Wind Advisory 19, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

629 
WWUS72 KGSP 141102
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
602 AM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING... 
...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIDGES OF THE
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINAS MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...

NCZ035-056-068-501>504-506-508-510-SCZ006>008-141500-
/O.EXA.KGSP.FG.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-161214T1500Z/
ALEXANDER-CATAWBA-CLEVELAND-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
EASTERN POLK-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHLEHEM...ELLENDALE...MILLERSVILLE...
TAYLORSVILLE...HIDDENITE...STONY POINT...HICKORY...NEWTON...
ST. STEPHENS...SHELBY...KINGS MOUNTAIN...PATTERSON...
KINGS CREEK...LENOIR...SAWMILLS...GRANITE FALLS...JONAS RIDGE...
MORGANTON...PLEASANT GROVE...VALDESE...MARION...NEBO...
DYSARTSVILLE...FERO...GLENWOOD...FOREST CITY...RUTHERFORDTON...
SPINDALE...TRYON...COLUMBUS...MILL SPRING...GREENVILLE...
TAYLORS...GREER...MAULDIN...FORK SHOALS...SIMPSONVILLE...BEREA...
SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY
602 AM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A DENSE FOG ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING.

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA
  PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS.

* IMPACTS...LIMITED VISIBILITIES WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT.

* VISIBILITY...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...
USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

&&

$$

GAZ029-NCZ082-SCZ009-011>014-019-141500-
/O.CON.KGSP.FG.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-161214T1500Z/
ELBERT-UNION-YORK-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ELBERTON...FORTSONIA...MIDDLETON...
RUCKERSVILLE...MONROE...TRINITY...INDIAN TRAIL...WEDDINGTON...
CATAWBA...ROCK HILL...ABBEVILLE...CALHOUN FALLS...LAURENS...
CLINTON...UNION...MONARCH MILLS...CHESTER...CORNWELL...
GREAT FALLS...WARE SHOALS...NINETY SIX
602 AM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA 
  PIEDMONT...SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 85.

* IMPACTS...LIMITED VISIBILITIES WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...
USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

&&

$$

NCZ033-049-050-505-141500-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0019.161215T0500Z-161215T1700Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND
602 AM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
EST THURSDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...RIDGES OF THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINAS MOUNTAINS

* HAZARDS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS

* TIMING...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATE TONIGHT 
  AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN LIMBS...TREES...AND POWER
  LINES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED. IN ADDITION...GUSTY
  WINDS COMBINED WITH LOW TEMPERATURES IN THE TEENS MAY YIELD WIND
  CHILL VALUES BETWEEN ZERO AND FIVE BELOW.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP.

&&

$$

051 
WWUS72 KGSP 141459
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
959 AM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...AREAS OF DENSE FOG THIS MORNING... 
...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIDGES OF THE
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINAS MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...

GAZ029-NCZ082-SCZ009-011>014-019-141600-
/O.CAN.KGSP.FG.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-161214T1500Z/
ELBERT-UNION-YORK-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
959 AM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS
CANCELLED THE DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

PATCHY DENSE FOG MAY REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT HOUR BUT
VISIBILITIES HAVE IMPROVED OVERALL, AND THUS THE DENSE FOG
ADVISORY HAS ENDED.

$$

NCZ035-056-068-501>504-506-508-510-SCZ006>008-141600-
/O.EXT.KGSP.FG.Y.0011.000000T0000Z-161214T1600Z/
ALEXANDER-CATAWBA-CLEVELAND-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
EASTERN POLK-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BETHLEHEM...ELLENDALE...MILLERSVILLE...
TAYLORSVILLE...HIDDENITE...STONY POINT...HICKORY...NEWTON...
ST. STEPHENS...SHELBY...KINGS MOUNTAIN...PATTERSON...
KINGS CREEK...LENOIR...SAWMILLS...GRANITE FALLS...JONAS RIDGE...
MORGANTON...PLEASANT GROVE...VALDESE...MARION...NEBO...
DYSARTSVILLE...FERO...GLENWOOD...FOREST CITY...RUTHERFORDTON...
SPINDALE...TRYON...COLUMBUS...MILL SPRING...GREENVILLE...
TAYLORS...GREER...MAULDIN...FORK SHOALS...SIMPSONVILLE...BEREA...
SPARTANBURG...GAFFNEY
959 AM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS
MORNING...

* LOCATIONS...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND NORTH CAROLINA 
  PIEDMONT AND FOOTHILLS.

* IMPACTS...LIMITED VISIBILITIES WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY DIFFICULT.

* VISIBILITY...ONE QUARTER MILE OR LESS AT TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A DENSE FOG ADVISORY MEANS VISIBILITIES WILL FREQUENTLY BE
REDUCED TO LESS THAN ONE QUARTER MILE. IF DRIVING...SLOW DOWN...
USE YOUR HEADLIGHTS...AND LEAVE PLENTY OF DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU.

&&

$$

NCZ033-049-050-505-142300-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0019.161215T0500Z-161215T1700Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND
959 AM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO NOON
EST THURSDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...RIDGES OF THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINAS MOUNTAINS

* HAZARDS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS

* TIMING...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATE TONIGHT 
  AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN LIMBS...TREES...AND POWER 
  LINES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP.

&&

$$

243 
WWUS72 KGSP 141955
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
255 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIDGES OF THE
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINAS MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...

NCZ048-052-053-059-062-063-150400-
/O.EXB.KGSP.WI.Y.0019.161215T0500Z-161215T1800Z/
MADISON-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LUCK...WAYNESVILLE...TUCKASEGEE...
RAINBOW SPRINGS...KYLE...HIGHLANDS
255 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED
A WIND ADVISORY ABOVE 3500 FEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST THURSDAY.

* LOCATIONS...RIDGES OF THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS

* HAZARDS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS

* TIMING...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATE TONIGHT 
  AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN LIMBS...TREES...AND POWER 
  LINES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP.

&&

$$

NCZ033-049-050-505-150400-
/O.EXT.KGSP.WI.Y.0019.161215T0500Z-161215T1800Z/
AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND
255 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
THURSDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...RIDGES OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS

* HAZARDS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS

* TIMING...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATE TONIGHT 
  AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. SOME
  GUSTS AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET MAY EXCEED 60
  MPH.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN LIMBS...TREES...AND POWER 
  LINES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP.

&&

$$

511 
WWUS72 KGSP 150034
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
734 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE RIDGES OF THE
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINAS MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY...

NCZ033-048>050-052-053-059-062-063-505-150845-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0019.161215T0500Z-161215T1800Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...LUCK...
WAYNESVILLE...TUCKASEGEE...RAINBOW SPRINGS...KYLE...HIGHLANDS
734 PM EST WED DEC 14 2016

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM
EST THURSDAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...RIDGES OF THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS

* HAZARDS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS

* TIMING...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN LATE TONIGHT 
  AND REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. SOME 
  GUSTS AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET MAY EXCEED 60 
  MPH.

* IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN LIMBS...TREES...AND POWER 
  LINES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP.

&&

$$
07

221 
WWUS72 KGSP 150938
NPWGSP

URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
438 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016

...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE RIDGES OF THE
NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...

NCZ033-048>050-052-053-059-062-063-505-151800-
/O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0019.000000T0000Z-161215T1800Z/
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-NORTHERN JACKSON-
MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND...LUCK...
WAYNESVILLE...TUCKASEGEE...RAINBOW SPRINGS...KYLE...HIGHLANDS
438 AM EST THU DEC 15 2016

...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON
ABOVE 3500 FEET...

* LOCATIONS...RIDGES OF THE NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS

* HAZARDS...VERY WINDY CONDITIONS

* TIMING...NORTHWEST WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY THROUGH THIS MORNING.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH. SOME 
  GUSTS AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS ABOVE 5000 FEET MAY EXCEED 60 
  MPH.

* IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS WILL BLOW AROUND UNSECURED OBJECTS. TREE 
  LIMBS COULD BE BLOWN DOWN AND A FEW POWER OUTAGES MAY RESULT. 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS
THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH
PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS
CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP.

&&

$$

NED

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
336 AM EST Wed Dec 14 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Strong Canadian high pressure will build in today and remain through
the work week...dropping temperatures below normal into the weekend.
A moist cold front is expected to push across the area Sunday and
stall out just to the south through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 315 AM: Latest satellite and surface observations indicated
widespread low stratus and moderate fog across the forecast area.
The fog and low clouds will likely linger through sunrise. However,
shortly after sunrise, the gradient between a sfc low centered of
the Outer Banks and Mid West high pressure should yield
strengthening NW flow across the southern Appalachians. The light
downslope flow should erode the western edge of the stratus,
resulting in no restrictive visibility by mid morning. The rest of
the day will see zonal mid level flow and gradual rising sfc
pressure. Using a blend of temperature guidance, high temperatures
are forecast to range from around 50s across the mtns to low to mid
50s east of the mtns.

Tonight, pressure rises will occur across the western Carolinas and
NE GA through the overnight. A strong cold front is expected to
reach the NC mtns around midnight, then pushing south to the SC/GA
Piedmont by sunrise Thursday. Near term guidance indicates that NW
winds across the mtns will become gusty during the late night hours,
strengthening through sunrise. H85 CAA during the overnight may
lower H85 temps to as low as -14 C across the northern mtns. Low
morning temperatures are forecast to range from the teens across the
mtns to the low to mid 30s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 3 AM Wed, the axis of the incredibly broad long wave trough
will progress off the East Coast early in the period, with sprawling
arctic high pressure building into the region in its wake. Max temps
Thursday will be a solid 10 degrees below climo across the lower
terrain, and 15-20 degrees below normal across the mtns, with all
but the lowest valleys expected to remain at or below freezing
through the day. Surface dewpoints will also be extremely low Thu
afternoon, single digits in most areas, with even some sub-zero
readings likely across the mtns and far northern Piedmont. Winds
will be quite gusty across the mtns throughout the day, but probably
not sufficient to warrant an advisory.

Very cold conditions will persist Thu night and Friday, when temps
are expected to average 15-20 degrees below climo, meaning that only
the far southern Piedmont areas are likely to escape the 30s Fri
afternoon, while most mtn locations will still struggle to climb
above freezing.

While the center of the surface high is expected to transit off the
Mid-Atlantic coast late Friday, large scale height falls will be
underway to our west, with strong S/SW winds developing late Fri/Fri
night atop a layer of cold/dry air near the surface. Resultant moist
low level upglide is expected to develop light precip, esp across
western areas by daybreak Saturday. This precip will fall into a
surface layer in which wet bulb temps should be well below freezing.
However, considering the transitory nature of the surface high
supplying the cold/dry air, the cold layer will be very shallow, and
strong warm advection is expected to quickly establish a prominent
warm nose aloft Sat morning. Additionally, there's a pretty clear
consensus in guidance that the air above about -2C will be
sub-saturated. These factors argue for FZDZ/-FZRA as the primary
wintry p-type, and this is what's reflected in the forecast.

Although in-situ cold air damming is expected to develop as precip
falls into the low-wet bulb surface air, considering the transitory
nature of the parent high (it is forecast to be at least a couple of
hundred miles off the Mid-Atlantic coast by 12Z Saturday), it will
be impossible to lock in any cold air for very long, except perhaps
in a few sheltered locations near the Blue Ridge in NC (where not a
lot of QPF is expected). So while QPF appears to be trending up in
guidance, ice accretion should fall well below warning criteria. Of
course, any amount of ice accretion warrants an advisory, and due to
the cold conditions Thu and Fri, there could certainly be some road
issues Sat morning.

Conditions will warm throughout the day Saturday, as the departing
parent high and strong warm advection gradually drain the wedge. In
fact, temps are expected to be just a few degrees shy of normal by
Sat evening. Precip (in the form of -RA/DZ) chances will continue
into the afternoon and evening, although the focus should shift to
mechanical lift in the strong SW flow regime across SW NC/NE GA,
while upglide wanes across the remainder of the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 245 AM Wednesday: Good model agreement is had through the
majority of the ext range period. In fact...the op models are
independently changing their tunes Tues with drier high pressure
working in and shunting a moist sfc bndry south. In the
meantime...the period will begin with a cold front well off to the
west while isent lift -shra develop across the FA. These will be low
end precip makers with possibly arnd an inch across the far sw/rn
mtn zones. A good amount of waa will commence and maintain a
non-diurnal temp curve through Sun morning...setting up high temps
about 10 degrees above normal.

The models have backed off sigfnt/ly on the amount of pre/frontal
instability...so the mention of thunder has been mostly removed. The
far se/rn zones look to still have a shot at some deeper convect
thunder however. The guidance has also maintained straight line hodos
per their previous solns...yet speed shear will still be very high.
Around 40 kts at 2 kft...which could create some wind issues over
the higher terrain and wind shear issues for aviation Sun. The cold
front pushes through by midnight and will stall out just to the
south of the FA through Mon. Weak sfc waves will propagate across
the front and keep the pop potential in the high chance range most
areas.

The fcst is more uncertain Tue into Wed...even with the
models agreeing fairly well. The reason for the uncertainty is the
degree of change in the mass fields and wrn ulvl synoptic
pattern. The idea is to now have the the strong sfc high build in
from the north and shunt the sta front farther south...thus
introducing a dry period as a cutoff h5 low / GOM low is slow to
form and moist adv remains to the west thru the end of the period.
This was given some weight and it will be interesting to see if
future model runs hold on to this new idea. For now...pops Tue and
Wed have been lowered a cat or so but not eliminated. With ne/ly
flow and clouds/precip...max temps on Mon will be held 8-10 degrees
below normal. Maxes Tue/Wed are more uncertain due to wind
flow...but if enuf insol is realized as indicated by the
guidance...a return to near or a bit above normal temps is possible.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At KCLT and Elsewhere: Widespread low clouds and fog will likely
linger across the western Carolinas through the pre dawn hours.
Light NW winds should yield weak downslope flow, gradually eroding
restrictive ceilings and fog from the west to the east. Conditions
should return to VFR by 14z. High pressure will build across the
southern Appalachians through this afternoon into the evening. Winds
are forecast to remain from the NE to E during the afternoon,
shifting west during the evening. SCT to BKN mid clouds are forecast
to remain over the region once the morning stratus dissipates.

Outlook: An arctic cold front will cross the area Wednesday night
with little moisture. Gusty NW winds are expected during the day
on Thursday.  The next round of restrictions are expected Friday
evening as another moist upglide regime sets up, possibly yielding
wintry ptype issues.

Confidence Table...

            08-14Z        14-20Z        20-02Z        02-06Z
KCLT       Med   63%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High  82%     High  94%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       Low   58%     High  80%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       High  91%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High  82%     High  97%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       Med   77%     High  82%     High  94%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for GAZ029.
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for NCZ082.
SC...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for SCZ009-
     011>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...NED
SHORT TERM...JDL
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...NED

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
822 PM EST TUE DEC 13 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-
068>072-501>510-SCZ001>008-010-150130-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-
MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-
POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-ANDERSON-
822 PM EST TUE DEC 13 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF AN INTRUDING
COLD FRONT. VISIBILITIES COULD DROP TO AS LOW AS 1 TO 3 MILES AT
TIMES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE. MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD
COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE...BRINGING A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TO
THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET MAY MIX IN AT
TIMES. A GLAZE OF ICE MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED
SURFACES. THE BEST CHANCES OF ICE ACCRETION WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM AND
PRECIPITATION CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY LATE MORNING.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ029-NCZ082-SCZ009-011>014-019-150130-
ELBERT-UNION-YORK-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
822 PM EST TUE DEC 13 2016

...DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST WEDNESDAY...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

PLEASE LISTEN TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR GO TO WEATHER.GOV ON THE
INTERNET FOR MORE INFORMATION ABOUT THE FOLLOWING HAZARDS.

   DENSE FOG ADVISORY.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...WINTER WEATHER POSSIBLE. MOISTURE WILL OVERSPREAD
COLD AIR AT THE SURFACE...BRINGING A CHANCE OF FREEZING RAIN TO
THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY. SOME LIGHT SNOW OR SLEET MAY MIX IN AT
TIMES. A GLAZE OF ICE MAY BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED
SURFACES. THE BEST CHANCES OF ICE ACCRETION WILL BE IN THE
SOUTHWEST NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM AND
PRECIPITATION CHANGE TO ALL RAIN BY LATE MORNING.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

CDG