Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
433 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A tropical system will move toward the North Carolina Outer Banks
through Tuesday before likely moving back out to sea by mid week. A
cold front will approach the region from the northwest Wednesday
night into Thursday, with another tropical system likely emerging
from the Gulf of Mexico. There remains a great deal of uncertainty
with the Gulf system but there are no imminent threats to our area
at this point.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
At 430 PM Sunday: An upper ridge was centered near the Delmarva
Peninsula this afternoon, extending inland to the central
appalachians. Meanwhile an upper low associated with a surface
tropical; system was off the SC/GA coasts. By monday the upper ridge
nearly splits in two, with center over KY and NW of Bermuda, while
the upper low reaches the SC/GA coasts.

At the surface, the bulk of low level moisture was located over the
NC mountains and along the NC/SC coasts this afternoon, while drier
air was working its way southwest over the piedmont. The best
chances of convective development will remain across the mountains
but will be sparse even there. Have updated PoP to show this trend
and decrease clouds based on latest sat pix. Model soundings suggest
this activity will diminish early this evening. Although instability
is present on Monday, model soundings suggest significant drying in
the afternoon, ostensibly relate to subsidence on the west side of a
coastal tropical system. This would limit convective chances over
much of our area. Temperatures will run near normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Sunday, Tropical Depression Eight (or a named
system) will likely be positioned just off the NC Outer Banks
Tuesday morning - situated in a weakness in the upper level ridge
along the East Coast. The main question for our forecast area will
be whether or not any tropical moisture from the system can work
west across the piedmont. Consensus keeps the better moisture
confined to the coast, with very low end precipitation chances
reaching our lower piedmont, and a secondary and better maximum of
PoP over the mountain ridges in scattered diurnal convection.

Falling heights from the north on Wednesday should permit the
coastal tropical circulation to begin moving back out over the open
water. Meanwhile, a surface cold front will slowly approach from the
northwest but remain NW of the area through late day. Again, the
bifurcated PoP forecast will feature slight chance eastern piedmont
PoPs but with the best focus for continued diurnal thunderstorm
chances over the mountains. Temperatures will continue slightly
above climo.

Any development in the Gulf with the current 99L system, and
associated impacts on the western Carolinas and NE GA, should become
much more apparent by Tue/Wed.  No adjustments to sensible weather
from this system will be needed for our area through late Wed at
this point.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 PM EDT Sunday, the medium range fcst picks up at 00Z on
Thursday with an upper trof digging down over the Great Lakes and
a very steep upper ridge spreading over the central CONUS. In
addition, a tropical disturbance that is currently located just
north of Cuba is expected to be located off the west coast of
Florida by the start of the medium range. As we move into Friday,
the trof axis will move NE of the fcst area and eventually move
offshore while the upper ridge spreads farther east eventually
encompassing most of the CONUS. At the sfc, a fairly complex
synoptic pattern will likely exist to start the period early
Thursday. The tropical low corresponding to the above mentioned
upper low is expected to be located a couple hundred miles off the
west coast of Florida. The long range models continue to differ
with respect to the strengthening of the system and to a lesser
extent the track, over the next few days. As has been the case
for days now, the ECMWF has a deeper low and moves the system
faster and farther north than the GFS. The CMC is also deeper
than the GFS and moves the low even farther westward and then
inland than the ECMWF. The main discrepancy lies in the strength
of the Canadian sfc high that settles over the Great Lakes on
Thurs and Fri. If the high is strong enough and able to move far
enough south early in the period, it will keep the low from
advancing as far north on Fri and Sat. By Sunday, the models agree
that the high will be sliding off the New England Coast and will
have less of an impact steering the tropical low. As for the
sensible fcst, if the current 12Z GFS solution verifies our CWFA
would remain mostly dry. If the older 00Z ECMWF verifies, we would
see more deep moisture over our SE zones but drier air over NW
half of the CWFA. Only the Canadian solution brings deep tropical
moisture over the entire fcst area, and thus widespread precipitation.
I have opted for a blend of the GFS and ECMWF solutions with solid
chance POPs on Thurs, Fri, and Sat and mostly dry conditions for
Sunday. Temps will start out above climatology and cool to near
or even slightly below climo by the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
At KCLT and elsewhere: Drier air moving in from the northwest will
not be very supportive of afternoon convection today or Monday.
Winds are expected to favor the northeast at foothills sites, and
the north at KAVL. A guidance blend only favors a daybreak vsby
restrictions at KAVL, with IFR there. Guidance does favor a daybreak
cig restriction at KCLT.

Outlook: Ridging will persist across the region into early next
week. Convective chances may be limited by sinking air to the west
of a tropical system at the coast. Patchy fog will be most favored
in mountain valleys.

Confidence Table...

            20-02Z        02-08Z        08-14Z        14-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       Low   56%     High 100%     High  84%     High 100%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  91%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...HG
NEAR TERM...JAT/RWH
SHORT TERM...HG
LONG TERM...JPT
AVIATION...JAT/RWH

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
303 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062>065-501-503-
505-507-509-SCZ001>005-010-291915-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-
MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-
SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-
POLK MOUNTAINS-OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-
GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-ANDERSON-
303 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST GEORGIA...WESTERN
NORTH CAROLINA AND THE WESTERN UPSTATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY THIS EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS
AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA AND GEORGIA FOOTHILLS. THE MAIN THREATS
WILL BE FROM CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ035>037-056-057-068>072-082-502-504-506-508-510-SCZ006>009-
011>014-019-291915-
ALEXANDER-IREDELL-DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-GREATER CALDWELL-GREATER BURKE-
EASTERN MCDOWELL-GREATER RUTHERFORD-EASTERN POLK-GREATER GREENVILLE-
SPARTANBURG-CHEROKEE-YORK-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
303 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
OF WESTERN NORTH CAROLINA...AND THE EASTERN UPSTATE OF SOUTH
CAROLINA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..WEDNESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
1244 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

NCZ048-281715-
MADISON NC-
1244 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
MADISON COUNTY UNTIL 115 PM EDT...

AT 1244 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM
WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING 9 MILES NORTH OF MARSHALL...OR 7 MILES EAST OF
HOT SPRINGS...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOT SPRINGS...ALLENSTAND...WALNUT AND SPRING CREEK.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. HEAVY RAINFALL WILL ALSO
PRODUCE DEEP STANDING WATER IN LOW LYING AREAS AND RAPID STREAM
RISES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3602 8264 3585 8259 3576 8283 3595 8288
      3595 8285 3592 8282 3593 8280 3594 8281
      3597 8278 3599 8279 3600 8277 3600 8276
      3602 8273
TIME...MOT...LOC 1644Z 077DEG 5KT 3593 8271

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
154 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

NCZ048-281830-
MADISON NC-
154 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
MADISON COUNTY UNTIL 230 PM EDT...

AT 154 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
INTENSE LIGHTNING 11 MILES NORTH OF MARSHALL...OR 10 MILES NORTHWEST
OF MARS HILL...MOVING WEST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOT SPRINGS...ALLENSTAND AND WALNUT.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP
TO 40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS. HEAVY RAINFALL MAY ALSO
FLOOD LOW LYING AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3605 8262 3603 8259 3600 8261 3599 8260
      3597 8261 3595 8257 3596 8255 3586 8256
      3583 8289 3595 8288 3595 8285 3592 8282
      3597 8278 3598 8279 3600 8278 3605 8267
      3606 8265
TIME...MOT...LOC 1754Z 093DEG 12KT 3596 8264

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
225 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

NCZ048-281900-
MADISON NC-
225 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL AND FREQUENT
LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT NORTHWESTERN MADISON COUNTY UNTIL 300 PM EDT...

AT 224 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
INTENSE LIGHTNING 11 MILES NORTH OF MARSHALL...OR 11 MILES NORTHWEST
OF MARS HILL...MOVING WEST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOT SPRINGS...ALLENSTAND...WALNUT AND FAUST.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...PEA SIZE HAIL...WIND GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH AND VERY HEAVY RAINFALL RATES OF 1 TO 2 INCHES PER HOUR WILL
BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3603 8259 3600 8261 3599 8260 3597 8261
      3595 8257 3596 8255 3588 8254 3585 8283
      3595 8286 3595 8285 3592 8282 3593 8281
      3597 8278 3599 8279 3600 8277 3602 8272
      3605 8268 3606 8262
TIME...MOT...LOC 1824Z 083DEG 13KT 3596 8265

HG

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
601 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

NCZ051-282245-
SWAIN NC-
601 PM EDT SUN AUG 28 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT CENTRAL
SWAIN COUNTY UNTIL 645 PM EDT...

AT 600 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
INTENSE LIGHTNING 9 MILES NORTHWEST OF BRYSON CITY...OR 5 MILES EAST
OF SMOKY MOUNTAINS-FONTANA AREA...MOVING WEST AT 5 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
FONTANA LAKE...SMOKY MOUNTAINS-TWENTYMILE CREEK...SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-NEWFOUND GAP...SMOKY MOUNTAINS-FONTANA AREA...SMOKY
MOUNTAINS-CLINGMANS DOME...FONTANA VILLAGE...SMOKY MOUNTAINS-DEEP
CREEK...DEALS GAP...TAPOCO AND LUADA.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...PEA SIZE HAIL AND WIND GUSTS UP TO
40 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TORRENTIAL RAINFALL MAY FLOOD AREAS WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SUCH AS
DITCHES AND UNDERPASSES. AVOID THESE AREAS AND DO NOT CROSS FLOODED
ROADS. WATER LEVELS OF SMALL STREAMS MAY ALSO RISE RAPIDLY. SEEK
HIGHER GROUND IF THREATENED BY FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT DRIVE ACROSS
FLOODED ROADS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3552 8388 3553 8382 3556 8377 3558 8360
      3556 8358 3556 8350 3561 8345 3561 8341
      3538 8348 3539 8359 3543 8359 3543 8361
      3544 8364 3543 8365 3545 8380 3544 8381
      3545 8386 3547 8390 3545 8394 3546 8395
TIME...MOT...LOC 2200Z 104DEG 5KT 3551 8357

CDG