Alert archive / North Carolina / Wind Advisories in 2016
Wind Advisory 14, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC issued this wind advisory at Oct 21, 2016, 10:17 AM EDT for 10 counties in North Carolina. It took effect at Oct 21, 2016, 11:00 AM EDT. It was in force for 25 hr.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Oct 21, 2016, 10:17 AM EDT (14:17 UTC)
- In effect from
- Oct 21, 2016, 11:00 AM EDT
- Expired
- Oct 22, 2016, 12:00 PM EDT
- In force
- 25 hr
- Issued by
- NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC
Counties Avery County, NC, Buncombe County, NC, Burke County, NC, Caldwell County, NC, Henderson County, NC, McDowell County, NC, Mitchell County, NC, Polk County, NC, Rutherford County, NC, Yancey County, NC
The radar
The Greer radar (KGSP), 92 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 14:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Greensboro/Hi Pt, NC (KGSO), launched 12:00Z, 2.3 hours before the alert went out and 201 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 1 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1019 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 43 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 73 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 132 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted.
686 WWUS72 KGSP 211417 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1017 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016 ...GUSTY WINDS ACROSS THE EAST FACING SLOPES AND ADJACENT NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS TODAY... .A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA TODAY. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. NCZ033-049-050-053-065-501-503-505-507-509-212200- /O.NEW.KGSP.WI.Y.0014.161021T1500Z-161021T2200Z/ AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS- BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS- POLK MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INGALLS...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND... SWISS...BURNSVILLE...CELO...MICAVILLE...RAMSEYTOWN...BUSICK... SPRUCE PINE...POPLAR...ASHEVILLE...HENDERSONVILLE...FLETCHER... DANA...EAST FLAT ROCK...TUXEDO...ETOWAH...JONAS RIDGE...ASHFORD... WOODLAWN...OLD FORT...SALUDA 1017 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016 ...WIND ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING. * LOCATIONS... EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. * HAZARDS...TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS. * TIMING...WIND GUSTS WILL PEAK DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS...THEN WEAKEN THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 TO 55 MPH. * IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN LIMBS...TREES...AND POWER LINES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP. && $$ NED
4 follow-up statements
826 WWUS72 KGSP 211852 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 252 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016 ...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE EAST FACING SLOPES AND ADJACENT NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... .A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS AND GEORGIA THROUGH TONIGHT. IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. NCZ033-049-050-053-065-501-503-505-507-509-220600- /O.EXT.KGSP.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-161022T1600Z/ AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS- BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS- POLK MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INGALLS...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND... SWISS...BURNSVILLE...CELO...MICAVILLE...RAMSEYTOWN...BUSICK... SPRUCE PINE...POPLAR...ASHEVILLE...HENDERSONVILLE...FLETCHER... DANA...EAST FLAT ROCK...TUXEDO...ETOWAH...JONAS RIDGE...ASHFORD... WOODLAWN...OLD FORT...SALUDA 252 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016 ...WIND ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY... * LOCATIONS... EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. * HAZARDS...TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS. * TIMING...VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN FORECAST TO WEAKEN LATE SATURDAY MORNING. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 TO 55 MPH. * IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN LIMBS...TREES...AND POWER LINES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP. && $$ NED
657 WWUS72 KGSP 220234 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1034 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016 ...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE EAST FACING SLOPES AND ADJACENT NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING... .IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING. NCZ033-049-050-053-065-501-503-505-507-509-221045- /O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-161022T1600Z/ AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS- BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS- POLK MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INGALLS...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND... SWISS...BURNSVILLE...CELO...MICAVILLE...RAMSEYTOWN...BUSICK... SPRUCE PINE...POPLAR...ASHEVILLE...HENDERSONVILLE...FLETCHER... DANA...EAST FLAT ROCK...TUXEDO...ETOWAH...JONAS RIDGE...ASHFORD... WOODLAWN...OLD FORT...SALUDA 1034 PM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT SATURDAY... * LOCATIONS... EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. * HAZARDS...TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS. * TIMING...VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT...THEN FORECAST TO WEAKEN LATE SATURDAY MORNING. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 50 TO 55 MPH. * IMPACTS...STRONG WINDS MAY BLOW DOWN LIMBS...TREES...AND POWER LINES. SCATTERED POWER OUTAGES ARE EXPECTED. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP. && $$
817 WWUS72 KGSP 220834 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 434 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016 ...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE EAST FACING SLOPES AND ADJACENT NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS THROUGH THIS MORNING... .IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA ON FRIDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS WILL BUILD OVER SOUTHERN APPALACHIAN REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL SUPPORT VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS THROUGH THIS MORNING. AS HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE REGION LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THIS WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. NCZ033-049-050-053-065-501-503-505-507-509-221645- /O.NEW.KGSP.FR.Y.0007.161023T0400Z-161023T1300Z/ /O.CON.KGSP.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-161022T1600Z/ AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS- BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS- POLK MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INGALLS...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND... SWISS...BURNSVILLE...CELO...MICAVILLE...RAMSEYTOWN...BUSICK... SPRUCE PINE...POPLAR...ASHEVILLE...HENDERSONVILLE...FLETCHER... DANA...EAST FLAT ROCK...TUXEDO...ETOWAH...JONAS RIDGE...ASHFORD... WOODLAWN...OLD FORT...SALUDA 434 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016 ...WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY... ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY. * LOCATIONS... EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. * HAZARDS...TREES AND POWER LINES DOWN BY STRONG GUSTY WINDS THIS MORNING. PATCHY FROST LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. * TIMING...VERY GUSTY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH LATE MORNING. FROST WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH UNTIL NOON TODAY. * TEMPERATURES...DROPPING INTO THE 30S LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. * IMPACTS...GUSTY WINDS WILL BLOW AROUND UNSECURED OBJECTS. TREE LIMBS COULD BE BLOWN DOWN AND A FEW POWER OUTAGES MAY RESULT. OUTSIDE PLANTS THAT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FROST DAMAGE NEED TO BE PROTECTED OR BROUGHT INDOORS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WIND ADVISORY MEANS THAT WINDS OF 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED. WINDS THIS STRONG CAN MAKE DRIVING DIFFICULT...ESPECIALLY FOR HIGH PROFILE VEHICLES. USE EXTRA CAUTION. A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF WEATHER INFORMATION FOR THE LATEST UPDATES. ADDITIONAL DETAILS CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.WEATHER.GOV/GSP. && $$ GAZ010-NCZ048-051-052-058-059-062>064-221645- /O.NEW.KGSP.FR.Y.0007.161023T0400Z-161023T1300Z/ RABUN-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON- SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...PINE MOUNTAIN... MOUNTAIN CITY...FAUST...MARS HILL...MARSHALL...WALNUT... ALLENSTAND...HOT SPRINGS...LUCK...ALARKA...ALMOND...BRYSON CITY... LUADA...WESSER...WAYNESVILLE...WATERVILLE...CANTON...CRUSO... COVE CREEK...ROBBINSVILLE...STECOAH...CULLOWHEE...TUCKASEGEE... SYLVA...FRANKLIN...RAINBOW SPRINGS...KYLE...HIGHLANDS... WOLF MOUNTAIN...CASHIERS...BREVARD...CEDAR MOUNTAIN... LITTLE RIVER 434 AM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016 ...FROST ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY. * LOCATIONS...THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND RABUN COUNTY GEORGIA * TEMPERATURES...LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S. * TIMING...LATE TONIGHT UNTIL AROUND 9 AM SUNDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...AREAS OF FROST WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS. OUTSIDE PLANTS THAT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FROST DAMAGE NEED TO BE PROTECTED OR BROUGHT INDOORS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. && $$ JPT
608 WWUS72 KGSP 221613 NPWGSP URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 1213 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016 ...GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE EAST FACING SLOPES AND ADJACENT NORTH CAROLINA FOOTHILLS THROUGH THIS MORNING... .HIGH PRESSURE SPREADS OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH. THIS WILL ALLOW AREAS OF FROST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS. NCZ033-049-050-053-065-501-503-505-507-509-230015- /O.EXP.KGSP.WI.Y.0014.000000T0000Z-161022T1600Z/ /O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0007.161023T0400Z-161023T1300Z/ AVERY-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS- BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS- POLK MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...INGALLS...BANNER ELK...NEWLAND... SWISS...BURNSVILLE...CELO...MICAVILLE...RAMSEYTOWN...BUSICK... SPRUCE PINE...POPLAR...ASHEVILLE...HENDERSONVILLE...FLETCHER... DANA...EAST FLAT ROCK...TUXEDO...ETOWAH...JONAS RIDGE...ASHFORD... WOODLAWN...OLD FORT...SALUDA 1213 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016 ...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY... ...WIND ADVISORY HAS EXPIRED... * LOCATIONS... EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL NORTH CAROLINA MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. * WINDS...NORTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH...DECREASING TO AROUND 5 MPH LATE TONIGHT. * TEMPERATURES...DROPPING INTO THE 30S LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY. * IMPACTS...OUTSIDE PLANTS THAT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FROST DAMAGE NEED TO BE PROTECTED OR BROUGHT INDOORS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. && $$ GAZ010-NCZ048-051-052-058-059-062>064-230015- /O.CON.KGSP.FR.Y.0007.161023T0400Z-161023T1300Z/ RABUN-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON- SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...PINE MOUNTAIN... MOUNTAIN CITY...FAUST...MARS HILL...MARSHALL...WALNUT... ALLENSTAND...HOT SPRINGS...LUCK...ALARKA...ALMOND...BRYSON CITY... LUADA...WESSER...WAYNESVILLE...WATERVILLE...CANTON...CRUSO... COVE CREEK...ROBBINSVILLE...STECOAH...CULLOWHEE...TUCKASEGEE... SYLVA...FRANKLIN...RAINBOW SPRINGS...KYLE...HIGHLANDS... WOLF MOUNTAIN...CASHIERS...BREVARD...CEDAR MOUNTAIN... LITTLE RIVER 1213 PM EDT SAT OCT 22 2016 ...FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY... * LOCATIONS...THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND RABUN COUNTY GEORGIA * TEMPERATURES...LOWS TONIGHT IN THE 30S. * TIMING...LATE TONIGHT UNTIL AROUND 9 AM SUNDAY MORNING. * IMPACTS...AREAS OF FROST WILL DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA...ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS. OUTSIDE PLANTS THAT ARE SUSCEPTIBLE TO FROST DAMAGE NEED TO BE PROTECTED OR BROUGHT INDOORS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A FROST ADVISORY MEANS THAT WIDESPREAD FROST IS EXPECTED. SENSITIVE OUTDOOR PLANTS MAY BE KILLED IF LEFT UNCOVERED. && $$ NED
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this wind advisory went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC wrote its last area forecast discussion before this wind advisory went out at Oct 21, 7:26 AM EDT, 2 hours 51 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Oct 21, 7:26 AM EDT, 2 hours 51 minutes before
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
726 AM EDT Fri Oct 21 2016
.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will cross the area this morning, ushering in a much
cooler and drier air mass for the weekend. Another cold front will
cross the region on Monday to reinforce the cooler temperatures.
After that front passes, high pressure will control our weather
through the middle of the week.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 am update: the cold front has been steadily pushing eastward
across the NC mts early this morning accompanied by scattered rain
showers. Winds are just now starting to veer around to NWLY over
far western NC and increase in speed. Otherwise, the fcst is still
pretty much on track for the rest of today and tonight.
As of 320 am Friday: precip has been fairly slow making its way
into the CWFA early this morning. So far, it has been confined
to the NC/TENN border zones. Cloud cover should continue to
increase thru the morning hours as the cold front pushes farther
east. Overall, the most recent model guidance is trending drier
with this fropa. Likely to categorical POPs are confined to the
NC/TENN border counties with slight to solid chance elsewhere.
By 00z Saturday, drier air will be advecting into the CWFA behind
the front and POPs dwindle. Winds will be gusty today and are
expected to remain out of the NW and blustery, especially over
the higher terrain, well into Saturday. By midday today, wind gusts
are expected to reach the upper 30s kts across the high terrain
and east facing mtn slopes. The strongest gusts will likely occur in
the wake of the mtns, with the forecast development of a mtn wave.
Based on the latest model guidance, I've lowered wind speeds a bit
from the previous fcst. Thus a Wind Advisory should not be needed,
however we will monitor trends if the guidance trends upward.
Otherwise, temps will be considerably cooler today and tonight with
highs and lows nearly 20 degrees cooler than yesterday.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EDT Friday...the balance of the weekend looks cool and
relatively quiet, although Saturday should be a bit breezy. Think
any lingering small chance of precip will not linger past the middle
part of Saturday morning...thereafter sky will gradually clear
across the NC mtns. The main story will be the high temps...which
will be on the order of 7-10 degrees below normal...under a mostly
sunny to sunny sky. This will finally make it really feel like
Autumn across the region at long last.
The axis of the upper ridge will remain to our west through the rest
of the weekend, which will keep the wrn Carolinas under a cool NW
flow, and will support surface high pressure moving across the
Southeast. This should yield another seasonally cool night on
Saturday night with temps getting cold enough for more widespread
frost across the mtns once the wind dies down toward daybreak on
Sunday. There could even be some patchy frost outside the mtns in
the normally cooler and sheltered spots. Temps will moderate quickly
on Sunday afternoon...returning to near normal under sunny sky...and
will not be nearly as cold Sunday night ahead of a reinforcing cold
front dropping down from the NW.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Friday...not much change in thinking with regard to
the medium range. A reinforcing cold front will move through early
Monday, bringing in another high pressure air mass from the NW. The
timing of the frontal passage will have a big affect on the high
temp fcst that day, which at present remains above normal. This
could easily get knocked back several degrees if the front arrives
Sunday night. Either way, temps will be closer to normal thru
mid-week as surface high pressure moves past to the north.
Confidence slowly erodes through the end of the week as the model
guidance shows the next system moving across the Gt Lakes on
Thursday and pushing a cold front toward our region. There remains
consensus among the operational model solutions that the front will
dry up before arrival, so the fcst was kept dry. This might be more
bad news for people that need rain, but is not atypical of October
across the region.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: the cold front continues to push eastward
across the NC mts early this morning. A band of light showers
remain confined to the higher terrain, but should spread into the
foothills over the next few hours. The only restrictions included
for TAF period are MVFR cigs at KAVL from roughly 13z thru late
tonight and the possibility of visby restrictions if the site receives
much precip. Persistent gusty winds along and behind the cold front
will be the main concern for the period. Winds will veer around to NWLY
later this morning and remain NWLY for for the remainder of the period.
Speeds will be highest over the higher terrain include KAVL with sustained
speeds in the 15 to 20kt range and gusts around 25kts with some brief
higher gusts likely. The other sites should see slightly weaker values.
Outlook: the pressure gradient will remain tight across the western
Carolinas through Saturday with breezy conditions expected. Dry high
pressure will then spread across the region on Sunday and linger into
early next week.
Confidence Table...
11-17Z 17-23Z 23-05Z 05-06Z
KCLT High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGSP High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAVL Med 66% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KHKY High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KGMU High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
KAND High 100% High 100% High 100% High 100%
The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:
www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation
&&
.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.
&&
SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...JPT
SHORT TERM...PM
LONG TERM...PM
AVIATION...JPTHazardous weather outlook, Oct 21, 6:46 AM EDT, 3 hours 31 minutes before
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC 646 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016 NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-221100- AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM- NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON- CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS- RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS- 646 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM IS POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...WITH THE MAIN THREAT BEING CLOUD-TO-GROUND LIGHTNING. AFTER A COLD FRONT PASSES THIS MORNING...THE WIND WILL BECOME STRONG AND GUSTY FROM THE NORTHWEST...ESPECIALLY AT RIDGETOPS AND MOUNTAIN PASSES. A FEW WIND GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT COULD BE STRONG ENOUGH TO KNOCK DOWN A FEW TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ..SATURDAY...HIGH WINDS POSSIBLE. THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY LINGER INTO SATURDAY AFTERNOON. ..SUNDAY...FROST/FREEZE POSSIBLE. SUNDAY MORNING LOW TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY DIP INTO THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 30S IN SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEY LOCATIONS. AREAS OF FROST COULD DEVELOP BY SUNRISE. ..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504- 506-508-510-SCZ001>014-019-221100- RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL- DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS- UNION-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL- GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS- GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS- GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE- LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD- 646 AM EDT FRI OCT 21 2016 THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA. .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT. NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. ..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... NONE. PM
Nearby
Wind Advisories in North Carolina, 2016Every wind advisory in 2016
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.