Red Flag Warning 5, NWS Guam

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
459 AM CHST THU APR 21 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE MARIANAS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A
FEW SHOWERS OVER SAIPAN AND TINIAN WATERS. A LINE OF CLOUDS AND
SHOWERS IS SEEN SOUTHWEST OF WAKE ISLAND IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
TRADE-WIND SURGE.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
WHILE DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...MODELS...MAINLY THE GFS...STILL HINT AT SHOWERS INCREASING
SLIGHTLY OVER THE WEEKEND AS THE WEAK TRADE-WIND SURGE MOVES THROUGH
THE AREA. GFS KEEPS THE STRONGER WINDS NORTH OF SAIPAN WITH THE BULK
OF SHOWERS NEAR TINIAN AND SAIPAN. STILL THIS IS 2 TO 3 DAYS AWAY SO
THERE IS STILL A FAIR BIT OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE DURATION OF
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS...NOT TO MENTION IF IT WILL HOLD
TOGETHER TILL IT REACHES THE ISLANDS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RETURN
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
LATEST SCATTEROMETRY AND BUOY DATA SHOW THAT WINDS AND SEAS HAVE
BOTH DIMINISHED BELOW SMALL CRAFT LEVELS SO HAVE CANCELLED THE SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO DECREASE SLOWLY THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. A MODERATE RISK OF RIP CURRENTS WILL CONTINUE AT
LEAST THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
CONTINUED DRY AND BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY PROMPT THE ISSUANCE OF A RED
FLAG WARNING LATER TODAY. WINDS WILL DECREASE OVER THE WEEKEND AND
THAT WILL REDUCE THE THREAT OF QUICK-SPREADING WILDFIRES.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
SATELLITE SHOWS A TRADE-WIND DISTURBANCE CENTERED NEAR 3N169E IS
CAUSING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST SOUTH OF EBON ATOLL...AND
TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE IS TRIGGERING SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS POHNPEI
STATE. DRY WEATHER PREVAILS AT MAJURO...AND AT KOSRAE THIS MORNING
AT LEAST. MODELS INDICATE HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL REMAIN SOUTH OF 5N
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT GFS ALSO INDICATES SOME SHOWERS COULD
DEVELOP NORTHWARD UP TO 7N-8N NEXT WEEK. OTHERWISE...MAJURO WILL
REMAIN DRY THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...WHILE A FEW SHOWERS SPREAD ACROSS
KOSRAE STATE AT TIMES...AND TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE CONTINUES TO
TRIGGER SPOTTY SHOWERS ACROSS POHNPEI STATE.

SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE ACROSS THE REGION THE
NEXT FEW DAYS AS TRADE WINDS DECREASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
ASCAT ANALYSIS SHOWS A SURFACE TROUGH STRETCHING FROM SOUTH OF KOROR
TO JUST NORTHWEST OF CHUUK. SATELLITE SHOWS WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS IN PATCHY AREAS ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS
TROUGH. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
PALAU THROUGH THIS WEEKEND...AND SOME SHOWERS COULD SPREAD NORTHWEST
ACROSS YAP STATE BY SATURDAY. TRADE-WIND CONVERGENCE ACROSS NORTHERN
CHUUK STATE SHOULD PRODUCE HELPFUL SHOWERS THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT
RELATIVELY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF CHUUK STATE THROUGH
THE LONGER TERM.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

W. AYDLETT/SIMPSON