Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1253 PM EST Sun Dec 18 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
The cold front will stall out from Florida to well off the Carolina
coast early in the week.  Drier high pressure will gradually build
over the region from the north through mid week. Another cold front
will approach the area by early Thursday and move offshore on Friday
with dry high pressure settling over the region in its wake.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1245 PM: A band of weak convection associated with a
prefrontal shear axis has pushed through the foothills, NE GA, and
western Upstate, and is on track to exit the CWFA by 3 PM.
Instability is building ahead of it and the activity is expected
to become a little more robust as it works east. The very strong
midlevel winds ahead of the front will maintain strong shear
parameters during this time. HRRR continues to generate a couple
swaths of significant updraft helicity within its strongest
depicted cells, but so far it is proving to be a little overdone
in magnitude of simulated reflectivity. We are still monitoring
the convection closely for any line breaks and/or spin-ups, but
the SW to WSW surface winds ahead of the line most likely will
preclude tornado development.

Late this aftn, the front looks to push east, clearing the fcst
area by nlt than 7-8pm this evening, with a few lingering shra
possible. Thus PoPs will taper yet remain at low end likely to
high end chance levels into Monday morning.  Fcst temperatures
will generally feature diurnal warming through mid morning, before
non diurnal cooling trends are favored behind the front as the
aforementioned Canadian high builds yielding increased caa.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Sunday: The guidance remains in good agreement on the
short term portion of the forecast.

A shallow upper trough crosses the area Monday and Monday night with
another shallow trough crossing the area Tuesday and Tuesday night.
An upper jet max moves over the area Monday then east of the area
Monday night. The cold front from the near term starts the short
term just south of the area. Despite its slow movement, the upper
features should provide just enough push to move the cold front
south and east of the area by Monday night. The deep moisture and
forcing will move out of the area as well. Before then, rain will
linger across the area Monday morning before moving east and south
during the afternoon and ending during the evening. Despite the cold
high pressure moving in behind the front Monday, the precip should
fall as all liquid rain. QPF will be very light as well. The cold
high pressure remains over the area Tuesday and Tuesday night. While
no precip is expected, there will be clouds from time to time as
moisture moves through. Highs Monday will be 5 to 10 degrees below
normal then rise a couple of degrees on Tuesday. Lows Monday night
will be near to a little below normal then rise a couple of degrees
Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 AM EST Sunday: the medium range fcst picks up at 12z on
Wednesday with a relatively flat upper lvl pattern over the SE
CONUS. As we move into Thursday, a positively tilted upper trof
digs down across the Central Plains and approaches our area by
midday. As the trof moves thru the fcst area its eastward propagation
slows, but is expected to be moving offshore by late Fri/early Sat.
Heights rise in its wake, as upper ridging builds back over the
region. At the sfc, high pressure will be centered just to our north
as a low deepens over the Central Plains. A strong cold front associated
with the low will approach the CWFA early Thursday and sweep across
the fcst area later in the day. Drying high pressure will spread
back over the region in the front's wake on Friday and linger
over the area well into the weekend. As for the sensible fcst,
no major changes were made. POPs ramp up quickly late Wed into early
Thurs as the front approaches and then ramp back down later in
the day/evening. Instability out ahead of the front appears very
minimal at this time, with only isolated thunder possible. The
northern zones could also see some light snowfall behind the front
early Fri, as temps drop at least a category below freezing.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT: A prefrontal convective band is on track to pass thru
there before 19z. A quick shot of showers producing gusty winds is
expected. Winds will turn northwesterly after the band passes, with
some low-end gusts possible thru the remainder of the afternoon. I
am favoring the more pessimistic guidance overnight, with the
cold front passing, and dry continental high pressure pushing in
underneath the warmer and more humid Bermuda high. This should set
up a strong inversion and upglide, bringing a secondary increase
in PoPs and likely low cigs as well.

Elsewhere: Deep convection is not expected now that the prefrontal
band has passed. Light to moderate showers however will spread
across the area this afternoon, as winds turn NW. As noted above
for KCLT, tonight the cold front pushes through the area, with
subtropical air being forced atop it. For this reason lowering
cigs are fcst at all sites, along with an increase in PoPs.

Outlook: Precipitation chances decrease on Monday as the cold
front drifts slowly southeast. Dry high pressure will return by
Tuesday leading to lower chances for restrictions through midweek.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High  89%     High  91%     High  83%     Med   79%
KGSP       High  89%     Low   55%     Med   60%     Med   77%
KAVL       High  84%     Med   74%     Med   75%     High  82%
KHKY       Med   78%     High  87%     Med   66%     Med   77%
KGMU       High  91%     Low   58%     Med   60%     Med   77%
KAND       Med   79%     Med   77%     Low   59%     Med   75%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...JPT
NEAR TERM...CDG/Wimberley
SHORT TERM...RWH
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...Wimberley

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1007 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2016

GAZ028-029-NCZ070>072-082-SCZ006>014-019-191515-
HART-ELBERT-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-GREATER GREENVILLE-
SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-
GREENWOOD-
1007 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM MIDDAY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE PIEDMONT
OF THE CAROLINAS AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA. WITH STRONG LOW LEVEL
WINDS IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS MAY
PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. ALSO...AN ISOLATED TORNADO CANNOT BE
RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-NCZ033-035>037-048>053-056>059-062>065-068-069-
501>510-SCZ001>005-191515-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-
MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
1007 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
1103 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2016

GAZ028-029-SCZ002-003-005>007-010>012-181645-
Hart GA-Elbert GA-Pickens Mountains SC-Abbeville SC-
Greater Greenville SC-Greater Pickens SC-Spartanburg SC-
Greenville Mountains SC-Laurens SC-Anderson SC-
1103 AM EST SUN DEC 18 2016

...Rain SHOWERS WITH GUSTY WINDS WILL IMPACT HART...ELBERT...
NORTHWESTERN LAURENS...EASTERN PICKENS...NORTHWESTERN
SPARTANBURG...GREENVILLE... ABBEVILLE AND ANDERSON COUNTIES UNTIL
1145 AM EST...

At 1102 AM EST, Doppler radar indicated HEAVY Rain SHOWERS along a
line extending from 12 miles northeast of Pickens to 8 miles south of
Clemson to 7 miles south of Danielsville, and moving east at 35 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Greenville Downtown, Anderson, Easley, Elberton, Hartwell, Clemson,
Pickens, Spartanburg, Greenville Eastside and West Greenville.

Wind Gusts up to 45 mph will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3399 8283 3398 8286 3401 8294 3403 8294
      3404 8298 3410 8304 3415 8306 3417 8310
      3422 8308 3425 8310 3455 8288 3507 8260
      3515 8186 3456 8216 3407 8254 3401 8260
      3398 8260 3397 8264 3399 8266 3397 8278
TIME...MOT...LOC 1602Z 268DEG 31KT 3501 8257 3456 8281 3401 8321

ARK

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
134 PM EST SUN DEC 18 2016

NCZ057-071-072-082-181915-
Cabarrus NC-Rowan NC-Union NC-Mecklenburg NC-
134 PM EST SUN DEC 18 2016

...SHOWERS PRODUCING STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL MECKLENBURG...
SOUTHEASTERN ROWAN...NORTHEASTERN UNION AND CABARRUS COUNTIES UNTIL
215 PM EST...

At 133 PM EST, Doppler radar indicated STRONG THUNDERSTORMS along a
line extending from 12 miles southeast of Salisbury to 3 miles
southwest of Uptown Charlotte, and moving east at 45 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Uptown Charlotte, Downtown Concord, Central Charlotte, East
Charlotte, Mint Hill, Harrisburg, Mt Pleasant, Freedom Park, The
Plaza and Hidden Valley.

Wind Gusts up to 45 mph will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3550 8030 3519 8051 3518 8050 3518 8048
      3517 8047 3516 8044 3517 8042 3517 8039
      3518 8037 3517 8036 3519 8028 3515 8028
      3515 8102 3517 8100 3555 8037 3556 8021
      3551 8018
TIME...MOT...LOC 1833Z 267DEG 54KT 3551 8037 3520 8089

07

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
157 PM EST SUN DEC 18 2016

..TIME...   ...EVENT...      ...CITY LOCATION...     ...LAT.LON...
..DATE...   ....MAG....      ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....
            ..REMARKS..

0112 PM     TSTM WND DMG     4 N PAW CREEK           35.33N 80.95W
12/18/2016                   MECKLENBURG        NC   FIRE DEPT/RESCUE

            TWO TREES DOWN ALONG WITH A COUPLE POWERLINES ON MOUNTAIN
            ISLAND DRIVE EAST. NO STRUCTURAL DAMAGE REPORTED.

&&

OUTLAW

Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
221 PM EST SUN DEC 18 2016

NCZ072-082-181945-
Cabarrus NC-Union NC-
221 PM EST SUN DEC 18 2016

...SHOWERS WITH STRONG WINDS WILL IMPACT UNION COUNTY UNTIL 245 PM
EST...

At 219 PM EST, Doppler radar indicated showers with strong winds
along a line extending from 15 miles north of Monroe to 8 miles
north of Lancaster, and moving east at 35 mph.

Locations to be impacted include...
Monroe, Unionville, Wesley Chapel, Wingate, Waxhaw, Marshville, Lake
Park, Mineral Springs, Hemby Bridge and Sturdivants.

Wind Gusts up to 45 mph will be possible in these areas.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

Gusty winds can blow down trees that are dead, or that have weakened
root systems. Outdoor furniture and similar items can be tossed
around if not anchored. Seek shelter indoors.

&&

LAT...LON 3481 8032 3482 8080 3494 8078 3526 8050
      3526 8046 3519 8051 3518 8050 3518 8048
      3517 8047 3517 8039 3518 8037 3517 8036
      3519 8028
TIME...MOT...LOC 1919Z 284DEG 32KT 3520 8050 3484 8082

07