Severe Thunderstorm Warning 20, NWS Gray, ME

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Gray ME
604 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will move across the region today producing showers
and thunderstorms, with a few possibly being severe. An upper
level low will move overhead on Wednesday and allow for another
chance of showers and thunderstorms. Cooler and drier weather will
move into the region Thursday and Friday. A low pressure system
brings a chance of rain over the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
6 PM Update...
Another update to adjust PoPs and other sensible weather parameters
as storms continue across western Maine. The main area of activity
stretched from near Greenville to Farmington to Biddeford with
less convective coverage over central and southern New Hampshire.

A few storms are still showing rotation/supercellular
characteristics but will be waning as they move into the capital
district/Mid Coast region into the marine layer in the next 1-2
hours. These storms have exhibited strong updrafts and produced
wind damage as well as some severe hail interspersed with loads of
small hail.

415 PM Update... A few widely scattered storms are moving across
western Maine with weaker convection across New Hampshire. A
couple of these are severe with some rotation noted. Currently
have only received damaging wind reports with hail harder to come
by. These should decrease in intensity rapidly over the next 1-2
hours with the loss of daytime heating. After coordinating with
SPC will not be issuing a watch.

Have adjusted PoPs as well as temperatures, dew point
temperatures, and weather for recent meso/misoscale trends.

Previous discussion...
High impact weather potential: Scattered severe thunderstorms
with damaging winds and large hail through evening.

2pm.. Convection beginning to initiate across the area ahead of
the upper level trough. Mesoscale models and current conditions
support more convective initiation in the next few hours with a
few cells becoming more organized. Temperatures have climbed to
the 70s with a few 80 degree readings in southern New Hampshire.
Dewpoints are in the low 60s to mid 50s. 18Z sounding shows very
strong shear /around 50kts/ from 0-6km. While there is plenty of
shear instability is rather limited...with current analysis around
1200 J/kg. Expect the convective coverage to increase over the
next several hours as the main trough axis aloft pushes in from
western New York. Most likely area for severe storms is from EEN
to MHT to DAW to LEW. In this corridor moisture remains plentiful
with an axis of 60+ degree dewpoints.

Storms will continue through sunset at which point the lack of
heating will limit shear and allow storms to die off. Skies will
clear with temperatures falling to the 50s overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Wednesday a trough of cold air aloft will move into the region. At
the surface northwesterly flow will set up as the cold air pushes
into the area. Tightening surface pressure gradient will result in
a few gusts to 20mph. In the afternoon showers may form,
especially in the north where upslope flow will assist. Isolated
thunder and small hail is possible as steep lapse rates remain in
place.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Cyclonic flow will continue Wednesday night into Friday as slow
moving upper low gradually shifts east. Bottom line for the period
will be mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers...mainly in
the mountains and foothills. Temperatures will average well below
normal with lows overnight ranging through the 40s. Highs on
Thursday will only reach the mid 50s to mid 60s. Temperatures
will moderate slightly on Friday as a narrow ridge of high
pressure slowly builds in from the west and clouds begin to
diminish in the afternoon. Expect upper 50s to mid 60s north and
mid 60s to near 70 south.

High pressure will shift offshore on Saturday as another strong
shortwave takes aim at the northeast. Expect variable cloudiness
during the day with highs in the mid 60s to lower 70s.

Strong shortwave digging southeast from Canada Saturday night will
close off over New England on Sunday setting up another stretch
of cool rainy weather Sunday and Monday. Sunday looking like a
washout with low clouds...showers and areas of drizzle along with
a refreshing wind off the water as low pressure crosses the
area. Showers will linger into Sunday night as low pressure
continues east into the maritimes.

Monday looking drier with just a few showers around in eastern
zones during the morning. Increasing downslope flow will produce
a few sunny breaks Monday afternoon. After Monday high pressure
building in from the west will bring a return of quieter weather
through midweek.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Short Term /through Wednesday/... A few thunderstorms this
afternoon and early evening cloud produce strong winds and hail.
On Wednesday conditions will return to VFR throughout the area.
HIE may see MVFR ceilings in the afternoon due to upslope flow.

Long Term...
VFR Wednesday night through Saturday with areas of MVFR ceilings
in the mountains.

&&

.MARINE...
Short Term /through Wednesday/...Winds and seas are expected to
remain below small craft through the day on Wed.

Long Term...Sca's may be needed Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Recent widespread wetting rains, and a continuation of moderate
to high humidity levels and unsettled weather should keep fire
danger low the next few days.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
Can't entirely rule out minor splash-over once again within an
hour either side of the 2 AM Wednesday high tide from Casco Bay
southward to the Massachusetts border. With tide running as
forecast have not issued anything at this time but the tides will
need to be monitored.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...None.
NH...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

NEAR TERM...Hanes
SHORT TERM...Curtis
LONG TERM...Cempa

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
359 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>022-025>028-NHZ001>013-015-082000-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-SAGADAHOC-
LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-
NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-
SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-CHESHIRE-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH-
INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH-
359 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR MAINE...SOUTH CENTRAL
MAINE...SOUTHWEST MAINE...WEST CENTRAL MAINE...WESTERN MAINE...NEW
HAMPSHIRE...CENTRAL NEW HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. THE MAIN
THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

MEZ023-024-NHZ014-082000-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
359 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHWEST MAINE AND SOUTHERN
NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
WITH ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. THE MAIN
THREATS ARE DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND SPLASH OVER IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE TIME
OF HIGH TIDE TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

ANZ150>154-082000-
COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON, ME TO PORT CLYDE, ME OUT 25 NM-
PENOBSCOT BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE, ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH, ME OUT 25 NM-
CASCO BAY-
COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH, ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER, MA OUT
25 NM-
359 PM EDT TUE JUN 7 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CALL OR RADIO IN SIGNIFICANT WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACCORDING TO STANDARD OPERATING PROCEDURES.

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