Coastal Flood Statement 4, NWS Gray, ME

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1006 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW WILL TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS MORNING AS LOW
PRESSURE MOVES WELL EAST OF THE AREA. ANOTHER LOW WILL FORM OFF
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST AND MOVE WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF CAPE COD
TODAY. THIS LOW AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROVIDE CLOUDS
ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES ACROSS THE REGION TODAY. ANOTHER
WEAK LOW WILL PASS BY OFFSHORE ON WEDNESDAY WITH A TROUGH
EXTENDING WESTWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COULD PROVIDE A
FEW SNOW SHOWERS AND LIGHT SNOW ACCUMULATION TO THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. MUCH COLDER AIR FOLLOWS FOR FRIDAY AND THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
1010 AM...
AREA OF LIGHT TO SNOW NOW MOVING OVER SOUTHWEST MAINE IS BRINGING
VISIBILITIES DOWN TO NEAR A MILE OR TWO. THE SAME IS TRUE FOR THE
SHOWER ACTIVITY IN SOUTHERN NH. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL BE THE
RULE TODAY WITH CLOUDS AND COLD AIR REMAINING IN PLACE. SOME
WARMING WILL OCCUR AS SLIGHTLY WARMER AIR ARRIVES IN ADVANCE OF
LOW PRESSURE TO OUR WEST. THIS FEATURE AS WELL AS THE EAST COAST
TROUGH ARE THE MAIN REASONS PRECIPITATION REMAINS IN THE FORECAST
TODAY. NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ALTHOUGH UP TO
AN INCH IS POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

630 AM...FOR THIS ESTF UPDATE I DROPPED THE REMAINING WINTER
WEATHER HEADLINES BASED ON RADAR TRENDS AND LATEST METARS.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO CURRENT GRIDS.

PREV DISC...
AT 07Z...AN 980 MILLIBAR LOW WAS CENTERED SOUTHEAST OF NOVA SCOTIA.
A NEW LOW WAS TAKING SHAPE ALONG THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES. FOR
TODAY...LIGHT SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO TAPER TO FLURRIES THIS MORNING
AS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE EXITS THE AREA ALONG WITH THE LOW OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES. HOWEVER WITH THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS TO OUR
WEST AND THE SURFACE LOW PASSING WELL SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD LATER
TODAY...WE'LL REMAIN CLOUDY WITH A FEW FLURRIES FROM TIME-TO-TIME.
HIGHS SHOULD STRUGGLE INTO THE LOWER 20S ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH
MID AND UPPER 20S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/...
REMAINING MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT UNDER THE UPPER TROUGH WITH
SCATTERED FLURRIES. LOWS TONIGHT SHOULD BE MAINLY IN THE TEENS
WITH SOME SINGLE NUMBERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND
INTERNATIONAL BORDER AREA. FOR WEDNESDAY...A WEAK LOW WILL PASS BY
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF CAPE COD WITH A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING BACK
INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SYSTEM COUPLED WITH A FEW IMPULSES ROTATING
THROUGH THE UPPER TROUGH WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS ALONG
WITH SEVERAL ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS. HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE SEVERAL DEGREES
WARMER THEN TODAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER TROF AXIS IS FORECAST TO CROSS THE REGION THU. AHEAD OF IT
SN SHOWERS WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY FOR MOST AREAS...WITH HIGHER
CHANCES ACROSS THE MTNS WHERE OROGRAPHIC LIFT CAN ASSIST VERTICAL
MOTION. ANY SN ACCUMULATION WILL BE LIGHT.

THE NEXT FEATURE OF NOTE WILL BE A PIECE OF THE POLAR CIRCULATION
THAT PINWHEELS DOWN THRU HUDSON BAY AND ACROSS THE NERN CONUS.
MODEL FORECASTS OF H8 TEMPS NEAR -30C...SOME 20 OR MORE DEGREES
BELOW NORMAL...ARE SET TO DROP SSE THRU THE REGION. ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING AN AIR MASS AROUND 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...LIKELY REPRESENTING DOUBLE
DIGIT TEMP DEPARTURES. THIS SHOULD MAKE FOR THE COLDEST AIR OF THE
SEASON SO FAR...WITH HIGHS IN THE TEENS AND LOWS BELOW ZERO TO END
THE WEEKEND.

WITH THE STRONG S/WV TROF DRIVING THE COLD AIR THRU THE
REGION...WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR LATE BLOOMING LOW PRES DEVELOPMENT
IN THE GULF OF ME. BOTH THE 09.00Z GFS AND ECMWF SHOW THIS
EVOLUTION TO VARYING DEGREES...TURNING WIDESPREAD SN SHOWERS WITH
THE TROF PASSAGE INTO A MORE EXPANSIVE PRECIP SHIELD OVER COASTAL
AND ERN ZONES ESPECIALLY AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES OVERHEAD.

WHILE TEMPS FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE EXTENDED WILL EASILY AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL...SIGNS OF RELAXATION FOR THE PATTERN ARE THERE LATE
IN THE PERIOD. THAT COULD ALLOW FOR A BRIEF RETURN TO MILDER TEMPS
OR A MILDER SYSTEM EARLY NEXT WEEK...BEFORE THE PATTERN ATTEMPTS  TO
RELOAD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORT TERM...MVFR IN CEILINGS AND SCT -SHSN...WITH LCL IFR THROUGH
14Z OVR ME TAF SITES IN -SN AND FG. AREAS OF MVFR LINGER
TONIGHT...THEN MVFR WED IN -SHSN WITH LCL IFR PSB IN -SN.

LONG TERM...LINGERING TROF WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED IFR CONDITIONS
IN SHSN THU AND THU NIGHT. LATE FRI A STRONG COLD FNT APPROACHES
THE AREA AND SHSN ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD. AREAS OF
IFR AND LOWER CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE. SFC WIND GUSTS OF AT
LEAST 25 KTS APPEAR PROBABLE BEHIND THE FNT.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM...SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS TODAY...MAINLY FOR SEAS.
SMALL CRAFT SEAS MAY LINGER TONIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY.

LONG TERM...UPPER TROF SWINGS ACROSS THE WATERS FRI...BRINGING
ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS. STRONG COLD FNT ARRIVES
SAT...AND GALE FORCE GUSTS ACROSS ALL WATERS IN CAA ARE POSSIBLE.

&&

.TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
A 1 TO 1.5 FOOT STORM SURGE WILL COMBINE WITH HIGH ASTRONOMICAL
TIDES AND SEAS OF 10 TO 15 FEET THROUGH THIS MORNING. FOR COASTAL
YORK...ROCKINGHAM...AND CUMBERLAND COUNTIES THE HIGH TIDE AROUND
11 AM SHOULD BE NEAR THE FLOOD STAGE. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AND
SPLASHOVER IS LIKELY BECAUSE OF LARGE WAVES WITH POTENTIAL FOR
BEACH EROSION AS WELL.

&&

.GYX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ME...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ023-
     024.
NH...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR NHZ014.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     ANZ150>154.

&&

NEAR TERM...HANES
SHORT TERM...LEGRO
LONG TERM...SCHWIBS

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
630 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

MEZ007>009-012>014-018>022-025>028-NHZ001>013-015-101130-
NORTHERN OXFORD-NORTHERN FRANKLIN-CENTRAL SOMERSET-SOUTHERN OXFORD-
SOUTHERN FRANKLIN-SOUTHERN SOMERSET-INTERIOR YORK-
INTERIOR CUMBERLAND-ANDROSCOGGIN-KENNEBEC-INTERIOR WALDO-SAGADAHOC-
LINCOLN-KNOX-COASTAL WALDO-NORTHERN COOS-SOUTHERN COOS-
NORTHERN GRAFTON-NORTHERN CARROLL-SOUTHERN GRAFTON-SOUTHERN CARROLL-
SULLIVAN-MERRIMACK-BELKNAP-STRAFFORD-CHESHIRE NH-
EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-INTERIOR ROCKINGHAM-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-
630 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE...CENTRAL NEW
HAMPSHIRE...NORTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE AND
SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

MEZ023-024-NHZ014-101130-
COASTAL YORK-COASTAL CUMBERLAND-COASTAL ROCKINGHAM-
630 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WESTERN MAINE AND
SOUTHEASTERN NEW HAMPSHIRE.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   COASTAL FLOOD WARNING.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ANZ150>154-101130-
STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME OUT TO 25 NM-PENOBSCOT BAY-
PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME OUT TO 25 NM-CASCO BAY-
CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER MA OUT TO 25 NM-
630 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CASCO BAY...PENOBSCOT
BAY...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM CAPE ELIZABETH ME TO MERRIMACK RIVER
MA...THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PORT CLYDE ME TO CAPE ELIZABETH ME AND
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM STONINGTON ME TO PORT CLYDE ME.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

ES

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAY ME
1147 AM EST TUE FEB 09 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0630 AM     SNOW             3 SSE WAYNE             44.30N  70.06W
02/09/2016  M4.3 INCH        KENNEBEC           ME   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR SNOWFALL.

0700 AM     SNOW             2 WNW KENNEBUNK         43.39N  70.58W
02/09/2016  M2.5 INCH        YORK               ME   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR SNOWFALL.

0730 AM     SNOW             4 S POWNAL              43.85N  70.17W
02/09/2016  M5.0 INCH        CUMBERLAND         ME   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR SNOWFALL.

0800 AM     SNOW             1 WSW WINSLOW           44.55N  69.62W
02/09/2016  M1.7 INCH        KENNEBEC           ME   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR SNOWFALL.

1000 AM     SNOW             NW HARRISON             44.11N  70.68W
02/09/2016  M2.8 INCH        CUMBERLAND         ME   COCORAHS

            24 HOUR SNOWFALL.

&&

EVENT NUMBER GYX1601259
EVENT NUMBER GYX1601260
EVENT NUMBER GYX1601261
EVENT NUMBER GYX1601262
EVENT NUMBER GYX1601263

POHL

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