Red Flag Warning 3, NWS Guam

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
802 AM CHST TUE APR 19 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
PGUA DOPPLER WEATHER RADAR SHOWS ONLY A FEW SHOWERS WITHIN THE
MARIANAS WATERS. THE VAD WIND PROFILE REVEALS EAST-NORTHEAST WINDS
OF 8 TO 12 KNOTS JUST OFF THE SURFACE WHICH INCREASE TO BETWEEN 12
AND 22 KNOTS FROM 2 THOUSAND TO 6 THOUSAND FEET.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
OVERALL DRY PATTERN CONTINUES. CHANGED MUCH OF THE NEXT FEW DAYS
FROM SLIGHT CHANCE TO ISOLATED THOUGH AS SOME MOISTURE IS POKING
ABOVE 850 MB. AFTER WEDNESDAY WINDS AND SEAS DIMINISH A BIT. LOOKS
LIKE WE WILL NOT NEED A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY AFTER ALL THIS TIME.
WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED ALL MENTION OF SCA FROM THE PRODUCTS. THE
KBDI IS NOW 759 AND EXPECTED TO CLIMB FURTHER. HOW MUCH FURTHER
BEARS WATCHING. WEATHER IS A LITTLE DRIER TODAY AND WE COULD NEED
ANOTHER RED FLAG WARNING.

&&

.EASTERN MICRONESIA...
A DRY TRADE-WIND PATTERN CONTINUES ACROSS THE MARSHALL ISLANDS WHILE
CLOUD COVER IS INCREASING OVER KOSRAE AND POHNPEI STATES. A TRADE-
WIND DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WILL STAY SOUTHEAST OF
MAJURO OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. MODELS INDICATE A TRADE-WIND
CONVERGENCE ZONE AND ATTENDANT BAND OF CONVECTION SETTING UP FROM
KOSRAE TO CHUUK STRETCHING INTO YAP STATE BEGINNING TONIGHT AND
LASTING THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO
FORM OVER KOSRAE AND POHNPEI LATE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
UNFORTUNATELY...LATEST MODEL RUNS INDICATE WIDESPREAD CONVECTION
WILL REMAIN WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE MARSHALL ISLANDS WHICH WILL
WORSEN THE REGIONS SEVERE TO EXCEPTIONAL DROUGHT.

SCATTEROMETER DATA AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE WINDS HAVE
SUBSIDED BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS ACROSS MAJURO COASTAL
WATERS. HOWEVER...COMBINED SEAS WILL REMAIN AT THE HAZARDOUS
THRESHOLD THROUGH TONIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING WEDNESDAY. TRADE-WIND
SWELL AND WAVES WILL MAINTAIN HAZARDOUS SURF ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES OF KOSRAE THROUGH TONIGHT. SWELL AND WIND WAVES WILL DIMINISH
WEDNESDAY ALLOWING SURF TO FALL BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

&&

.WESTERN MICRONESIA...
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS ALONG WITH INCREASED CLOUD COVER ARE
FOUND OVER CHUUK STATE. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE WEDNESDAY
WITH WET CONDITIONS CONTINUING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...POSSIBLY
THURSDAY... PROVIDING BENEFICIAL RAIN TO CHUUK. A TRADE-WIND
DISTURBANCE THAT BROUGHT SHOWERS TO YAP YESTERDAY WILL MOVE
THROUGH PALAU TODAY AND TONIGHT BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO
KOROR TONIGHT. MODELS STILL SHOW A ROBUST BAND OF CONVECTION
DEVELOPING ALONG 7N TO 8N BY MIDWEEK BUT CURRENT DISTRIBUTION OF
THE HEAVIEST PRECIP FROM MODEL GUIDANCE IS NORTH OF KOROR AND
SOUTH OF YAP. EXACT LOCATION OF CONVECTIVE BAND COULD DETERMINE IF
KOROR OR YAP GET SIGNIFICANT SHORT TERM RELIEF FROM THE ONGOING
DROUGHT ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.GUM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GU...FIRE WEATHER WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR GUZ001.

MARIANAS WATERS...NONE.
&&

STANKO/WILLIAMS