in the SCA advisory
range Saturday night, but should diminish a bit by Sunday. Low
pressure will move up the East coast during midweek.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ153.
     Gale Warning until 6 AM EST Saturday for ANZ150>152-154.

&&

NEAR TERM UPDATE...Kimble
SHORT TERM...Hanes
LONG TERM...Marine

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
352 AM EST FRI NOV 11 2016

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>022-NHZ001>013-015-120900-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-
NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-
SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-
STRAFFORD-CHESHIRE-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH-
352 AM EST FRI NOV 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MAINE...SOUTH CENTRAL
MAINE...SOUTHWEST MAINE...WEST CENTRAL MAINE...WESTERN MAINE...NEW
HAMPSHIRE...CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON REACHING AS HIGH AS
35-40 MPH. THIS MAY CAUSE ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MEZ023>028-NHZ014-120900-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-SAGADAHOC-LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-
COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
352 AM EST FRI NOV 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL
MAINE...SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A COLD FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP BY THIS AFTERNOON REACHING AS HIGH AS
35-40 MPH. THIS MAY CAUSE ISOLATED POWER OUTAGES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

THE HIGHEST ASTRONOMICAL TIDES IN YEARS ARE EXPECTED ON TUESDAY
NOVEMBER 15. THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE IN PORTLAND IS 12.0 FEET
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. EVEN A MINOR ONSHORE WIND WILL LIKELY CAUSE
SOME COASTAL FLOODING IN VULNERABLE LOCATIONS ALONG THE MAINE AND
NEW HAMPSHIRE COAST. AT THIS TIME, LOW PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO
MOVE UP THE EAST COAST IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD AND
COULD CAUSE A SMALL STORM SURGE, INCREASING THE CHANCE OF MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ150>152-154-120900-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON, ME TO PORT CLYDE, ME OUT 25 NM-
PENOBSCOT BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE, ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH, ME OUT 25 NM-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH, ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER, MA OUT
25 NM-
352 AM EST FRI NOV 11 2016

...GALE WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EST
SATURDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   GALE WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ153-120900-
CASCO BAY-
352 AM EST FRI NOV 11 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.