Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
309 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will become stationary tonight from central Georgia to
across the Carolinas as Hermine moves northeast from the Gulf.  Very
heavy rain will affect most of the Carolinas on Friday with the
passage of Hermine.  A Canadian air mass will build over the region
in the wake of the tropical cyclone. Temperatures will warm into the
middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 PM, showers and storms were gradually becoming more
numerous in the pre-frontal air mass stretched out across the NC
mtns to the NW Piedmont, making our ramp-up to a likely PoP look
good. The front itself remains on the W side of the mtns as
suspected, with the air mass ahead/S of the boundary characterized
by a CAPE in the range of 1500-2000 J/kg but minimal dCAPE. Shear is
fairly weak but should gradually increase into the evening hours.
Will not rule out a few pulse severe storms, particularly out over
the NC Piedmont per the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook. Temp trends
look okay.

The next 24 hours look dynamic and busy with all the uncertainty we
expect with a tropical cyclone approaching from the south and
interacting with an old frontal boundary. The wildcard remains the
surface boundary fcst by the various models to drop down into the
western Carolinas from the NW. Some of the guidance...in particular
the NAM...and to a lesser extent the WRF-nmm and HRRR...stall the
boundary along or just S of the I-85 corridor. Low/mid level forcing
remains modest through the overnight hours, but assuming the
boundary stalls, we will keep a focus for the development of storms
that would be fairly slow moving somewhere in the southern third of
the fcst area. As precipitable water increases with moisture pooling
on the boundary, precip efficiency should increase. The ingredients
for something akin to a PREdecessor rainfall event may come
together, per the WPC excessive rainfall outlook. The concern is
this happening over the CLT metro area later tonight. The consensus
was to NOT begin the Flash Flood Watch until the interaction between
Hermine and the old front increases around daybreak, but this will
have to be monitored closely.

For Friday, the fcst relies heavily on the track of Hermine, while
it interacts with the old boundary. This should keep a NW to SE
gradient of precip probability and amount across the fcst area thru
the day, with categorical PoP on the SE third of the fcst area, and
a much lower chance on the TN side of the mtns. Precip more directly
associated with Hermine will spread up from the S during the day,
with excellent potential for heavy rain and flash flooding from the
Lakelands to the srn part of metro CLT, thus the ongoing Flash Flood
Watch that was issued earlier around noon. Wind should not become a
problem until very late in the day. Temps will be unusually cool
owing to the strong NE flow, and extensive cloud cover and precip.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM Thursday: The remnants of TC Hermine will be situated
across the SC low country early Sat accelerating to the NE. The
op models are in decent agreement with this scenario other than the
NAM12...which although has sped up...is still a slower nw/ly
outlier. More weight will be given to the EC/GFS solns which would
still produce a good amount of rainfall through 12Z Sat. Around an
additional inch over the far ern zones. Thus the potential for
localized flash flooding will remain high through mid morning Sat.

The atmos begins to dry out through a deep layer Sat afternoon
across the entire CWFA as PWAT values drop to arnd an inch or so.
With a stable n/ly sfc flow and a very strong subs inversion setting
up arnd 12 Kft...the potential for afternoon shra/tstms will be nil.
Mainly sct fair-wx CU with highs in the L80s non/mtns and U70s mtn
valleys. Another very nice day will be in store Sun as low sfc
dewpoints prevail and the column continues to dry out. With good
insol and a modifying s/ly llvl flow...max temps will increase a cat
or so...but still a couple degrees below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 210 PM Thursday, At the start of the medium range on Sunday
night, the low pressure that was Hermine will be located off the
Delaware coast and slowly moving away.  The departure of this system
along with surface high pressure over the East states will continue
a cooling north wind into the Carolinas to start the week. However,
during the first half of the week an upper ridge will build over the
SE states resulting in temperatures progressively becoming warmer
each day into mid week.  Models show the ridge flattening out on
Thursday with 500mb flow becoming west to east on the ECMWF. The
ridge slightly reamplifies Thursday night and after the current
forecast as a trough digs over the northern Rockies.  Shortwaves in
the mid to 500mb level may be close enough going into Thursday night
to bring some convection near the mtns and therefore considering a
slight chance of rain at that time.

Max and Min temps near normal on Monday then becoming at least a
category above normal through mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
At KCLT...we begin with a VCSH to handle random development through
mid/late afternoon. Prevailing VFR conditions are expected into the
evening hours, more than likely at least through the end of evening
operations. Model guidance has some general agreement that chance
for thunderstorms will ramp up significantly around 21Z, so the
timing of a TEMPO has not changed from the earlier TAF. Any
thunderstorms could bring strong wind gusts. Uncertainty increases
during the middle part of the evening. There remains some indication
that the surface front will stall somewhere along/S of the I-85
corridor. If that happens, the boundary will be the focus for
persistent showers and storms that would bring MVFR/IFR
restrictions, but there remains much uncertainty. As a compromise,
we will use a 6SM restriction with showers starting at 01Z and then
introduce a PROB30 for thunderstorms through the early morning
hours. Winds are brought around at that time with the boundary
moving south. Expect this to be amended and fine tuned. Conditions
are expected to go downhill Friday morning as the moisture from
Hermine interacts with the old front. Ceiling should drop down
through MVFR and eventually into IFR as precip develops. Have this
tagged at 13Z for the time being, but the timing might easily slip
until late morning. Stronger winds are expected to not arrive until
after 18Z.

Elsewhere: Shower and thunderstorm development already underway near
KAVL/KHKY, so they begin with at least a VCTS. Otherwise, a similar
progression to KCLT through the overnight hours. The Upstate SC TAFS
should be similar to KCLT through the end of the period with the
development of precip and IFR conditions Friday morning. KAVL/KHKY
will be farther away from the Hermine circulation, so we should have
less of a chance of IFR restrictions.

Outlook: Aviation wx impacts Friday afternoon through early Saturday
depend upon the eventual track of Hermine. This could bring an
extended period of restrictions and gusty winds into early Saturday.
The tropical system should move fairly fast, so conditions should revert
back to VFR for the weekend and beyond.

Confidence Table...

            19-01Z        01-07Z        07-13Z        13-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High  94%     High  84%
KGSP       High 100%     High  98%     High  92%     High  81%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     Med   74%     High  83%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  83%     High  88%
KGMU       High 100%     High  97%     High  92%     High  85%
KAND       High 100%     High  94%     High  90%     High  88%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...Flash Flood Watch from Friday morning through late Friday
     night for GAZ029.
NC...Flash Flood Watch from Friday morning through late Friday
     night for NCZ070>072-082.
SC...Flash Flood Watch from Friday morning through late Friday
     night for SCZ009-011>014-019.

&&

SYNOPSIS...DEO
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...SBK
LONG TERM...DEO
AVIATION...PM

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
355 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016

GAZ010-017-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-505-507-509-
SCZ001>003-022000-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-
GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-
HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-
PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
355 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE
MOUNTAINS AND FOOTHILLS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE
MAIN THREATS WILL BE CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING COULD DEVELOP... ESPECIALLY
TOWARD THIS EVENING IF MULTIPLE STORMS PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL
MOVE OVER THE SAME LOCATIONS. IN ADDITION...A SEVERE STORM OR TWO
PRODUCING BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ018-026-028-NCZ035>037-056-057-068-069-502-504-506-508-510-
SCZ004>008-010-022000-
STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-
CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-
GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-ANDERSON-
355 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA...WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE
FROM CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...SEVERE
STORMS PRODUCING BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN OR PERHAPS EVEN STALL ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF TROPICAL
STORM HERMINE...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR TRAINING OF
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN AT LEAST A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT THIS EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

..FRIDAY...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE IS
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND PUSH
INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. HEAVY RAIN AND BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT AND EASTERN FOOTHILLS...
ESPECIALLY NEAR THE INTERSTATE 85 CORRIDOR. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO
YOUR FAVORITE WEATHER SOURCE FOR THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

GAZ029-NCZ070>072-082-SCZ009-011>014-019-022000-
ELBERT-GASTON-MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-YORK-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-
CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
355 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT...

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...PIEDMONT
NORTH CAROLINA AND UPSTATE SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE IN COVERAGE AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE FROM CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...A COUPLE SEVERE STORMS PRODUCING BRIEF DAMAGING WINDS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT THROUGH THE EVENING.

THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN OR PERHAPS EVEN STALL ACROSS THE
AREA TONIGHT. AS MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE IN ADVANCE OF TROPICAL
STORM HERMINE...CONDITIONS WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR TRAINING OF
HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT. THIS WOULD
RESULT IN A LOCALIZED FLASH FLOOD THREAT ACROSS THE PIEDMONT THIS
EVENING THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

..FRIDAY...HEAVY RAIN POSSIBLE. TROPICAL CYCLONE HERMINE IS
FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHEAST OUT OF THE GULF OF MEXICO...AND PUSH
INTO SOUTH CAROLINA. HEAVY RAIN AND WINDY CONDITIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MOST OF THE PIEDMONT...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND
SOUTHEAST OF INTERSTATE 85. AREAS FROM THE LAKELANDS NORTH TO THE
SOUTHERN CHARLOTTE METRO AREA COULD SEE ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...POSSIBLY RESULTING IN FLASH
FLOODING OF SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS. PLEASE STAY TUNED TO YOUR
FAVORITE WEATHER SOURCE FOR THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...SPOTTERS ARE ENCOURAGED TO RELAY
REPORTS OF FLOODING AND SEVERE WEATHER TO THE GREENVILLE
SPARTANBURG NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE.

NONE.

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

<!doctype html>
<html lang="en">
<head>
  <meta charset="utf-8">
  <meta name="viewport" content="width=device-width, initial-scale=1">
  <title>Service Notice</title>
  <link rel="stylesheet" href="index.css">
</head>
<body>
  <main class="wrap">
    <section class="card" role="status" aria-live="polite">
      <div class="status" id="status">Temporary Notice</div>
      <h1 id="headline">This service is currently unavailable.</h1>
      <p id="message1">
        The site you requested is temporarily down for maintenance or an unexpected outage.
      </p>
      <p id="message2">
        Please try again in a few minutes.
      </p>
      <p class="small" id="detail">
        If you are an administrator, restore upstream service and remove the redirect/fallback rule when normal operations resume.
      </p>
    </section>
  </main>
  <script src="index.js"></script>
</body>
</html>

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
401 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016

SCZ004-005-012030-
GREATER OCONEE SC-GREATER PICKENS SC-
401 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
SOUTHEASTERN OCONEE AND SOUTHWESTERN PICKENS COUNTIES UNTIL 430 PM
EDT...

AT 401 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
INTENSE LIGHTNING NEAR SENECA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... CLEMSON...SENECA...CENTRAL...SIX
MILE...NORRIS...WESTMINSTER...LAKE KEOWEE AND TOWNVILLE.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3466 8308 3468 8307 3476 8297 3483 8286
      3472 8269 3467 8279 3455 8292
TIME...MOT...LOC 2001Z 218DEG 9KT 3467 8295

07

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
404 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016

NCZ508-012030-
GREATER RUTHERFORD NC-
404 PM EDT THU SEP 1 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
SOUTHEASTERN RUTHERFORD COUNTY UNTIL 430 PM EDT...

AT 404 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
INTENSE LIGHTNING NEAR FOREST CITY...OR NEAR SPINDALE...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... FOREST
CITY...RUTHERFORDTON...SPINDALE...ELLENBORO...BOSTIC...SUNSHINE...
CAROLEEN...HARRIS AND HENRIETTA.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 40 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3552 8182 3536 8170 3527 8174 3526 8174
      3521 8194 3524 8197 3526 8197 3527 8198
      3536 8205
TIME...MOT...LOC 2004Z 240DEG 9KT 3533 8192

07