Special Weather Statement, NWS Greenville-Spartanburg, SC

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Greenville-Spartanburg SC
237 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the Western Atlantic will weaken and move eastward
while allowing a weak front to become stationary across our area
Thursday. This front will slowly dissipate as it acts as a focus for
afternoon showers and thunderstorms into the weekend. A stronger
cold front will move in from the northwest early next week, bringing
cooler and drier air by the middle of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 pm EDT: The most recent HRRR model runs focus convective
develop this afternoon along the eastern slopes of the mountains and
secondarily along the lower piedmont in a weak convergence axis.
This has verified fairly well thus far and the mountain activity is
expected to push east through late day in the improving westerly
steering flow to increase PoPs out along I-40. High dewpoints are
producing SBCAPE values of 2500+ J/kg east of the mountains. Surface
DCAPE remains highest over the lower piedmont and this is where
isolated severe wind gust potential would be the highest in the
tallest storms. The HRRR keeps spotty activity going overnight while
the NAMNest solution is more outflow driven and generally clears the
convection out beyond this evening. Will keep at least isolated PoP
going well into the morning hours for lingering showers in a nod
toward the HRRR's run to run consistency.

Otherwise, the southeast ridge will continue to flatten through
Thursday. Weak lobes of vorticity will ride over the ridge but
generally stay N/NW of the area. A weak front/trough will settle
into the southern Appalachians overnight and stall/dissipate through
Thu. Continued instability arising from heating and 70s dewpoints,
along with a weak boundary in the vicinity, will yield another round
of scattered to numerous thunderstorms on Thursday. Mins will
continue 5 to 10 degrees above climo, with maxes a category or two
above climo.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM Wed: Expectations for Thu-Fri have not changed much
from the previous forecast cycle. A weak frontal boundary will
extend from low pressure near the Canadian Maritimes southwestward
into the southern Plains on Thursday morning. Thermal advection
invof the front over our area looks to be essentially nonexistent,
though it will provide a source of low-level convergence. In the
presence of abundant moisture and modestly unstable profiles,
it is logical to expect enhanced convective coverage, with
locally heavy rainfall rates likely (and profiles supportive of
training/backbuilding). One interesting development is that the 4km
NAM develops only isolated showers out of these ingredients. The
NAM has done a bit better of late in depicting convective coverage,
so seeing that I opted not to increase PoPs, keeping them in chance
range across the forecast area.

The front will lay out from west to east across GA/SC Friday as
the parent low moves even further away, eventually stalling. It's
hard to pick out exactly where, or if, there will be a band of
forcing. Models generally produce less activity overall on Friday,
compared to Thursday. However it remains prudent to maintain PoPs
in chance range. PWAT values are slightly higher, suggesting still
better rainfall rates, under the continued unidirectional flow
regime. Westerly low-level flow does imply upsloping will initiate
activity over the NC/TN border, but it is not distinct enough to
expect downsloping will have a negative effect over the Piedmont.

Max temps will be near normal, with mins a category or so above
normal due to overnight cloud cover and excessive moisture.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 115 PM Wed: No major changes were made to the ext range fst.
The SE CONUS will remain in warm/moist environ Sun with Bermuda High
ridging aligned to the south while a cold front pushes into middle
TN. This front will cross into the NC mtns Sun night and lose its
definition through Mon. There will be a decent airmass change behind
the front...but the lower theta/e air will not start filtering into
the nrn CWFA until late afternoon Mon or early Tue. Thus...Mon will
be another warm and humid day for most areas...esp south of I-40.
Pops will remain fairly high across the mtns with increased llvl
convrg and low chances over the non/mtns. On Tue...the cP airmass
should mix across the entire CWFA and lower the pop/tstm potential
as llvl stability increases underneath broad ridging aloft. Low-end
pops will be confined across the higher ridge tops. A welcomed
lowering change in temps/tds from the recent dog day pattern will be
noticeable as max temps are held a cat or so below normal and tds
drop into the lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KCLT: Weak piedmont convection has already developed in the
vicinity of KCLT, but has remained mainly east of the airfield thus
far. TEMPO TSRA has been moved up to 19Z to accommodate this
activity, with VCSH all evening. Any restrictions should be confined
to brief vsby restrictions under any downpours. Given the high
downdraft CAPE nearby, the TEMPO will also feature low end wind
gusts. Otherwise, expect VFR conditions with shower/thunderstorm
coverage diminishing overnight. The boundary layer remains quite
moist, but model/MOS consensus is for no nearby AM stratus on
Thursday. Will pick up PROB thunder again after 16Z. Light winds
will continue from the SW.

Elsewhere: Triggering along the high terrain will keep tstm coverage
the greatest from KAVL to near KHKY through early evening. The
mountain activity could get an eastward push out along I-40 in
westerly steering flow, but will keep only VCSH after 00Z at KHKY.
Convection will be spottier across the SC terminal sites with just
VCTS through late afternoon. Mountain valley fog and low stratus
will be hard to pin down given the likelihood of debris clouds from
the evening/upstream convection. Will feature a window of IFR fog at
KAVL starting at 09Z, but with restrictions less likely across the
foothills unless heavy rain falls at the airfield.

Outlook: Thunderstorms will gradually increase in coverage through
Friday and into the weekend as another cold front approaches from
the northwest. The front should arrive early next week to continue
the thunderstorm activity through Monday. Morning fog/stratus will
be possible each day in the NC mountain valleys, and possibly in
locations that receive soaking rains the previous aftn/evening.

Confidence Table...

            18-24Z        00-06Z        06-12Z        12-18Z
KCLT       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KGSP       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAVL       High 100%     High 100%     High  86%     High  95%
KHKY       High 100%     High 100%     High  94%     High 100%
KGMU       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High 100%
KAND       High 100%     High 100%     High 100%     High  98%

The percentage reflects the number of guidance members agreeing
with the scheduled TAF issuance flight rule category. Complete hourly
experimental aviation forecast consistency tables and ensemble forecasts
are available at the following link:

www.weather.gov/gsp/aviation

&&

.GSP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
GA...None.
NC...None.
SC...None.

&&

SYNOPSIS...SBK
NEAR TERM...HG
SHORT TERM...JAT
LONG TERM...SBK
AVIATION...HG

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
700 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

GAZ010-017-018-026-028-029-NCZ035>037-056-057-064-065-068>072-082-
501>510-SCZ001>014-019-181100-
RABUN-HABERSHAM-STEPHENS-FRANKLIN-HART-ELBERT-ALEXANDER-IREDELL-
DAVIE-CATAWBA-ROWAN-TRANSYLVANIA-HENDERSON-CLEVELAND-LINCOLN-GASTON-
MECKLENBURG-CABARRUS-UNION-CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-GREATER CALDWELL-
BURKE MOUNTAINS-GREATER BURKE-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS-EASTERN MCDOWELL-
RUTHERFORD MOUNTAINS-GREATER RUTHERFORD-POLK MOUNTAINS-EASTERN POLK-
OCONEE MOUNTAINS-PICKENS MOUNTAINS-GREENVILLE MOUNTAINS-
GREATER OCONEE-GREATER PICKENS-GREATER GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG-
CHEROKEE-YORK-ANDERSON-ABBEVILLE-LAURENS-CHESTER-GREENWOOD-
700 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT
OF NORTH CAROLINA...SOUTH CAROLINA...AND NORTHEAST GEORGIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET...BUT A FEW STORMS MAY LINGER
OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

NCZ033-048>053-058-059-062-063-181100-
AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-SWAIN-HAYWOOD-BUNCOMBE-GRAHAM-
NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-
700 AM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR A PORTION OF WESTERN NORTH
CAROLINA NEAR THE TENNESSEE BORDER.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS
AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION TO CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...ANY
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
WHILE COVERAGE WILL DIMINISH TO SOME DEGREE BY SUNSET...SCATTERED
STORMS MAY LINGER OVER THE AREA INTO TONIGHT.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.

..THURSDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..FRIDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SATURDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..SUNDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..MONDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.
..TUESDAY...NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

NONE.

WIMBERLEY

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
131 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

NCZ048-053-171800-
BUNCOMBE NC-MADISON NC-
131 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT SOUTH
CENTRAL MADISON AND NORTHWESTERN BUNCOMBE COUNTIES UNTIL 200 PM
EDT...

AT 130 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
INTENSE LIGHTNING 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARSHALL...OR 5 MILES WEST OF
LEICESTER...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 15 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE...
MARSHALL...WOODFIN...WEAVERVILLE...LEICESTER...B.R. PARKWAY-EAST
ASHEVILLE TO CRAGGY GARDENS...NORTH ASHEVILLE...CANTO AND LUCK.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3567 8245 3557 8277 3558 8278 3559 8278
      3560 8280 3563 8281 3562 8283 3571 8290
      3590 8262
TIME...MOT...LOC 1730Z 239DEG 15KT 3568 8277

07

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
214 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

NCZ063-064-171845-
TRANSYLVANIA NC-SOUTHERN JACKSON NC-
214 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
SOUTHEASTERN JACKSON AND SOUTHWESTERN TRANSYLVANIA COUNTIES UNTIL 245
PM EDT...

AT 213 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
INTENSE LIGHTNING 17 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BREVARD...OR NEAR LAKE
TOXAWAY...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 10 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... ROSMAN...LAKE TOXAWAY...GORGES
STATE PARK...CASHIERS...SAPPHIRE...WOLF MOUNTAIN...BALSAM
GROVE...SASSAFRAS MOUNTAIN AND BAD CREEK.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3530 8289 3508 8274 3508 8275 3507 8275
      3507 8278 3508 8278 3509 8279 3502 8303
      3514 8312
TIME...MOT...LOC 1813Z 240DEG 8KT 3511 8299

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SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
239 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

NCZ049-505-506-171915-
YANCEY NC-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS NC-EASTERN MCDOWELL NC-
239 PM EDT WED AUG 17 2016

...A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH INTENSE LIGHTNING WILL IMPACT
SOUTHEASTERN YANCEY AND MCDOWELL COUNTIES UNTIL 315 PM EDT...

AT 239 PM EDT...DOPPLER RADAR WAS TRACKING A STRONG THUNDERSTORM WITH
INTENSE LIGHTNING 10 MILES WEST OF MARION...OR NEAR B.R.
PARKWAY-CRAGGY TO LITTLE SWITZERLAND...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 20 MPH.

LOCATIONS TO BE IMPACTED INCLUDE... MARION...OLD FORT...LAKE
JAMES...B.R. PARKWAY-CRAGGY TO LITTLE SWITZERLAND...LAKE JAMES STATE
PARK...MOUNT MITCHELL STATE PARK...NORTH COVE...WOODLAWN...NEBO AND
PLEASANT GARDENS.

IN ADDITION TO INTENSE LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS UP TO 50 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

GUSTY WINDS CAN BLOW DOWN TREES THAT ARE DEAD...OR THAT HAVE WEAKENED
ROOT SYSTEMS. OUTDOOR FURNITURE AND SIMILAR ITEMS CAN BE TOSSED
AROUND IF NOT ANCHORED. SEEK SHELTER INDOORS.

FREQUENT LIGHTNING IS OCCURRING WITH THIS STORM. IF OUTDOORS...TRY TO
GET INDOORS OR INTO A HARD TOPPED VEHICLE. OTHERWISE...STAY AWAY FROM
OPEN AREAS AND ISOLATED HIGH OBJECTS SUCH AS TREES. WHEN INDOORS...
STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS AND DOORS AND AVOID USING WIRED ELECTRONIC
DEVICES. DO NOT TAKE A SHOWER OR BATH. TRY TO UNPLUG UNNECESSARY
APPLIANCES BEFORE THE STORM APPROACHES.

&&

LAT...LON 3589 8196 3584 8193 3582 8196 3582 8197
      3581 8199 3573 8188 3565 8184 3564 8185
      3557 8223 3570 8229 3570 8228 3571 8228
      3574 8231
TIME...MOT...LOC 1839Z 249DEG 18KT 3568 8219

07