Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
201 AM EDT Fri Sep 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A dry southwest flow of air will be setting up across the region on
Friday and linger through the weekend. Progressively warmer
temperatures are on tap through Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 150 AM, occasional convection continues to fire in the warm
sector early this morning, mainly near and east of the I-77
corridor. There's generally been enough of an eastward component to
their motion that training hasn't been much of an issue, yet. The
latest mesoscale guidance suggests some semblance of convective
coverage will persist through daybreak. In fact, the latest HRRR
depicts an uptick in coverage around 12Z. Pops have been increased
to chance along much of the I-77 corridor through the remainder of
this period. We aren't expected a whole lot out of this activity,
but will certainly need to watch for the training potential,
especially in the urban corridor along I-77.

Upper low makes little progress on Friday, but surface boundaries
move completely out of the area by Friday afternoon. Chances for
significant precip on Friday are, thus, greatly reduced. Eastward
movement of surface boundaries will also drop temperatures down to
near seasonal normals with highs on Friday 5 degrees cooler than
today. With dryer and cooler air on Friday, it may finally begin to
resemble fall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
At 200 PM Thursday: On Friday evening a large, deep closed upper low
will centered over the over the OH River Valley, with associated low
pressure extending outward to the Great Lakes, the NC Coast, and the
Gulf Coast. The low drifts slowly northeast to Southern Ontario by
Sunday evening, while upper troughing persists to to the southwest
as far as the Gulf States.

At the surface, on Friday evening a deep surface low will be over
the middle Ohio River Valley, while a weak surface front is expected
to be near the fall line of the Central to Eastern Carolinas and
Georgia. The models show dry air across most of Western Carolinas
and Northeast Georgia, with the possible exception of the Western NC
Mountains. This pattern by and large persists into Sunday, with the
result being little to no precipitation over our area. Temperatures
will exhibit an increased diurnal range due to anomalously dry air,
with minimums below or near normal, and highs above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday...It doesn't look like any changes will
need to be made to the inherited dry and warm fcst to start off the
workweek with the medium range model consensus continuing the deep
and dry wsw flow aloft atop the region.  Monday's max temperatures
are slated to be two to three categories above the early Oct climo.
Even into Tuesday, the effectively dry wx should remain with max
temperatures perhaps a few deg F less warm than persistence within
the tightening easterly flow between TC Matthew and moderately
strong sfc hipres center over New England. For the latter half of
the period, at this stage of the game, any notable affects of
Matthew are progged to be well se/e of the cwfa. So, sensible wx
remains dry and warm for Wed/Thu, with the potential for breezy
easterly and/or northerly winds given the continued strength of
the pressure gradient.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT and KHKY, surface front remains virtually stalled just west
of the terminals early this morning, with plenty of low level
moisture in place. This creates the very real potential for another
round of fog and/or low stratus this morning. In fact, KCLT was
already reporting a low MVFR cigs at issuance time, and there's
plenty of IFR cigs not too far away. Meanwhile, SHRA were near the
KCLT airfield at 0530Z (tempo'd through 07Z), and this may result in
mixing out the lower cigs, at least for a little while. Based upon
observational trends, as well as signals from the guidance, there's
enough confidence to add a mention of IFR cigs at both terminals
later this morning, but enough uncertainty exists such that these
conditions will be handled largely with tempos. The front is
expected to finally punch through by late morning, so improvement to
VFR should be rapid, with VFR conditions persisting through the end
of the period.

Elsewhere: It's now looking doubtful that earlier forecast
restrictions will materialize at KAVL. An up-valley wind of 5-10 kts
is expected to persist, which should keep temp/dewpoint spreads
around or above 5 degrees. Suppose a brief IFR cig still cannot be
ruled out (and this is hinted at in the forecast with a tempo for
FEW008/SCT020), but all restrictions have been removed from the
forecast. With drier air lingering behind frontal boundary, all
sites are forecast to see VFR conditions persist for the next 24
hours.

Outlook: VFR conditions expected in most places through the
beginning of next week as dry high pressure settles in over the area.

Confidence Table...

            06-12Z        12-18Z        18-24Z        00-06Z
KCLT       Med   75%     High  81%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High  82%     High  95%     High 100%     High 100%
KHKY       Med   73%     High  92%     High 100%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...CSH
NEAR TERM...JDL/WJM
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...CSH
AVIATION...JDL

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1033 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

NCZ033-035>037-049-050-056-057-068>072-082-501>510-SCZ008-009-014-
010245-
AVERY-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-YANCEY-MITCHELL-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-
CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-
MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-CHEROKEE-YORK-CHESTER-
1033 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PIEDMONT NORTH
CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL SLOWLY DIMINISH
ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT. UNTIL THEN...BRIEF HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ISOLATED CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ048-051>053-058-059-062>065-SCZ001>007-
010>013-019-010245-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-MADISON-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-
BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-UNION-GREENWOOD-
1033 PM EDT THU SEP 29 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
308 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

NCZ035-300730-
ALEXANDER NC-
308 AM EDT FRI SEP 30 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WILL IMPACT ALEXANDER COUNTY UNTIL 330 AM
EDT...

AT 308 AM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM NEAR
TAYLORSVILLE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 35 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
TAYLORSVILLE...STONY POINT...VASHTI...MILLERSVILLE AND HIDDENITE.

HALF INCH HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

LAT...LON 3593 8101 3584 8106 3583 8120 3600 8131
      3603 8127 3604 8119 3603 8117 3604 8113
      3604 8111 3603 8110 3603 8107 3604 8105
TIME...MOT...LOC 0708Z 157DEG 31KT 3594 8114

LANE